Not my first rodeo.
"leaning below"
I know I've ranted on these maps before, but I just always find them funny. I know what they're trying to imply, but they separate the probs into 3 categories (BN, N, AN) and slap a probability on each one and shade with whichever one is the highest. So they shade us in 40-50% probability of BN which translates to 50-60% (higher) chance of not BN.
Has anyone EVER seen them issue those maps with any of the grey shading for an increased probability of "near normal"? I can't recall ever seeing it. Instead we get that boring 33/33/33% of equal chances.
GEFS, EPS, GEPS all start having that +TNH look toward d15…SE ridge, ridge off west coast, lower heights SW US and up toward Hudson Bay. We’d play with fire with that, but I’d roll with my chances in the interior for a higher QPF SWFE.