dendrite

lol at putting your faith in the 12k nam when it’s well north of consensus.

1.1° with wind. Not fun for chickens.

Yeah that’s RH and wind streamlines at 700. The shading is RH…blue >95%. But you can see where those streamlines all converge in an axis NW-SE through New England where that light QPF hangs on. I could post the vorticity too and you’d see a max punching through here. Older runs were a little more flat and diffuse with shortwave energy.

There’s not a lot of moisture to work with in the profile. But if you loop the H5 vorticity trend you will see that s/w and embedded vortmax strengthening and slicing over CNE more with time. So yeah, a little dPVA and some H7 convergence and you get some mid level hangback snows after the main isentropic push affects SW SNE. I guess the key is how moist the low levels remain. If the globals were more NE and the nams were dry I’d be more pessimistic since the nam can sniff out that virga a little better with it’s extra vertical levels…but that isn’t the case. Of course the nam could be on the sauce anyway. It’s probably best to just ride a euro/consensus blend right now.

The main push of WAA forcing is well to our SW. Some of the models have some mid level hangback lighter precip even up to here. There could be some fluff factor to that, but the whole profile is pretty cold so you have to be careful about the kuchie getting out of control.

Put the kuchie down

Pretty good speed convergence initially there. 65-70kt flow screeching to a halt over SNE. A little stretching along that axis too. But you can see how it starts falling apart there 6hr later and that LLJ slides SE.

18.6F and roaring. There were snow showers most of the afternoon.

Looking at things a bit...most of the modeling seems to have good ratios in the SW 1/3 of CT back to about POU and into LI. There's good omega in that H5-6 layer where the max DGZ is even though that warm nose/fronto tries to punch in around H7 in NYC metro. The lift tails off pretty quickly N and E of there. Maybe a period of 12-15:1 avg ratios in that max zone and then stick closer to 10-12:1 near a DDH-PVD line. Whoever gets in on the fringes in that 0.15" or less area is likely battling the low level RH and having some of the crystals getting eaten up a bit. Maybe a little OES enhancement along the Cape too? Here's a little x-section from the 3k nam for tomorrow evening. I'll be lucky to get a flurry here. That wind is roaring right now too...have had a few 35mph gusts on the Davis which is probably more like 45mph with better siting.

SREFs…for when desperate times call for desperate measures.

AI. Don’t do it.

Merry Christmas weenies

Santa just brought a gift to SNE and Vixen just dropped a gift on Moosup.

I love how he always tracks my next snowstorm for me while I’m measuring the current one.

2017?

Not 17

Congrats on the backdoor weenie band.

NHZ to LEW crushed

I just checked the cocorahs map and it looks like there was a mini local max zone through here. It’s still a hair over 6”on a level out there despite some settling. I guess the banding lined up just right. And yes, I hope everyone either had a happy Hanukkah or has a Merry Christmas.

It’s easy to forget how potent these events can be given the inverted flake jokes. But when a real deal norlun comes around they can dump over a good area in a short amount of time. It’s on that borderline of shovel or snowblow for me. If I snowblow I leave an inch that gets packed down and turns to ice or I bust my ass to get it near dirt level.

Just took a core. 6.4”/0.51” final

25.8° -SHSN Nice scene

Finished with 6.4” here

Beast trough

5.6” Still snowing decently