dendrite

I think the groundhog has it all wrong. If I woke up to a beautiful, sunny morning I'd be more inclined to cancel winter.

HRRR is -10F here late afternoon tomorrow. Laced brownies.

I have to keep my chickens in their coop for 2 straight days...haven't done that for even 1 day since somewhere in that Dec 17/Jan 18 stretch. So I'm not a fan of this either.

It may be iced in by Sunday

Scooter sitting in his angry chair looking at wind chill clown maps.

As usual, 1/3 goofus + 2/3 euro and call it a day

GFS MOS is spitting out a new NH state record low temp lol KMWN GFS MOS GUIDANCE 2/02/2023 0600 UTC DT /FEB 2 /FEB 3 /FEB 4 / HR 12 15 18 21 00 03 06 09 12 15 18 21 00 03 06 09 12 15 18 00 06 X/N 6 -33 -30 -49 -12 TMP 0 1 2 4 5 6 -1-13-24-33-36-39-42-44-46-43-37-31-25-16 -8 DPT -3 -1 1 2 3 4 -1-13-24-33-36-39-42-44-46-43-44-40-36-22-13 CLD OV BK OV OV OV OV OV OV BK BK OV OV OV OV OV SC FW FW FW OV OV WDR 28 27 25 25 25 26 28 29 30 30 29 29 30 30 30 31 31 31 31 29 26 WSP 38 34 32 40 52 60 64 63 67 64 64 62 65 70 73 80 85 87 72 44 41 P06 2 0 36 16 0 0 3 0 0 0 6 P12 6 36 3 3 0 Q06 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Q12 0 0 0 0 0 T06 0/ 6 0/ 0 0/12 0/23 0/11 0/ 8 0/13 0/15 0/25 0/ 0 T12 2/17 0/23 1/13 1/25 2/ 7 POZ 1 1 0 1 1 2 2 4 3 2 0 1 2 2 3 3 3 2 1 2 3 POS 96 99100 99 99 98 98 96 97 98100 99 98 99 97 97 97 98 99 98 97 TYP S S S S S S S S S S S S S S S S S S S S S SNW 1 0 CIG 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 1 1 VIS 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 OBV FG FG FG FG FG FG FG FG FG BL BL BL BL BL BL BL BL BL BL BL FG

The gfs is almost as cold as the euro now. A couple degrees here and there.

Some of those random 1 ob dates look fraudulent. The only one I’d trust there is the -30° from 1955. I assume this is BOS?

MOS pumping out a -46F for MWN. KMWN GFS MOS GUIDANCE 2/01/2023 1800 UTC DT /FEB 2 /FEB 3 /FEB 4 HR 00 03 06 09 12 15 18 21 00 03 06 09 12 15 18 21 00 03 06 12 18 N/X -9 8 -31 -29 -46 TMP -7 -7 -7 -5 -2 3 7 5 2 3 -2-12-23-31-35-38-41-42-42-33-21 DPT -7 -7 -8 -7 -5 -1 3 4 2 3 -2-12-23-31-36-38-41-42-42-34-29 CLD OV OV OV OV OV OV OV OV OV OV OV OV BK BK BK OV OV OV OV FW BK WDR 28 28 29 28 28 27 25 24 26 27 29 29 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 31 30 WSP 40 36 43 39 36 33 34 39 53 60 62 60 66 68 62 63 68 69 73 81 63 P06 0 0 2 4 32 18 0 0 0 0 0 P12 2 7 32 5 0 Q06 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Q12 0 0 0 0 0 T06 0/ 4 0/ 5 0/ 2 0/ 0 0/14 1/10 0/10 0/ 0 1/13 0/ 7 T12 0/12 2/14 1/17 1/13 0/19 POZ 2 1 1 3 2 2 2 1 2 2 2 3 3 3 0 0 2 2 3 4 2 POS 95 99 99 97 98 98 99 99 98 98 98 97 97 98100100 98 98 98 97 98 TYP S S S S S S S S S S S S S S S S S S S S S SNW 1 0 CIG 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 VIS 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 OBV FG FG FG FG FG FG FG FG FG FG FG BL BL BL BL BL BL BL BL BL BL

Light winds and rad cooling...sure. 2m temps don't give a crap about pack when it's -30C at 925 and 35mph winds.

Pack this?

2/14/16 depths

It won't be radiational cooling.

Not sure how much the pack matters at night in either case with the strong winds. I think 2016 was just simply colder in the low/mid levels down there than this?

You'll be colder than that

I think the core of that cold went south of here. BML -18 and LEB -14 while in MA PSF was -19 and MQE -14.

It's more in reference to the lack of snow than the temps although there were a couple torch winter months in there. Dec 89 was like the coldest December on record.

GFS has 9F at MHT 00z Sun and then warms it to 25F by 12z Sun morning.

The sad thing is that these departures are coming with the relatively "new" normals. It would've been worse with the Jan 81-2010 dataset.

It used to be in CON before the last couple decades. We don’t get many good rad cooling nights anymore.

Heavy, heavy wood stove smoke…especially Sunday morning. I’m not trying to poopoo this…it’s going to be damn cold either way. I just figured if it’s going to be -10s here anyway we may as well go for -20 or colder. We hit -12 to -17 many winters for a peak min.

They’ll be fine. They’re enclosed.

Trending warmer. And even that there is losing its “exoticness”. More mehpic than epic.