dendrite

No thanks...we'd have an ice cap while tanning.

I think today is beautiful, but this is COC now?

Below normal

It mixed out a bit, but I don’t think of this as a traditional chamber airmass even though it’s a beautiful day. Dews will be back in the mid 60s there this evening into tomorrow. There’s a larger airmass change tomorrow into Friday in NNE, but the front will be hung up way down there. Next week we may see more of a backbreaker.

Dews at “Back broken” time

Ken gone wild. Ginxy doesn’t live in CON but ok

Beer?

It was near 70 at the time of your post.

Dews near 70° are COC?

Min 65.0° Summer pattern continues on the hrrr. Frontal convection dies north and west of us today and then the south coast gets dumped on tomorrow night while it’s light showers up here. Lock it in.

heh. Found the obs. Almost the same exact deal as today. A nice TSRA to bring the swampazz back after the 100F too. MIA,1942-07-21 15:00,METAR KMIA 211500Z 31510KT 34/23 A2997 RMK AO2 SLP152 T03390233 MIA,1942-07-21 16:00,METAR KMIA 211600Z 31507KT 35/22 A2997 RMK AO2 SLP152 T03500217 MIA,1942-07-21 17:00,METAR KMIA 211700Z 27008KT 35/22 A2996 RMK AO2 SLP149 T03500217 MIA,1942-07-21 18:00,METAR KMIA 211800Z 27008KT 36/24 A2993 RMK AO2 SLP139 T03610244 MIA,1942-07-21 19:00,METAR KMIA 211900Z 36006KT 38/21 A2992 RMK AO2 SLP135 T03780211 MIA,1942-07-21 20:00,METAR KMIA 212000Z 13507KT 8SM +TSRA SHRA 34/24 A2991 RMK AO2 SLP132 T03390244

Close at FLL and HST too. Really interesting setup for a mid summer afternoon down there. NNW flow and dews somewhat mixed out.

He used to post the “Steffi” here from time to time.

Sure. We always laughed at the 3k orographics and knew it was overdoing it in the mtns…it was more of a signal rather than taking the QPF verbatim. The 12k always seemed more zonked in coastals to me even near go-time. The running joke here in the winter is we’re always waiting for that run the day before a SNE biggie that jackpots here to northern VT. But the 3k was really good with CAD and (imo) ptype in those overrunning situations. Convection is hit or miss, but I never saw it as any worse than the other hires models. I just feel like it had its purpose and times where it was useful. We still seem reluctant to dive into full 4dvar like ecmwf. I haven’t talked to Alicia B. in years so I should pick her brain more, but maybe you can explain to me while we’re still messing with 3.5dvar or other hybrids. I remember a study many years ago that showed the gfs error scores were similar to the ec when using their data assimilation. So it seems like there’s value there.

Does he have an archive of vis captures from great coastal misses over the North Atlantic?

I think the MPAS is the v2 Scott referred to. The other has the broken FV3 core. Someone else more in the know can correct me if I’m wrong.

Actually I’m a meaty urologist, but this was the closest tag we had.

Looks like Pivotal recently changed up their RRFS products. They only had RRFS-A for awhile, but now there’s RRFS and GSL-MPAS-RRFSA. I’ll admit I haven’t been keeping up with the documentation on this.

That’s impressive for August

I actually thought the 3k did a good job most of the time…especially if the synoptics were being handled relatively well by most models. I had little to no use for the 12k. But at least we had a lot of experience with the nam and when to use it as guidance. I’m not a fan of trying to learn a new model with a (pun intended) rotten core.

The weekly crop moisture index seems to pass the eye test for 0-3m depth soil moisture. The drought monitor doesn’t seem applicable for someone like me growing plants and fruit trees

I think it could break positive if the mean trough is more over the lakes. It’s not overly torchy or anything though.

What in the sam hell is that filter he’s using? (The one from 8/15)

Only +1F instead of +10F?