dendrite

Alright time to keep it to weather and drop the conspiracy insinuations.

GFS finally caved for later this week.

sounds like you're describing commotio cordis

Eh. Some threats before then. We don't need a perfect pattern up here. Just get it down to only a little above normal and not +10C at 850.

Glazed donuts up here.

I don’t think most here are whining or even upset. I think we’re all just bored. We like to talk and there isn’t a lot to talk about so it’s mostly goofing off.

Most of the GEFS are meh

All kidding and trolling aside, there's nothing big on the near horizon so hope for scraps this week and then we'll see how it goes next week. There doesn't seem to be much potent cold in the long range for most of the CONUS, but ens have been cold enough for snow in our region. So hope for the best. Maybe toward mid month we can get into something a little more favorable.

We all struggle with you

press 5 to hear Ray's winter forecast press 6 to hear Ray melt about the pattern and stress over his forecast press 7 to hear Ray reassure himself that this is all going according to plan

Man it really is an April pattern

Today will be my warmest of the week.

He’s stressed about his ski trip, yet there’s going to be multiple chances for the ski areas coming up.

Well the divergent regions of jetstreaks are in the left front and right rear quadrants. That was the common terminology when I was growing up although in college I had a professor that chose to use equatorward entrance and poleward exit region…and that may be easier for someone to imagine and recall while looking at upper level maps. But my point was there’s a lot of spread with that many members that far out. These regions of extra upper level divergence/convergence within jetstreaks are at a relatively small scale compared to the global and synoptic flow so it’s kind of a moot point. It’s like seeing isobars hanging back on an SLP mean at d15 and reading it as inverted trough potential whereas it’s just spread amongst the differing members. Also, the base of the trough axes tend to have relatively lower wind speeds so you wouldn’t expect to see a jetstreak like that in that position of the trough anyway. Usually in coastals we have the trough axis to our west and we’re looking for that jetstreak on the east side of the trough and the left front quad somewhere around or inside the benchmark. The classic dual jet setups have another jet to our E/NE and the right rear quadrant paired with the left front one along the coast.

Euro with the wedge up here Tue and Wed. Throw in some tuck action ZR for Thu. My warm week went kaput.

Another trend in that direction and it’s a meh event. 12z was quite a few inches here.

324hr 51 member ens mean so I wouldn’t worry too much about divergent jet regions with that image.

GFS blows up the 2nd wave with more cold in place while the EC has that pretty far OTS. Euro is a little more wintry for NNE/CNE Wed/Thu with R to S/IP/ZR.

I think you're confusing 2 systems.

The extended looks like shiat. Nice chinook straight to Hudson Bay.

In Soviet Russia storms track you.

Fri into Sat, yeah.

A little tucky action on Thursday for eastern sections.

EC interesting for NNE Wed night into Thu.

We ski