Yeah it looks like it maxes out around your latitude. Usually I track it on models with the sfc-500 max temp plots, but you can’t track it there with warm 2m temps.
I wonder if the aggregates got so large aloft with the midlevel mixing that they were better able to survive the lower warmth and make it to the ground.
Sun comes out for 5 mins. Temp climbs from 38 to 40. Goes overcast again. Temp drops back to 38. It’s Saturday…I’m not worried about a little diabatic warming. Let’s talk 2m temps tomorrow afternoon when we can actually see what BL wetbulbs advected down to.
Has a higher terrain, rt2-north jack look to it. Basically where the euro has the track of the H7 low and just north of it…then adjust for elevation/coastal temp influence.
Doesn’t seem too far off from guidance so far. We’re getting some CAA aloft today so that may help dry it out and warm it up into the U30s. Pop a break or 2 and we hit some low 40s. It won’t mean much for the snow Sun night into Mon.
HRRR is really marginal down there. Watch out with the ptype intensity maps too because it will simulate very high reflectivities with wet snow/white rain. It’s painting 40dbz snow in spots with 34-36° 2m temps.