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dendrite

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Everything posted by dendrite

  1. dendrite
    You’re stating the obvious. Events happen, I get it…you can’t cherry pick and subtract them out. I’m just playing the parallel universe hypothetical game. My point is that it’s tough to pull something that big and widespread in the middle of -10s anomalies. It can happen (miller B etc) but usually that spells clippers or cold and dry.
  2. dendrite
    We’re going to have a big CC discussion on Friday the 13th when Wolfie leaves for Frenchy ville.
  3. dendrite
    I said it the other day, but you could look at it like we were a little lucky with that roided SWFE too. It’s tough to pull something like that off in the midst of 2-3 weeks of -10 anomalies without any relaxation at the sfc. That was a Jose Canseco needled up wedge of surface cold with big overrunning over it. But if that had missed south people would be losing their minds right now. A 20” event and deep pack for weeks definitely changes the mindset.
  4. dendrite
    35°? ASH runs a couple warm too.
  5. dendrite
    There’s no snow reports in PA right now…all RH is below 70%.
  6. dendrite
    3k is pretty horrible south of here. Maybe an inch at MHT.
  7. dendrite
    3k definitely looking convective along the cold front in SNE. Maybe in and out in 1-2hrs?
  8. dendrite
    I think it’s juicing up for SE MA late as the front picks up a little more moisture off the Atlantic before pushing through. So maybe more of a SE MA enhancement than an interior MA dry sliver? Not saying it’s correct…just guessing what it’s doing.
  9. dendrite
    Anyone ever dabble in the ASOS temp betting?
  10. dendrite
    Good luck expecting every event to bust positive. Like Scoot said…hope to get a little from the initial arm of WAA and then go to town briefly with the line dropping SE to finish.
  11. dendrite
    Yeah idk…no need to overthink it. A model being on its own this close in usually doesn’t cause you to exude confidence in it. I was just using his own words against him. It’s pretty easy to find him contradicting himself.
  12. dendrite
  13. dendrite
    There’s a sideswiping H7 dryslot behind it too…may be helping with the forcing
  14. dendrite
    Could be some ptype issues in the bottom half of CT too. Kinda on the edge, but if it gets convective as the front approaches it could be one of those graupel/snow pellet to snow before ending deals.
  15. dendrite
    For you? Nah. 1-2”…maybe a lucky 3”
  16. dendrite
  17. dendrite
    GFS = Glue Factory System? But kidding aside I think we all know that’s a pipedream in Feb…although you can’t rule out a semi warm day in there.
  18. dendrite
    Looks like a few good hits, but I wouldn’t call that “lots”
  19. dendrite
    CMC models are on an island
  20. dendrite
    6z gfs takes it to cuba and then the yucatan. lol I can’t recall a model doing anything like that with an ULL before
  21. dendrite
    HRRR modeled snowfall
  22. dendrite
    I still think this is a little precarious of a setup south of the Pike, but we’ll see how it goes. The leading edge WAA precip is a little too far north and then you’re relying on the mid level cold front delivering…there’s a little low level dry air to start too. It may end up like a wild 1-2 hour line of snow with mixed graupel initially.
  23. dendrite
    HRRR is almost a half inch of liquid here.
  24. dendrite
    I had birch seeds blow onto my fresh snow…need to cover that up.
  25. dendrite
    Anyway I’m just busting you in the dead zone. Let’s juice this system up more at 00z
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