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Everything posted by dendrite
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December 2021 Obs/Disco...Dreaming of a White-Weenie Xmas
dendrite replied to 40/70 Benchmark's topic in New England
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It nailed H5 over Belarus though
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It was way flatter than most models for a couple days.
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There's the ramp up in QPF I was betting on.
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December 2021 Obs/Disco...Dreaming of a White-Weenie Xmas
dendrite replied to 40/70 Benchmark's topic in New England
Sign me up for this one that didn't work if we can get the following month to verify. -
Remember what warm ground did in Oct 11? We have low level CAA for the next 2 hours...wetbulbs will be plenty cold over the interior zones come go-time. The models do a pretty good job of accounting for virga as well...especially those with more resolution/vertical levels. These SWFEs tend to not deliver many surprises for those in the all-snow zone.
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Enjoy the 5-8”.
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December 2021 Obs/Disco...Dreaming of a White-Weenie Xmas
dendrite replied to 40/70 Benchmark's topic in New England
Ray would lose it if that verifies. -
3k NAM gets a little lift into the DGZ on the front edge up here, but it won't really matter when the eventual baking soda compacts it down anyway. There could still be some dry air below that at the start as well to eat up any above average snow growth. H55 is way up there when trying to get any precip down to the sfc on the front end with low level CAA. GFS is still fairly moist...0.70-0.90". No surprises here...sticking with 5-8".
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Just close your eyes and throw all of your eggs into the Ukie QPF.
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I've been on the 9:1 train, but expecting QPF to slightly ramp up a bit. I actually like the 6-8" for up here although maybe it's a little high MHT-south. We'll see.
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December 2021 Obs/Disco...Dreaming of a White-Weenie Xmas
dendrite replied to 40/70 Benchmark's topic in New England
It was strange driving past Winnisquam with not one bit of ice on Sunday morning. One of these years the fishing derby will be canceled. -
December 2021 Obs/Disco...Dreaming of a White-Weenie Xmas
dendrite replied to 40/70 Benchmark's topic in New England
For the 2nd time in a week I woke up to a warmer airmass behind the cold front. 44.9F -
I like those brutally cold SWFEs that start out below zero F at the surface up here which actually deliver decent ratios for a good chunk of the event.
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December 2021 Obs/Disco...Dreaming of a White-Weenie Xmas
dendrite replied to 40/70 Benchmark's topic in New England
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December 2021 Obs/Disco...Dreaming of a White-Weenie Xmas
dendrite replied to 40/70 Benchmark's topic in New England
It’d be funny if my avg high is lower than you this month with these days where I don’t mix out. -
December 2021 Obs/Disco...Dreaming of a White-Weenie Xmas
dendrite replied to 40/70 Benchmark's topic in New England
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December 2021 Obs/Disco...Dreaming of a White-Weenie Xmas
dendrite replied to 40/70 Benchmark's topic in New England
Back down to 38°. Super torch fail this week. -
December 2021 Obs/Disco...Dreaming of a White-Weenie Xmas
dendrite replied to 40/70 Benchmark's topic in New England
What a miserable day. 39.6° and heavy fog off of a high of 41°. The front is on the north side of CON right now. MHT airport was partly sunny and 56° on the car thermo…upper 40s and BKN at CON. You hit that cold air/fog like a wall. -
Looks like all systems go up here. Euro pounds around midnight Sat night.
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That cold knifes in just in time for SNE to get frozen. Looks like the best fronto rides up the 295K isentropic surface while the warm tongue comes in up around 310K...gotta love the mixed bag overrunning events.
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The euro is near warning criteria up here now. Mixing is up to S NH so there’s plenty of wiggle room. That should guarantee a white Christmas.
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Pingers right up to the coop after a decent thump.