dendrite

That’s not usually good growth in these setups. It’s usually grains.

How are you snow?

19.9° +SN 4.2”

So close at BOS

@CoastalWx KPSM 161155Z 02008KT 5/8SM R34/4500VP6000FT -SN BR SCT003 OVC011 M04/M05 A2991 RMK AO2A SLP133 P0002 60022 70037 4/012 T10361050 11035 21048 57041

Getting here now

Yeah but that was a 1hr forecast too. I expected the mid level warmth and the low level cold to overperform so we’ll see how it shakes out today. Probably a lot of sleet.

Sleet is pushing CON now. 11z HRRR 1hr forecast only had it near the MA border at 12z. Hopefully we can wash out the mix on cc soon.

Yeah we need to make hay between now and 14-15z after a fairly lackluster overnight.

You’re kinda like the Sean McDonough of obs posting. Every ob is posted with excitement even if it’s just a regular play.

Current pinger line.

BDL is back over to sleet. Kinda funny seeing them colder than DIT.

Some of the hires models had temps dropping down along the S Coast at this time before warming after 12z. So I’m not sure this is a big deal yet. We’ll see.

Beer. That was yesterday afternoon.

Mix line should be somewhere near this right now

19.4° -SN 2.2”/0.19” so far

Looks like you should be pinging now?

Sleet line is pretty much hugging the CT/MA border.

20.9° -SN Decent growth for now

I agree. I always look for the time of the switch and just do 10:1 before it and 3:1 during the sleet period.

So I think I found the HRRR issue. It will layer multiple precip types at the same gridpoint if applicable. So there’s a period where it’s trying to paint snow and sleet in the interior of MA and NH during the morning so the vendors are calling that 10:1 even though it’s probably closer to 3:1 sleet ratios in reality. That weird cutoff in Maine is an area where the model is showing a snow+sleet/plain sleet cutoff in the afternoon so NW of that line the vendors are painting at 10:1 and SE of it they stop the accumulations. Here’s the ptype for 18z and 00z tomorrow.

The numbers are overdone in the interior. I’ve seen this on multiple vendor sites with the HRRR. The sleet won’t be 10:1.

Lots of moonshine in that 12.3”

To keep this in perspective… In 2008 BOS had 3.36” of liquid after ORH turned to FZRA ORH had 1.34” of FZRA water equiv until the ASOS crapped the bed at 6z/12th while it was mod/hvy FZRA. Most of these amounts are in the trivial to minor damage range.