dendrite

mammoth high pressure

Never forget

That’s lower than what it spit out for us a few years ago. lol

Just feel like all guidance has been overdoing the heat past d5. I think it’s a signal for heat, but it’s usually a safe bet to slice and dice the numbers. I wouldn’t mind a July 1911 stretch although my chickens would struggle.

Heat fail in those last 2 gfs runs. A couple of hot days in there, but nothing like 12z.

Remember all of those 110s modeled in the Omaha area? They finally hit 100F the other day. +1.1F on the month. The models have been way overdoing the heat in the extended. STATION: OMAHA NE MONTH: JULY YEAR: 2022 LATITUDE: 41 17 N LONGITUDE: 95 54 W TEMPERATURE IN F: :PCPN: SNOW: WIND :SUNSHINE: SKY :PK WND ================================================================================ 1 2 3 4 5 6A 6B 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 12Z AVG MX 2MIN DY MAX MIN AVG DEP HDD CDD WTR SNW DPTH SPD SPD DIR MIN PSBL S-S WX SPD DR ================================================================================ 1 80 64 72 -5 0 7 0.29 0.0 0 6.9 21 350 M M 7 13 26 350 2 84 59 72 -5 0 7 T 0.0 0 6.9 20 170 M M 5 1 23 150 3 89 66 78 1 0 13 0.00 0.0 0 10.7 18 150 M M 6 24 160 4 97 72 85 7 0 20 0.91 0.0 0 12.7 25 200 M M 6 13 33 170 5 98 71 85 7 0 20 0.59 0.0 0 12.2 37 10 M M 6 13 51 350 6 79 71 75 -3 0 10 0.03 0.0 0 5.1 13 10 M M 9 3 17 40 7 86 72 79 1 0 14 0.35 0.0 0 7.5 16 160 M M 9 13 27 180 8 86 70 78 0 0 13 0.04 0.0 0 9.1 22 40 M M 7 18 27 40 9 86 66 76 -2 0 11 0.00 0.0 0 7.0 14 110 M M 3 19 120 10 92 72 82 4 0 17 0.00 0.0 0 14.7 26 180 M M 3 35 170 11 86 68 77 -1 0 12 T 0.0 0 8.1 37 310 M M 5 3 48 300 12 86 62 74 -4 0 9 0.00 0.0 0 5.4 14 320 M M 1 23 320 13 92 66 79 1 0 14 0.00 0.0 0 8.2 17 170 M M 2 23 180 14 93 72 83 5 0 18 0.00 0.0 0 14.9 25 180 M M 4 32 170 15 94 76 85 7 0 20 0.00 0.0 0 12.0 22 180 M M 5 34 190 16 85 73 79 1 0 14 0.01 0.0 0 6.1 14 100 M M 10 18 110 17 88 70 79 1 0 14 0.00 0.0 0 4.7 12 30 M M 6 1 17 30 18 92 69 81 3 0 16 0.00 0.0 0 9.1 17 160 M M 0 23 160 19 95 72 84 6 0 19 0.00 0.0 0 11.7 23 210 M M 3 32 200 20 92 67 80 2 0 15 0.00 0.0 0 9.3 21 320 M M 0 26 330 21 92 65 79 1 0 14 0.38 0.0 0 9.3 28 200 M M 2 3 42 200 22 98 69 84 6 0 19 0.03 0.0 0 10.7 29 200 M M 5 3 38 200 23 100 74 87 9 0 22 T 0.0 0 13.5 30 290 M M 5 3 40 300 24 88 66 77 -1 0 12 0.00 0.0 0 9.6 20 330 M M 6 26 340 25 77 64 71 -7 0 6 T 0.0 0 7.3 14 150 M M 9 17 140 ================================================================================ SM 2235 1716 0 356 2.63 0.0 232.7 M 124 ================================================================================ AV 89.4 68.6 9.3 FASTST M M 5 MAX(MPH) MISC ----> # 37 10 51 350 ================================================================================ NOTES: # LAST OF SEVERAL OCCURRENCES COLUMN 17 PEAK WIND IN M.P.H. PRELIMINARY LOCAL CLIMATOLOGICAL DATA (WS FORM: F-6) , PAGE 2 STATION: OMAHA NE MONTH: JULY YEAR: 2022 LATITUDE: 41 17 N LONGITUDE: 95 54 W [TEMPERATURE DATA] [PRECIPITATION DATA] SYMBOLS USED IN COLUMN 16 AVERAGE MONTHLY: 79.0 TOTAL FOR MONTH: 2.63 1 = FOG OR MIST DPTR FM NORMAL: 1.1 DPTR FM NORMAL: -0.23 2 = FOG REDUCING VISIBILITY HIGHEST: 100 ON 23 GRTST 24HR 0.91 ON 4- 4 TO 1/4 MILE OR LESS LOWEST: 59 ON 2 3 = THUNDER SNOW, ICE PELLETS, HAIL 4 = ICE PELLETS TOTAL MONTH: 0.0 INCH 5 = HAIL GRTST 24HR 0.0 6 = FREEZING RAIN OR DRIZZLE GRTST DEPTH: 0 7 = DUSTSTORM OR SANDSTORM: VSBY 1/2 MILE OR LESS 8 = SMOKE OR HAZE [NO. OF DAYS WITH] [WEATHER - DAYS WITH] 9 = BLOWING SNOW X = TORNADO MAX 32 OR BELOW: 0 0.01 INCH OR MORE: 9 MAX 90 OR ABOVE: 12 0.10 INCH OR MORE: 5 MIN 32 OR BELOW: 0 0.50 INCH OR MORE: 2 MIN 0 OR BELOW: 0 1.00 INCH OR MORE: 0 [HDD (BASE 65) ] TOTAL THIS MO. 0 CLEAR (SCALE 0-3) 7 DPTR FM NORMAL 0 PTCLDY (SCALE 4-7) 14 TOTAL FM JUL 1 0 CLOUDY (SCALE 8-10) 4 DPTR FM NORMAL 0 [CDD (BASE 65) ] TOTAL THIS MO. 356 DPTR FM NORMAL 35 [PRESSURE DATA] TOTAL FM JAN 1 838 HIGHEST SLP M ON M DPTR FM NORMAL 133 LOWEST SLP 29.67 ON 19

But yeah, the point stands...likely a hot stretch returning. Even though those maps are way overdone.

Yeah I'll toss that all day.

Down to 55° Don’t need AC during the day either when it’s 50s at night. I’ll deal with the extremes like my ancestors had to.

GFS/EC have the dews out of here quickly. More 85/51 for the weekend.

65/62…cooling quickly. Time to turn the ac off.

Looks like a gator could come out of that water hazard.

Guess where most of the action was this afternoon.

A few nice downpours today. 0.59” on the day.

That's probably an extreme example, but I believe some progs had it modeled. Here's the 00z 3k NAM from the night before. Low 70s dews in SNE during the morning and then mixing out into the 60s and pockets of <= 60F in E MA from BYV to BOS where the hottest temps were achieved. We often get that early to mid morning dewpoint bump as the dew evaporates off into the low levels and then come afternoon the deeper mixing allows the drier air back down to the surface. In the evening the surface cools and reaches saturation rapidly so you get the dew formation (countryside) before 2m fully drops to the overnight mins. (I know you know this...just throwing it out to the non-mets) Here's the number of days per year at CON with 70F+ dewpoints at each hour. There's a clear late morning bump, mid afternoon "min", and then the late evening spike around sunset. Then it continues to radiate, reach saturation, and the T/Td make that slow drop together until sunrise. Obviously places like BOS or ORH don't radiate well so they tend to stay mixed 24hrs.

BOS dews by air temp for met summer. The U50s/L60s dews are at the bottom percentile range for 95-100 temps. Looks like 68ish is around average.

Beer? It's July. There's abundant evapotranspiration. We're not pulling 95/45. 95/60 is hot, but nbd compared to some other heat events we've had the last decade where we're 97/75 in the afternoon. Sat and Sun mornings I radiated down into the low to mid 60s. Then you get a little dew bump mid morning as all of that dew evaporates and then the dry air mixes back down once again. DAW was 97(*)/60 at noon yesterday. BOS was 100/57. That's how we always used to run big heat here until the last decade when mid 90s over mid 70s became more common.

Yeah...that's what I meant by the SE. I know it's still been hot with that run of 100s at EWR, but the dews haven't been that bad and the heat hasn't been super exotic...yet. EWR doesn't have a lot of trouble hitting 100F anymore although almost a week straight of it is still impressive.

Nice +TSRA right now.

Whopping 0.01" overnight, but at least it cooled it down before midnight.

It's been liking it for awhile and they haven't come to fruition yet. I expect some good heat up there in the LR, but I'm tossing all of those absurd numbers right now. They didn't happen in the SE, they didn't happen in the midwest, and they're probably not happening in Minny...not to that extent anyway. We'll see.

Not at the current site. They did at the old site downtown on 7/4/1911 (102F).

On maxes BOS put up a +18 today, ORH +11, and BDL +10. There was definitely some extra heat squeezed out toward the coast in E MA.

BOS 100R MHT 98R PVD 98R CON 96 BDL 96TR ORH 91

Like I said…I haven’t been following it enough to know if it’s been trending more away from other nearby sites. But when this is your topography around the ASOS anything goes.