dendrite

NAM is still very amped. Nice model battle. Back to bed.

Idk what we’re even arguing anymore. I had been saying the GFS was likely overdoing the amplification the past couple days. But the gfs and ec were polar outliers and guess what? They’ve been slowly meeting in the middle. But I don’t recall the GFS being the NW extreme a common occurrence.

This. The GFS was regularly a shredded POS well offshore right until 24-48hrs out and we never even worried about it.

The mean has been pretty consistent, but yeah, this is a hell of a way to get there.

The 12z op had 0.20” to HFD and ORH. The AI has barely had precip anywhere in the region until recently. I’ve been okay with the EPS and AI ens. But I’d like to see more consistency from the ec ops before riding anything.

Looks like some kind of convective mesolow. That’s like 50kt sustained.

Euro op is on an island. Good luck with that ride.

Still pretty warm llvls for a lot of SNE. Def a tick cooler though.

GFS has a little fronto finger up here on the front end.

I would laugh if the gfs ends up the most SE out of all 12z models

Yeah I don’t think anyone denies the H5 improvements over time. And I think we forget how off and how coarse the solutions were at d5+ over a decade ago. I almost feel like there’s too much resolution in the long range combined with the increasing error and you start ending up with more chaos with the deterministic solutions and we start overanalyzing details like QPF and temps too far out.

Yeah it really liked that 2nd s/w dropping out of Canada and phased it right in.

For the drought monitor weenies. We’re at only about 2” for the month from here to CON.

Goofus actually has another somewhat strong s/w behind the main one. Maybe acting a bit as a kicker to speed it up?

Here’s what I was eyeing from the 6z run out west

The s/w starts coming ashore around 12z. I think it’ll be more into the RAOB network for the 00z runs…if you’re into believing in that sorta thing in this day and age in weather modeling. Anyway, that s/w has been digging into the SW and over the 4 corners region before coming out into the midwest. Over the last day or so there’s been another weaker northern piece that has been working in over the midwest. On most runs they’ve been lockstep and the system has been able to amplify some as it reaches our region. They seem a little more disjointed on the 6z euro…either it’s getting out ahead of the main s/w or the main one is lagging behind a bit. Either way it seems to be flattening the flow and not allowing the main s/w to amplify much and the whole thing remains more positively tilted as it reaches us. The end result is a much weaker/south system. Here’s the last 4 runs of H5 from the euro valid 3z Wed.

Euro AI ens have been consistently good for up here. Totally opposite of the AI “op”.

Bob only creating juju for himself.

6z was a hoot Maybe we can whiff the region by Tuesday

6z eps way SE too. AI ens are still good for the interior. What a mess.

That’s cute but you forgot the 6z gfs

How about NYC? Asking for a friend.

TAN jacked and Foxboro grazed?

Looks like tomorrow morning. RAOBs are closer to 11z though so I would feel more confident with the 00z runs tomorrow.