dendrite

Sure. Maybe. I mean the axis for the block on the 12th is more toward Iceland, but there's a ridge extension down into the US with the s/w in question kinda undercutting it. Then you have a potent little 60/60 ULL that cuts through the block and slowly meanders just to our NE. So there's still some subtle features to iron out. A little less ridging to the north or a stronger s/w and it wouldn't be too difficult for CNE to steal. Odds are obviously against it though. I'm only expecting flurries at best with all of that dry air in the mid levels trying to advect in from the NE.

Still plenty of time to steal it.

47° and 0.91”

Kidding aside…we tend to have 3 different things going on at once. We have people here looking for sensible weather, those that are looking for specific events to track in the short/med range, and then those that are trying to sniff out the LR pattern. It’s like comparing climatology and meteorology…they’re intertwined, but still different. I mingle with the LR stuff sometimes, but it’s not my passion. I prefer tracking imminent events and then the observing/nowcasting aspect. I respect those that are into the d10-15+ analyses and I know enough that it’s a different beast. Favorable patterns don’t always produce winners and sometimes a weaker pattern pulls off a title. The 2007 and 2001 Pats are good examples. So we laugh, we cry, and we troll, but I think most of us here understand the difficulties and challenges with the differing forecasting periods.

I wish I lived at H5 and d10.

5 or 6?

BDL had 12.4” through 3/15.

Close. Feb 2

It's trying. yeah, no...that northern piece never dropped in

Mr Ginxy the Christmas poo?

Like I said to pickles yesterday, I'm always wary about modeled NAO region blocks in the LR. But it doesn't really matter much for my area. It can snow a variety of ways...just get some systems. I'm fine with the PAC driving the bus.

I didn't get above 10F for like a week I think.

348hr eps control 2m temp anomaly image I remember when I used to care what he had to say.

The GFS. Pumping out shit since 2002

Pretty sure that’s a 900 number.

I've honestly been out of the loop with the LR for awhile...been busy with some other things. I just check in to get an idea of what's going on from the big dawgs in here. I've been peeking more myself the past few days though and it does look good, but I don't have much to add beyond what others have said. I don't usually invest too much emotionally in LR progs since they can change quite a bit come verification time. These epic d15 -NAO blocks have been fool's gold it seems during winter so I usually keep my guard up with anything in the N ATL. Basically I don't stress too much about the extended beyond d5-7. I like to roll with whatever comes and just fan the stressful flames from weenies time to time. Get the favorable pattern into that 120-144 window and I'll start paying more attention to the chances.

Reinstall?

18 useless degrees

It’s all fantasy, but too much Atlantic perineum.

Winding in another rainer at d12.

Good place to start. We can always go higher.

Over a week above freezing in December would be pretty sweet.

I think I've seen NCEP use 0.6 as the "useful" cutoff.