dendrite

I’m not used to seeing 2 Vermonters fighting with each other. It’s supposed to be a zen utopia over there. Tensions are rising from the lack of snow.

Last 5 runs at 925…mostly noise?

I mean 850 is cooler, but no changes at 925.

Not sure what some of you are seeing. NAM looks just as warm as 00z last night and DIT is definitely going over 40.

Euro is on its own with the 925mb temps.

Not yet

Yeah we’re getting into the return flow now…gonna be tough to bottom out unless you’re in a sheltered valley. Maybe we can lighten up the wind a little before sunrise.

I mean it was just a tick at one level to keep it an isothermal 0c versus a warm nose of +1C at 850. Still torched overall.

Nammy coming in a tick cooler at 850 letting the snow hold on longer over Worcester county.

I did have a spike downward a little after 10am in the middle of the steadily rising barometer.

Maybe I should’ve said 6-10”. It’s basically a 6-8hr window for heavy rates so everything has to go right to realize that liquid. We’re upgliding over a cold dome and will push that coastal front more inland than usual, but that still a lot of QPF to squeeze in there for 6hrs in the form of snow. In the back of my head I see this ticking warmer with the changeover leaning toward the warmer models. So if it ends up colder more toward 10” there and if it ends up warmer then more toward the lower end. Like I said to dryslot, it’s basically a race between the warmth and the precip. And with the modeled rates there’s bust potential either way if it stays snow 2hrs longer versus raining 2hrs sooner. It’ll be a fun one to watch play out. Hopefully you stay mostly snow until the midlevel dry slot pushes through. It should be really pastey during the day.

Weenie. I'm not going there. I have no idea what you have for pack or the water content in it. You'll have 40s for a few hours...for a bit in the warm sector and then after the CAA kicks in from the SW.

These mesolows aren't your typical secondary redeveloping triple-point lows. These are little convective mesolows forming along the warm conveyor. They're not having an influence on your pack.

Did you look at the model? It's still through BGM.

I don't think H5 matters much at this point...it's out in NY. We just need to keep that cold wedged as long as possible. It's a race between the precip and WAA.

Definitely a little bit better CAD up here.

H7 looked a tick more west…and it’s definitely ripping that MLJ more westward into upstate NY. (I’m using 00z) What a waste of deformation snows too….lines up perfectly over lakes Erie and Ontario.

Not picking one I already experienced firsthand...so I'll go with Feb '69.

The euro is easily the coldest with 925 temps Mon morning and it's not even close...that's compared to the NAM, GFS, Ukie, GGEM, and RGEM. I didn't not look at the Navy. Sorry George.

I've been waiting for my paste bomb, but I either end up too far west or just a little too warm. At least I know how to line up my deformation bands.

Maybe a tick colder, but not much difference. What a QPF bomb though...like 1.25" in 6hrs. Whoever is getting snow in that will be getting 2-3"/hr. Romping in Randolph.

Gene is a tough one...with his elevation and interior location a couple ticks colder and he could be in business for something bigger. But I just feel like this ends up something closer to the NAM. Of course the Euro is coming out now and it'll probably give him 15" in a few minutes. lol

I'm not trying to poo poo it. I just think there's a lot of flags and I wouldn't be going aggressive onto the colder side of guidance. A lot has to go right for us to see big paste out of this. Phin's in another world with his east facing terrain which may help him squeeze out another 1F colder and more QPF.

The GFS ptype maps on COD have me getting heavy snow at 51hr, but when you look at the sounding it’s +2C at H95. Date: 51 hour GFS valid 15Z MON 17 JAN 22 Station: 43.43,-71.62 Latitude: 43.43 Longitude: -71.62 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- LEV PRES HGHT TEMP DEWP RH DD WETB DIR SPD THETA THE-V THE-W THE-E W mb m C C % C C deg knt K K K K g/kg ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SFC 953 267 1.9 1.8 99 0.2 1.8 88 16 278.9 279.7 277.4 291.5 4.56 2 950 289 2.0 1.8 99 0.2 1.9 93 24 279.2 280.0 277.5 291.8 4.57 3 900 725 0.1 0.1 100 0.0 0.1 98 46 281.6 282.4 278.4 293.6 4.28 4 850 1182 -1.5 -1.6 99 0.1 -1.5 106 58 284.6 285.3 279.5 295.9 4.00 5 800 1663 -3.3 -3.5 99 0.2 -3.4 115 69 287.6 288.3 280.6 298.2 3.69 6 750 2172 -4.7 -5.0 98 0.3 -4.8 127 79 291.4 292.1 282.1 301.7 3.51 7 700 2715 -5.4 -5.8 97 0.4 -5.5 142 84 296.5 297.2 284.2 307.1 3.55 8 650 3294 -8.0 -8.5 96 0.5 -8.2 147 82 299.9 300.5 285.1 309.4 3.09 9 600 3912 -11.2 -11.9 95 0.6 -11.5 149 80 303.1 303.6 285.7 311.1 2.56 10 550 4574 -15.2 -15.7 96 0.5 -15.4 151 76 306.0 306.4 286.2 312.5 2.04 11 500 5288 -19.8 -20.3 95 0.5 -19.9 156 72 309.0 309.2 286.7 313.9 1.52

This is going to be in and out of here relatively quickly. So I’m selling those modeled 1.5” QPF bombs in 6 hours in the form of snow. I could see a couple of hours of heavy here and maybe 4-5 hours around Gene, but I think there’s going to be a period where the models are indicating a ptype of snow, but the column below 850 is marginal or +1C near the surface and it’s just slobbering paste or catpaws mixed with rain. Eventually we all flip to liquid and the new pack becomes a slush puppy…especially down our way. That’s where I lean right now. There’s not much of a mechanism to hold the cold in. There’s a little in-situ CAD, but strong E flow can quickly erode that away. The large pressure falls are to our west so we’re not getting that northerly isallobaric component. It’s just a massive push of WAA in a short amount of time…except it’s backing in more from the east instead of the usual SW WAA we get in a SWFE.