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dendrite

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Everything posted by dendrite

  1. dendrite
    It’s been doing it every run around the time it starts flipping to snow in SNE.
  2. dendrite
    Idk…I mean it’s doing some weird things with the pressure fields. Like runaway divergence aloft. Look what it does to the slp in ME and the Gulf of ME.
  3. dendrite
    We take
  4. dendrite
    Looks like the 3k nam is having those issues along the nose of that upper level jet…specifically the poleward exit region.
  5. dendrite
    Looks like chicken feed.
  6. dendrite
    0.8"?
  7. dendrite
    Am I the only one that likes the shift? I mean it's strategy. If you can't hit the ball the other way then tough crap for you.
  8. dendrite
    Looks like I get my regional min. We get downsloped after the low level fropa.
  9. dendrite
    oh shit...lol. I read Scoot's post about the HRRR first. Skim reading ftl.
  10. dendrite
    lol no
  11. dendrite
    Definitely moot. Do salt nuclei sufficiently mix into the midlevels? Just trying to imagine this hypothetical scenario with NW flow below 825 and the southerly flow above that. The low level nuclei in that 850 cold zone would be advecting the salt out of the low levels, but you could obviously still be advecting some in from the midlevel warm conveyor. But yeah, I usually see those ZR situations in a column below freezing out in the Plains and it's usually more drastic than this.
  12. dendrite
    It's also the NAM...not the HRRR
  13. dendrite
    I mean it's not cold enough for nucleation unless you count a thin cold layer around 850. Obviously that can happen, but I wouldn't trust the model to be correct with it in this situation.
  14. dendrite
    Piv and COD have those darker reflectivities in NE CT at that time as sleet.
  15. dendrite
    The 10:1 maps will have the issue I mentioned last night. The 3k will handle the algorithms better with the 1hr intervals. The problem is the 3k is still trying to divide by zero as the system leaves...not sure what's causing this and if it affects the precip while it's falling over our region, but it makes me pause.
  16. dendrite
    Euro still engaging in sping next week.
  17. dendrite
    lol...it's mid March. We can get accumulating snow into May.
  18. dendrite
    I’ll be cheering on rain and
  19. dendrite
    NAM is fairly snowy up here…much to my chagrin
  20. dendrite
    Yeah...they should incorporate them into the algorithms even if they don't produce all of the maps at 1hr intervals. The depth is computed by the model so the positive depth change will be more smooth than the vendor clowns. You'll see here the precip is just starting to mix in central MA under those purple reflectivities. Pivotal is throwing 3-4" of snow there along the CT river. The positive depth change only indicates about 0.5". edit…the first two maps in central Maine are an even better example.
  21. dendrite
    COD does this too. So if you're transitioning from RA to SN it'll overdo it on the snow on the NW edge of the time steps. If the model is tagging the ptype at 18hr to be snow, Pivotal is calling the QPF in that previous 3hr or 6hr interval to be snow when the truth is somewhere in that period it flipper from RA to SN.
  22. dendrite
    That's a pivotal issue with ptype and how they label the previous 3hr QPF as either rain or snow. That's why it's jagged contours right up through here and into Maine.
  23. dendrite
    Agree.
  24. dendrite
    Deep spring next week.
  25. dendrite
    There's like no LLJ
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