Some of that is anecdotal and/or outdated. But if you find a tendency that works for you then that’s great. I’m just always hesitant of prolonged biases with how frequently they tinker with these models now.
My girl Alicia B is handling the global modeling verification for NCEP now. It’s been awhile since I talked to her, but I could pick her brain on this. Maybe she has some unreleased precip data too.
I don’t have the precip data though and obviously accuracy surrounding cyclones doesn’t necessarily correlate with accuracy around the NHEM in fair conditions.
There’s a cold front there along that trough. Goofus has the highest lapse rates up in C/NNE. But yeah that DPVA may tell you where you see stronger sfc pressure falls and more sfc backing or even a hint of a mesolow.