GFS sits the icelandic low over the region to end the run. That’s a cold final week of Sep and it looks like that cold shot next week could threaten a freeze down here.
Yeah. 47F down there would've needed rad cooling after a little CAA. I think MOS had 48F at ORE, but that seemed fairly aggressive after the fropa with CAA just kicking in.
I had one starting. It would heal a bit and then I'd reaggravate it. I did that about 20x. Eventually I went long enough without overdoing it because it hasn't bothered me in 5+ years.