Pretty much. That’s how 2m verification usually works. Not warm enough with sun and mixing and not cold enough with rad cooling. But the NAM will nail the wedge with precip mid week.
2m temps usually are too cool with a mixed BL. Nothing really new there. But PSM hasn’t updated since the 25° at 15z so idk where you got 30°…unless you mean the NAM temp at 18z.
There were wild differences in elevation last night. Anyone getting a puff of wind stayed mixed. The Peter Sinkses of New England plummeted. 25° on Mt Lafayette right now but a little north at HIE they hit -15°. My hill was 16° at the top on the car thermo and the bottom was single digits. It’s not a good morning to judge thermometer accuracy.
Lots of pretty colors aloft. We’ll see how that looks at the surface come verification time. The GFS looks wet and miserable. Hopefully it’s wrong. GEFS are definitely much warmer.