dendrite

Back to the here and now… 36° and -SHRA Most models have been flipping the column to snow by midday. Like Chris said last night, I kinda like the depth increase in this for totals. That would put us at 2-3” on the NAM. That’s a nice little norlun feature modeled on the 3k for coastal locations.

They had an epically shitty winter last season. But the 600+ day streak is so CNN since it includes two full warm seasons on each bookend.

That NYC 1” snowfall stat even triggers me every time I see it. The point stands…there’s been little to no snow down there, but the “no 1” snowfall” stat for NYC is disingenuous.

00z Nammy is snowing here midday tomorrow at 33-34F. Could be a little sloppy the first few hours. Currently 36.6F with FG

With December not looking great you’ve already lost 2 winter months. Punxy Phil cancels the rest of winter 2 months from today. That only leaves you January for appreciable snow and you’re only at a dusting on the season now. Not good.

Wolfie is starting the season off rabid. Hopefully we don’t have to put him down at some point.

I’ll take pics for you

Already up to 51° with sun. Sneaky little torch day to start Dewcember.

Not wild about the primary holding that strong into upstate NY and already being on the edge here, but it can be done. I feel like there’s more room to go wrong than right from this point for CNE. Nammy is glop here, but snowier into the deeper wedging toward dryslot.

That’s 925…probably a flip to snow for you at some point in the 2nd half

A little surprised there’s not much in the way of a mixed ptype zone in the soundings. It’s pretty much riding the line isothermal here. That subtle BD and CADing out ahead of the primary is the real key for snow here.

Damn you beat me to it.

Kp just shot up to 7 with a strong south Bz…sure enough right after sunrise.

Goofus with a lean toward the euro for Monday.

Yeah I doubt that’s the “big” one.

fyi I’m not saying 18z euro was the “blink”.

Later developing secondary this run.

I think the euro will “blink”. 18z looks like a trend toward meh here.

Give me a heads up if you see anything decent out there.

Around 9z maybe?

We all fall in love with the fancy hires QPF and clowns now at d5-7. The models are really damn impressive. As the decades go by our expectations change and we demand more from them and want specific deets many days out. I think many of us forget what they were like in 2010 or 2000. They've missed plenty of storms in the past. Heck I remember when the euro was gaining its king status back when it only ran once per day, most of us did not get to see QPF, and we basically forecasted using H5-7-85 and 2m/1000mb. We were toggling coarse SLP contours on unisys.

Nothing scientific here, but I think they tinker with these models so much now that it’s difficult to analyze year to year trends.

Times are zulu/GMT...not EST. 12z is 7am EST and 18z is 1pm EST

It’ll be 1038 next run

We finally get our ‘38