dendrite

Cold one this morning. 36.7°

the consistency of which that is being modeled at that time range has sorta fascinated me today. Most of the gefs/eps members have it too. It reminds me of when mar 93 was being modeled 5-7 days out.

That isn’t right. Dec 89 had 6” in BOS.

Post the gfs now

41° and just had a heavy shower roll through. Seasons in seasons.

I looked back at the historical monthlies of CON, BOS, ORH, and BDL and couldn’t find an instance of it happening. There is a nonzero chance of it though considering all of the sites have had Novembers with monthly means that were colder than some of the warmest December means…just not in the same season. Warm bias or not, ORH is threatening it this year, but will likely fall short. They are 38.5° after 29 days and November finished at 38.8°.

Just had some thin spots in the ovc and some blue sky to the east, but it’s back to thick ovc again. The days and days of low 40s continue.

Well we’re not getting much snow, but I wouldn’t call this the 80s either. My ground would maybe be brown, but it would be frozen 2 feet deep.

It hasn’t been below freezing here since Xmas eve and not below 35° since Xmas day. That’s insane for mby. The ground is completely thawed…not even a hint of ice below the surface. The chickens have been eating worms out of the ground every afternoon when I let them out. Normally with a torch or cutter there’s at least a subsurface frozen layer that remains from previous colder nights. But it is legit April mud season right now. It’s surreal when looking at the calendar.

Pretty good ens agreement on that d12 MW/GL cutter. Aside from that, at least 850s will approach seasonal levels so there will be some chances to snow over the interior even if they’re messy events.

What a day to be alive. It’s been 40-41° since 2am

I think 07-08 is my tops. A big December and continuous pack right into mid April.

Maybe it worked this time, but historically H5 is going to outperform 2m temps 2+ weeks out. I’d argue that more get “trapped” on 2m or 850 temps versus analyzing the H5 features too. But yeah, that’s good verification at both levels. That H5 pattern should produce here this time of year as it should be cold enough to snow. But like you said, much of Canada is relatively torched and struggling to snow as well. It feels like we’re stuck in November in NAMER.

I may be the darkest despite 97% totality when you factor in the 100ft ceilings and drizzle.

Guess who took the pic.

The worst event was the 5/18 hard freeze.

We’re not done yet either…couple more big torch days to go. +17 for CON today…+21 on the min.

First 5pm sunset here is Feb 3.

Nah no one here has legitimately canceled winter yet. There’s weenies venting and acting out, but no one here in their right mind has canceled anything yet. I won’t speak on other subforums though since I don’t go in there. There’s some scared weenies in here for sure and some of us (maybe even me) like to troll them and nudge them toward the edge of the Tobin from time to time. But we’ve all been here long enough to know how this works.

Ekster tweeted that from the 19th hole.

The models seem to love to build big faux cold and drop it into CONUS in the deep extended. I take it all with a grain of salt. With little pack and thawed ground over a lot of the north there’s going to be modification of any cold shots that come in until we build Tip’s cryosphere southward. Deep winter always eventually arrives at our latitude to some temporal extent and I’d be surprised if it doesn’t this year too, but I’m hesitant of any epic pattern shown in the LR until we can get it consistently inside d7.

Merry Tickmas Ticks up here on 12/25 in CAD land.