Pretty good model consistency for a big heat day this Thursday. I keep waiting for the 850s to lessen, and they have, but that plume is still exceptionally warm. GFS and EC are around 22-23C near peak heating.
We used to use that “add 17C” rule for hot summer days with 12z 850s and they’re running around 21C at that time. So that puts the hot spots around 38C at the sfc…ie 100F.
So we’ll see if the potency of that plume survives out of the northern plains. If it is overdone there it’ll be overdone here.