dendrite

Looks pretty warm overall in the extended, but there will be mild downs. We’ll sneak some late fronts in around that ridge centered way to our SW.

Have only needed AC a few days and they were all July. I don't quite understand the problem some have with sheets sticking to the body, but that should get checked.

OFA winter forecast is out. lol https://www.almanac.com/winter-extended-forecast-farmers-almanac

Yup. It seems to struggle with that BL moisture pooling in the corn belt. It’s like it has dust bowl physics built in to the geography and all moisture just evaporates to the moon.

Yeah I'm not buying 115/37 at 45N in Minny on 9/3 with 32C 850s

And it was spitting out 30C+ at H85 there. It's been 3-5C too high with the plume where it's mixing up to H5. I'll stick with the euro numbers that are plenty warm enough.

Tone that down due to the overmixing

Thanks for the heads up

Congrats Cedar Key. They’re due for a biggie.

Yeah I get it...there will be more blue come verification since it's getting washed out in the means, but it's still a sign of the times that heights are biased warmer across the entire NHEM

Only 1 80+ here and no 90s yet. The 80s this year were Apr 2, May 2, Jun 5, Jul 19, Aug 1 19.36" so far for JJA

Look at all of that blue

Fine by me. It'll give my pawpaws more time to harden off.

We get more snow than Hobart. ITH normal is about 63" and Meredith COOP is about 80". Plymouth may be a hair less in the shadow zone. In winters with numerous overrunning events (SWFEs) we can really rack up the 6-10 inchers.

Looks more like a pig ridge centered over the TN/MS valley in much of the extended ens. Expect an occasional cold front with that.

Works OK with long wavelengths. Voodoo this time of year.

Long, cold, and dark. CAD reigns supreme. Don't expect any blockbuster events unless a deformation band somehow makes it up there and rots.

Looks good. Heart of the ridge where it has been with an up and down pattern averaging AN here. Perfect for September.

95-100 vs 110-115 is a big deal. It always looked hot up there. The problem is the overmixing. It’s been trying to paint a desert-like 115/45 out there when reality is dews verify 75-80 with near 100 temps. That’s what it’s doing again in the Great Lakes and OH Valley. So take that 110/45 and make it 98/78. Both are miserable.

It’s trying to get the mixing layer up near 500mb a week into September. It’s going to inflate 850 temps by doing that as well. Just toss it all.

That’s a real hoot trying to rip 110° in the Great Lakes for a week in September.

Partly sunny and mostly cloudy are essentially the same thing…depends if you’re a half full or half empty kinda guy. But there’s been a chance of showers in our region for many days on modeling.

This is insane PRELIMINARY LOCAL CLIMATOLOGICAL DATA (WS FORM: F-6) STATION: SHREVEPORT MONTH: AUGUST YEAR: 2023 LATITUDE: 32 28 N LONGITUDE: 93 49 W TEMPERATURE IN F: :PCPN: SNOW: WIND :SUNSHINE: SKY :PK WND ================================================================================ 1 2 3 4 5 6A 6B 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 12Z AVG MX 2MIN DY MAX MIN AVG DEP HDD CDD WTR SNW DPTH SPD SPD DIR MIN PSBL S-S WX SPD DR ================================================================================ 1 102 76 89 4 0 24 0.00 0.0 0 5.0 13 130 M M 5 20 60 2 106 80 93 8 0 28 0.00 0.0 0 6.3 16 160 M M 1 21 250 3 104 82 93 8 0 28 0.00 0.0 0 6.2 14 260 M M 1 20 180 4 103 81 92 7 0 27 0.00 0.0 0 6.8 14 240 M M 1 19 250 5 104 81 93 8 0 28 0.00 0.0 0 6.1 17 240 M M 1 23 240 6 101 80 91 6 0 26 0.00 0.0 0 4.9 16 320 M M 4 20 310 7 99 81 90 5 0 25 0.00 0.0 0 7.9 16 150 M M 3 28 270 8 92 75 84 -1 0 19 0.00 0.0 0 7.2 26 20 M M 5 36 360 9 104 78 91 6 0 26 0.00 0.0 0 11.4 21 210 M M 4 32 200 10 105 83 94 10 0 29 T 0.0 0 9.8 23 200 M M 4 35 190 11 105 83 94 10 0 29 0.00 0.0 0 10.2 20 240 M M 4 28 230 12 105 81 93 9 0 28 0.00 0.0 0 7.5 18 240 M M 2 26 240 13 106 80 93 9 0 28 0.00 0.0 0 5.9 17 240 M M 0 26 260 14 106 81 94 10 0 29 0.00 0.0 0 8.4 20 360 M M 1 27 10 15 95 72 84 0 0 19 0.00 0.0 0 8.5 16 20 M M 2 25 70 16 94 68 81 -3 0 16 0.00 0.0 0 6.3 14 110 M M 1 17 110 17 105 67 86 2 0 21 0.00 0.0 0 4.4 12 360 M M 0 16 140 18 109 74 92 8 0 27 0.00 0.0 0 4.4 13 270 M M 0 19 260 19 109 81 95 11 0 30 0.00 0.0 0 6.7 14 270 M M 1 18 10 20 107 80 94 10 0 29 0.00 0.0 0 8.6 21 30 M M 1 29 20 21 107 78 93 9 0 28 0.00 0.0 0 6.2 15 50 M M 1 24 110 22 107 81 94 10 0 29 0.00 0.0 0 6.7 16 120 M M 2 23 100 23 106 78 92 8 0 27 0.00 0.0 0 5.7 13 50 M M 2 20 10 24 109 81 95 12 0 30 0.00 0.0 0 5.5 15 20 M M 4 19 20 25 110 79 95 12 0 30 0.00 0.0 0 4.3 15 170 M M 3 8 23 150 ================================================================================ SM 2600 1961 0 660 T 0.0 170.9 M 53 ================================================================================ AV104.0 78.4 6.8 FASTST M M 2 MAX(MPH) MISC ----> 26 20 36 360 ================================================================================

Beautiful day…mid 70s with low 60s dews, partial sun, and a nice breeze. Perfect for this time of year.

63.6F with sheet drizzle Up to 1.17"