dendrite

The H7 flow tries to back a little toward the end, but it seems like there isn’t a lot there right now to create anything more than a brief 850 and lower spin up. The trough axis is still over MI midday Monday. That sorta keeps some mid level fluffies continuing through the day until the upper system passes, but it all seems too disjointed to me right now for any kind of deeper system potentially developing (although some runs did try to go crazy once in the GOM). But even something more shallow could try to get the conveyors going and enhance the rates in parts of SNE. But I agree…we’ve seen big changes at this time out before.

Still not a big difference sensibly. Of course all models are pretty much SW flow right down to H7 for the entirety so I’m not sure how much a little difference at H5 will make.

GFS has that James Bay S/w now too

It’s the icon so take it fwiw, but for my latitude I didn’t like seeing the northern stream putting more of its energy into advancing that Ontario shortwave along quicker versus dumping it into the backside of that trough like previous runs did. There’s more action around James Bay this run too trying to kick pieces along.

Gut feeling is ICON ticks south…seems to be a bit more suppression in the northern stream edit….looks like it ended up not being a major difference sensibly

I would gladly trade

I like the downsloping vector too

If I measure in May did it even snow all winter?

Yeah I don’t see lollies to 24”.

I can’t wait for BOX to delete his total from the PNS

Mike Margavage

This will be one of those events too where Ray is clearing every 6hrs and ends up with 5” more than the guy across the street who sticks his yardstick in at the end. 1”+ of QPF as primarily fluff will have natural compaction.

1.0”/0.04” of pure fluff

Flaking 17.6°

It was snowing 17.5°

Have you taught him about the Tolland downslope?

Nah it’s good how you have it. Let him keep feeling the anxiety whenever he views it.

No bueno

Northern stream didn’t phase in and actually kept pace and interfered with the leading southern energy.

LBSNE

Ray bitched his exhaust to me

Strange look aloft compared to other models…dumps the PV lobe/nrn stream much further SW and then redevelops the ULL over W NY where the srn stream pva goes to town.

What a time to be alive

The 12z ggem really keeps the baroclinic zone more west for the more phased dynamics to catch up and act on it rather than escaping east too quickly.