dendrite

Nammy is coming in hot in the MidAtl

@weatherwiz do any of these work for you? I forgot this guy’s page even existed https://www.wxcaster.com/isentropic.htm

It’s a big push of isentropic lift…more of a consistent upglide over the cold dome. Sadly you can’t seem to find isentropic model maps anymore online. This would be a pretty cold isentropic surface to work with.

That’s through 7am monday

You’re ripping like 0.60”+/6hr at times. Even with clearing there’s going to be compaction on the bottom of those cores as the weight increases on the lower crystals. A little wind will break the crystals down a bit too. So I just find it hard to see 12-15” of fluff in 6hrs during the meat of it. If you were clearing hourly then yeah…you’re probably getting 20-25:1 hourlies at times.

There’s our perfect cane track

Btw….to anyone using the Beta site on Pivotal be careful when clicking soundings. When I’m in landscape mode the lat/long is correct, but when I flip the view to portrait it’s shifting my longitude off by a solid 1°.

I think that’s a good safe number. Soundings are pretty good here, but it’s tough to sustain huge ratios (20-25:1) with higher QPF. There’s a period on the euro where we’re saturated and in the DGZ from the sfc to H5.

Toss those kuch maps…especially in NNE

That run would shorten the period of deep max DGZ for many too. It’s probably just the NAM doing its own synoptic things rather than nailing the mid level warming.

H7 0C to the S coast

NAM is juiced

It would’ve been funnier if Cory came back and then the RI snowhole reemerged.

Exploding showers when the cold comes in behind it

They were probably getting pushed for a map and finally said “fu here ya go”

Every run is pretty much in that 0.8-1.1 range up here. 10-16” sounds good barring any changes. Hopefully we can really crank the latent heating in the south.

My family will text me later ”is it true we’re getting 3ft of snow over the next couple weeks?”

The weenie social media mets will have fun hyping it

Blizzard loop into PWM

We pray

The 540 critical thickness was more important in forecasting in the 1990s when we were more limited on the model data we received. It’s definitely outdated now. Usually it can snow even with a 552dm thickness in these overrunning SWFE setups.

It’s the thickness of the 1000-500mb layer and it’s dependent upon the average temperature of the layer. The warmer it is…the more it “expands”…the taller is it. The colder….the more dense…the lower it is. But this isn’t a standard avg 1000-500 layer…this airmass will be biased cold in the lower half and warmer than average in the upper half. So the 540 thickness rule of thumb for RA vs SN doesn’t really apply. Forecast soundings are better and easy to find for all models today. If you’re going to bother with thickness it would be better to use partial ones like 700-850 for midlevel warming.

That won’t matter in this with a SW flow setup. The big warming influence on those thicknesses are 700mb and higher and those levels are plenty cold for snow.