dendrite

Already up to 51° with sun. Sneaky little torch day to start Dewcember.

Not wild about the primary holding that strong into upstate NY and already being on the edge here, but it can be done. I feel like there’s more room to go wrong than right from this point for CNE. Nammy is glop here, but snowier into the deeper wedging toward dryslot.

That’s 925…probably a flip to snow for you at some point in the 2nd half

A little surprised there’s not much in the way of a mixed ptype zone in the soundings. It’s pretty much riding the line isothermal here. That subtle BD and CADing out ahead of the primary is the real key for snow here.

Damn you beat me to it.

Kp just shot up to 7 with a strong south Bz…sure enough right after sunrise.

Goofus with a lean toward the euro for Monday.

Yeah I doubt that’s the “big” one.

fyi I’m not saying 18z euro was the “blink”.

Later developing secondary this run.

I think the euro will “blink”. 18z looks like a trend toward meh here.

Give me a heads up if you see anything decent out there.

Around 9z maybe?

We all fall in love with the fancy hires QPF and clowns now at d5-7. The models are really damn impressive. As the decades go by our expectations change and we demand more from them and want specific deets many days out. I think many of us forget what they were like in 2010 or 2000. They've missed plenty of storms in the past. Heck I remember when the euro was gaining its king status back when it only ran once per day, most of us did not get to see QPF, and we basically forecasted using H5-7-85 and 2m/1000mb. We were toggling coarse SLP contours on unisys.

Nothing scientific here, but I think they tinker with these models so much now that it’s difficult to analyze year to year trends.

Times are zulu/GMT...not EST. 12z is 7am EST and 18z is 1pm EST

It’ll be 1038 next run

We finally get our ‘38

I drove home through that. Fun one.

Chilly afternoon. 30° with snow showers

I saw that on CNN.com a week ago. Interesting start year there considering how cold that decade was compared to the rest of the century.

North and Central New Hampshire Including Coos, Grafton, and Carroll Counties Temps 24 hr Cur 24 Hour Snow New Station Cur Max Min Wx Precip Depth Snow ------------------------------------------------------------- Berlin 32 39 18 Cloudy 0.88 0 T Berlin - ASOS 33 41 13 Light Rain 0.59 M M Carter Notch Hut 33 33 21 Clear M 15 4.3 Colebrook M M M M M M M East Sandwich 35 39 21 Cloudy 1.29 2 T Errol NEPP 32 39 9 M 0.50 M M First Conn Lake 33 37 15 M 0.17 M M Gorham 34 39 17 M 0.62 M M Gray Knob 30 30 19 Light Drizzle 0.01 10 10.0 Harvard Cabin M M M M M M M Hermit Lake 31 31 25 Cloudy 1.32 15 8.0 Jefferson 32 37 18 Light Drizzle 0.64 1 1.3 Lincoln NEPP 35 40 18 M 0.88 M M Lonesome Lake Hut 33 36 20 Cloudy 0.82 11 3.5 Mount Washington 28 28 18 Light Snow 1.90 12 8.2 North Conway M M M M M M M Northumberland 31 39 19 Cloudy 0.48 T 0.5 Pinkham Notch 32 36 17 Light Drizzle 0.85 5 0.2 Pittsburg Res 32 39 14 Mdt Snow 0.53 3 2.0 Plymouth - AWOS 35 41 19 Light Rain M M M Tamworth 4 35 41 18 Cloudy 1.10 5 0.0 Waterville Valley 34 41 16 M 1.30 M M Whitefield - ASOS 32 42 14 Fog 0.58 M M Wolfboro 42 48 22 Clear M 0 0.0 Zealand Falls Hut 33 34 20 Cloudy 0.55 7 3.1 Southern New Hampshire Including Sullivan, Merrimack, Belknap, Strafford, Rockingham Hillsborough, and Cheshire Counties Temps 24 hr Cur 24 Hour Snow New Station Cur Max Min Wx Precip Depth Snow ------------------------------------------------------------- Concord - ASOS 38 48 22 Light Rain 0.58 0 0.0 East Milford 38 48 19 Clear 0.08 0 0.0 Ed Macdowell LK M M M M M M M Epping 42 51 21 Clear 0.33 0 0.0 Greenland M M M M M M M Greenville M M M M M M M Hopkinton Lake M M M M M M M Hudson 41 50 22 Clear 0.45 0 0.0 Jaffrey - ASOS 36 47 25 Light Rain 0.44 M M Jaffrey AP M M M M M M M Keene 33 40 19 Cloudy 0.73 0 0.0 Keene - AWOS 33 46 18 Fog 0.66 M M Laconia - AWOS 39 48 26 Light Rain 0.78 M M Lakeport 2 39 48 25 Cloudy 0.42 0 0.0 Manchester - ASOS 42 51 25 Light Rain 0.43 0 0.0 Nashua - AWOS 39 49 22 Light Rain 0.39 M M Nashua CWSU 38 48 30 Clear 0.40 0 0.0 Otter Brook Lake M M M M M M M Portsmouth 46 53 26 M 0.53 M M Rochester - ASOS 45 53 26 Light Rain 0.61 M M Salisbury 33 44 22 M 0.63 M M Surry Mountain M M M M M M M Walpole 34 40 21 M 1.15 M M Weare M M M M M M M West Hampstead 42 50 26 Clear 0.40 0 0.0

Just checked the hydro obs. Hermit Lake had 8.0”. Kinda strange to call that Gorham if that’s what they’re doing.

It was probably 0.8”.

Down to 33.6° with some black ice on surfaces.