dendrite

My family will text me later ”is it true we’re getting 3ft of snow over the next couple weeks?”

The weenie social media mets will have fun hyping it

Blizzard loop into PWM

We pray

The 540 critical thickness was more important in forecasting in the 1990s when we were more limited on the model data we received. It’s definitely outdated now. Usually it can snow even with a 552dm thickness in these overrunning SWFE setups.

It’s the thickness of the 1000-500mb layer and it’s dependent upon the average temperature of the layer. The warmer it is…the more it “expands”…the taller is it. The colder….the more dense…the lower it is. But this isn’t a standard avg 1000-500 layer…this airmass will be biased cold in the lower half and warmer than average in the upper half. So the 540 thickness rule of thumb for RA vs SN doesn’t really apply. Forecast soundings are better and easy to find for all models today. If you’re going to bother with thickness it would be better to use partial ones like 700-850 for midlevel warming.

That won’t matter in this with a SW flow setup. The big warming influence on those thicknesses are 700mb and higher and those levels are plenty cold for snow.

The H7 flow tries to back a little toward the end, but it seems like there isn’t a lot there right now to create anything more than a brief 850 and lower spin up. The trough axis is still over MI midday Monday. That sorta keeps some mid level fluffies continuing through the day until the upper system passes, but it all seems too disjointed to me right now for any kind of deeper system potentially developing (although some runs did try to go crazy once in the GOM). But even something more shallow could try to get the conveyors going and enhance the rates in parts of SNE. But I agree…we’ve seen big changes at this time out before.

Still not a big difference sensibly. Of course all models are pretty much SW flow right down to H7 for the entirety so I’m not sure how much a little difference at H5 will make.

GFS has that James Bay S/w now too

It’s the icon so take it fwiw, but for my latitude I didn’t like seeing the northern stream putting more of its energy into advancing that Ontario shortwave along quicker versus dumping it into the backside of that trough like previous runs did. There’s more action around James Bay this run too trying to kick pieces along.

Gut feeling is ICON ticks south…seems to be a bit more suppression in the northern stream edit….looks like it ended up not being a major difference sensibly

I would gladly trade

I like the downsloping vector too

If I measure in May did it even snow all winter?

Yeah I don’t see lollies to 24”.

I can’t wait for BOX to delete his total from the PNS

Mike Margavage

This will be one of those events too where Ray is clearing every 6hrs and ends up with 5” more than the guy across the street who sticks his yardstick in at the end. 1”+ of QPF as primarily fluff will have natural compaction.

1.0”/0.04” of pure fluff

Flaking 17.6°

It was snowing 17.5°

Have you taught him about the Tolland downslope?

Nah it’s good how you have it. Let him keep feeling the anxiety whenever he views it.