dendrite

The important thing is to not overthink it. It they have good shelter they'll be okay. I let mine out all of those days and they were fine. I wouldn't want them out there in the 20s with wind and puddles, but that's not usually a problem until late winter or if there's a strong cold front. I've let them free range in the evening in light snow, 10s with little wind, ice packs, etc. Some won't touch the snow, others walk through it. Some come out when it's 15F and others say "no way" and stay in the run. I'd be careful about washing them in the winter. If they have protection from the rain/drizzle they'll go back under when they've had enough precip. Their outer feathers keep them dry really well. But if you get those down underside feathers wet that's when you can be dealing with hypothermia. So wet/dirty feet I don't worry about. They sit on their feet on the roosts anyway which will keep their feet warm and able to dry. Any poopy butts I leave alone in the winter...in the warm season sometimes I'll wet them and try to pull it off. I worried about a lot of things my first winter as well. Someday you'll look back and laugh at some of the things you worried about. Now that doesn't mean I'm cheering the cold on...lol. They're a lot easier to care for in a tame winter. They survive fine in deep winter, but obviously they're not thriving. Good luck and feel free to ask me anything anytime.

It's a long time for here. I usually get at least 1 single digit high every winter, but I've had none going back to Jan 19. I had 7 of them in those couple of weeks in late Dec 17 into early 18.

They’ll be fine as long as they’re dry and there’s no wind/drafts. Make sure they have ventilation. Mine handled a week of highs in the single digits and lows in the -10s with no problem in that cold stretch around New Years 2018. Even if it gets a little below zero in the morning I let them out into the run. They’re birds…they can adapt to relatively slow changes in temp. You have orpingtons and mine handle it better than most of my other birds. Like I said though…the big thing is ventilation as it can lead to respiratory problems over time. The front of my coop is 8ft and I leave the eaves wide open so their heat and moisture can escape up and out. I don’t do the deep litter method in the coop…they’re in the run all day and I just pick up the poop in there daily. They roost in the coop over a poop board which catches their poop like a litter box. So you definitely want to have a place for the moisture to escape aloft if you’re doing DLM. Like you said, the decomposition will provide some heat and convection for the warmth to rise. I do have a barred rock hen with a large comb that has occasionally gotten frostbite on it, but she’s the exception. All of my orpingtons tend to have smaller single combs. Also keep in mind that people keep chickens in the upper midwest and Alaska where it gets -30° to -40° or lower. Keep’em dry and with no air movement and they’ll be fine.

Euro still going wild with the cold early next week, but I bet it moderates a bit by then. The euro has a tendency to go bonkers on cold shots in the extended.

jspin is going to pull 15" off of 0.05" in the upslope.

Just gotta curl that vortmax in more like previous runs. It looks like it wants to and then it just keeps pushing east. This isn't our first rodeo...we know how it goes inside of 72hr. That's why I can't post very seriously in that 3+ day range. If it trends in our favor...great. If not, oh well. There will be others.

Some will win, some will lose. Some will get Bermuda blues.

I don't remember that storm. How did it end up?

Hands too dry to type?

Average is a bit harsh although it’s been less impressive lately. I think people just want to hate it. I can remember so many systems in the last 5+ years where the GFS was late to the cyclogenesis party even inside of 24hrs. I mean it was still trying to snow through a bone dry column in SNE yesterday right up until go-time so it still has plenty of physical flaws.

I love how suddenly the GFS is treated as the best model now. Ha ha…good luck with that long term.

Still in a “warm” pocket. Much colder up in the great north woods.

GFS started closing off the midlevels just in time for ENE…got a little easterly inflow at H7 for a last hurrah over E MA/ME.

Getting a little low level CAA here, but there’s a bit of an inversion aloft. MWN is 0° and 4kft on the autoroad is +6°. So there’s not much of a temp difference as you go from the base to the summit.

Nipply out there...-0.8F at the Jefferson RWIS. Are you below zero yet?

Read line 4 for me please.

Not much in the way of confluence to the NE either.

Yeah that was an awesome 10 minute show before it got dark.

I just canceled winter.

Radar tells the story. Nice snowstorm aloft over LI from BOX, yet nada closer in from OKX.

Heh...I mean there's a difference between melting posts people like to make to vent and truly believing winter is done. I feel like 99% of us fall in the former category...even DIT.

Winter is long and grueling. I sincerely hope no one in SNE cancels winter in the 1st week of January no matter how lousy it has been.

GFS had the right idea sooner.