dendrite

Sleep right through the storm?

He misses the 00z and 12z runs to sleep but wakes up for 6z to post all by himself. I don’t understand it.

I really like the 3k NAM…so much that I really don’t even look at the 12k much anymore except for mid/upper charts that aren’t as readily available with the 3k. I don’t view the SREFs much anymore…ineedsnow forces me to see it. But when they transitioned away from the ETA and RSM members for the NMM and ARW we still kept watchful eyes on it. You would know better than me what the verification stats are, but sensible wx wise I feel like the NMM members performed better. Even with this storm, the SREFs have had some members tracking the sfc low into LI or SE MA. No other operational models are doing that. They’re still pretty far NW at 21z, but every run they keep ticking SE toward the globals But I appreciate all of the work that goes into these models and in trying to further the science and improve the verification and resolution.

There’s heavy precipitation, but the reflectivity is bright banding. The model simulates it. View the ptype loop. The really deep blue shading that’s like 40dBZ is where the model tries to indicate wet snow.

Bright banding/wet snow

And I’m not trying to pigpile on the hires stuff. I think they have a purpose and are good in some areas. But too often they seem to start getting synoptically off when you start getting past 12hr.

More like anything past 0hr. I’m not the only one here that feels that way too. I know Will goes on SREFs rants because they pulled the spectral RSMs out for the ARWs.

I don’t even find the FV3, ARWs, and SREFs useable. RAP I forget exists. HRRR starts falling off a cliff after 12-24hr. But I’m sure the NWS likes it because the high res must help them fill their zones in the short range.

A lot of those mesos are usually out in left field…especially the convective allowing ones.

I was just showing the seclusion at H85. The H6-7 fronto gets even up to here as the mid/upper lows weaken and widen. But there’s like 70kt of inflow that hits a brick wall PHL-NYC-HFD

Yeah there’s big mid level fronto there from NJ-NYC-CT along that back bent wf. Check out this weenie warm seclusion too

I like the one almost to Nova Scotia already

Downhill. Don’t do it

Does Harv know he prefers Tip?

Some here only like to track storms. Once the storm hits they’d rather look at the 186hr ensembles instead of watching it snow 3”/hr.

Never forget. Sorry NYC

I had over 1” QPF on some of those runs leading up to it. The RGEM hit that band hard the night before too. But I understand your point.

We just don’t know.

6.6”/0.54” final

What’s up with the hyperbole today? We analyze model runs here…even the ones that aren’t the snowiest or the ones that tick SE. No one is saying the large scale features are changing. It’s just IMBY posts. But I do get a kick out of latching onto the roided out mesos yet when they nuke into NNE they get tossed for being over done. Never change weenies.

Feels like we’re finally working toward a consensus

AIFS a little SE

lol you weenies are a trip

0.15” QPF for me that run.