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dendrite

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Everything posted by dendrite

  1. dendrite
    There’s a late shitstreak that drops south toward New England that keeps the heights suppressed a little longer than they would be otherwise. That PV lobe is pivoting and dropping southeast at this point and the heights (that string of vorticity over us) really wants to move north more if that other s/w wasn’t there. Maybe in the end it wouldn’t matter, but anything that can relax the gph field I’d think would be a benefit
  2. dendrite
    I noticed a subtle trend with that too. The vortmax may dig for oil just the same, but if we can tick everything a little west we can swing the system closer our way as it gains latitude. I’d like to see some of the late suppression over New England back off a bit late week to help the heights recover over the weekend.
  3. dendrite
    The resolution is probably just too coarse. In a vacuum the upper levels look really good during the weekend…hence the analog storms.
  4. dendrite
    This is low even for you. Go find someone with a headlight out or something.
  5. dendrite
    Bottomed at -2.8°. Warming a little now, but the river valleys here were all around -10. Had another 0.1” snow last night too.
  6. dendrite
    -2.5° on the hillside…not too bad. But yeah, there’s some double digit sub 0s around in the pits.
  7. dendrite
    All of the runs of all of the models are essentially the same thing.
  8. dendrite
    It’s too bad it’s suppression city right into the weekend. A little more relaxation from that PV lobe and it’d probably be a big hit for the region.
  9. dendrite
    lol…that CMC low looked tropical forming in convection over the gulf stream. 100kt at 925
  10. dendrite
    https://www.meteo.psu.edu/ewall/NARR/1987.html Kinda strange it was number 1
  11. dendrite
    Some big ‘uns there
  12. dendrite
    Could there possibly be a better meteorologist name for someone at NWS NYC than Anthony Gigi?
  13. dendrite
    CIPS has that #3 and Boxing Day 2010 #2
  14. dendrite
  15. dendrite
    Looks completely stacked to me at 114hr off HSE. But if we could get the system to crawl more north than east we could wrap some good midlevel WAA in from the SE.
  16. dendrite
    Some of that is going to be real. The sfc low goes nuclear down south and the system tries to stack while attempting to form a secondary on the triple point…but we lose the upper dynamics up here to help the sfc pressure falls. I’m still intrigued to some extent for up here.
  17. dendrite
    Difference was Jan 2000 had that trailing shortwave phase in and pull the whole system back. As of right now none of the modeled shortwaves want to play that game.
  18. dendrite
    Some similarities
  19. dendrite
    Man that vort is digging for oil off of Savannah. Kinda has that look like it would throw back a massive deformation band like Jan 2000
  20. dendrite
    Spit or swallow?
  21. dendrite
    I want ozone over Orleans
  22. dendrite
    There’s regular synoptic scale diffluence and then you get upper jetstreak dynamics where you get smaller scale divergence in the poleward exit and equatorward entrance region of the jetstreak. A lot of our bigger storms have 2 jetstreaks with their regions of divergence coupled together.
  23. dendrite
    From a PV thinking perspective…a big tightly curled PV anomaly digging through the carolinas. The diffluent area on the PV gradient sits right over the baroclinic zone…so yeah, you’d expect sfc pressure falls off the VA/NC coast which the GFS has. And yeah, I know you’re using a GEFS mean.
  24. dendrite
    I kinda like those trailing shortwaves closer this run…give it a bit of a kick north to keep it from spinning and rotting down south.
  25. dendrite
    Yeah it seems to be ampifying a tick west this run which should give us more time to pump the downstream ridging a little more. It’s still digging pretty far south though.
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