SACRUS
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70/ 53 and mostly sunny. Another fabulous day on tap. Near / low 80s and mostly sunny / breezy. ULL spins around and brings the next (repeat of wed) chance of storms Fri (6/16) and lingering Sat (6/17). Fathers Day looking very nice to split the weekend with (repeat of Tue/Thu) near / 80s and sunny. Building ridge in the Rockies / Southern Plains builds east and into Southern Canada. A weakness under the ridge closes off in the W VA/ Carolina area 6/19 - 626. Onshore flow - how long will it go. With low a bit north of where it was memorial Day weekend means clouds and showers nearby in the period especially in southern NJ. Winds will eventually shift southerly mid/late next week and more widespread rain as the low eventually lifts north and out. Could see totals 2- 4 inches over the 7 day period or more where storms are stongest and slowest. Clos of the month heat heads south into the area. We'll see f the W/ Atlantic Ridge shoves west and more persistent warmth comes to open the month.
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6/14 ACY: 79 EWR: 79 BLM: 79 PHL: 77 TEB: 77 New Brnswck: 77 LGA: 76 NYC: 76 TTN: 75 ISP: 72 JFK: 72
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Records: Highs: EWR: 99 (1988) NYC: 99 (1956) LGA: 99 (1956) Lows: EWR: 49 (1978) NYC: 49 (1875) LGA: 51 (1978) Historical: 1903 - The Heppner Disaster occurred in Oregon. A cloudburst in the hills sent a flood down Willow Creek, and a twenty foot wall of water swept away a third of the town in minutes, killing 236 residents and causing 100 million dollars damage. (David Ludlum) 1961 - The temperature in Downtown San Francisco, CA, soared to 106 degrees to establish an all-time record for that location. (The Weather Channel) 1987 - Thirty-two cities in the central U.S. reported record high temperatures for the date. The high of 97 degrees at Flint, MI, tied their record for June, and the high of 101 at Milwaukee WI marked their first 100 degree reading in 32 years. Thunderstorms brought much needed rains to South Texas, drenching McAllen with 3.2 inches in one hour. A thunderstorm soaked the town of Uncertain with 2.3 inches of rain in one hour. (The National Weather Summary) 1988 - Thirty cities in the eastern U.S. reported record high temperatures for the date. (The National Weather Summary) 1989 - Thunderstorms developing ahead of a cold front produced severe weather from the Central Gulf States to the Middle Atlantic Coast Region during the day and into the night. There were 62 reports of large hail and damaging winds. Thunderstorm winds caused 28 million dollars damage in Montgomery County MD. (Storm Data) (The National Weather Summary)
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72/60 and mostly sunny (for now) as clouds and showers are to the EPA border. Showers some storms this morning into the afternoon. Clouds and rain should cap temps in the md 70s. Thu (6/15) a warmer redo of Tue , mostly sunny and stunning near / low 80s. Fri (6/16) a redo of today perhaps a bit more widespread showers and storms as the ULL moves through Upstate NY into SNE. Storms and clouds stubborn and lingering into the split of the weekend with most of Sat cloudy with showers / storms. Probably some breaks in the clouds at times but not a great day. Fathers day looking dry and very pleasant near 80 / low 80s. 6/19 - 6/26 Ridge and heat continues to build into the Rockies, TX / Southern Plains, as the ridge builds and heat pushes over the north into Southern Canada, a cut off trough into the W Carolinas/VA pushes an onshore flow into the area. This is more reminiscent of Memorial day low a bit north. So clouds and showers are closer by especially southern sections but some nicer / drier days in between. The brunt of the rain axis looks south into VA/NC/MD. We'll see. The Southern Cali pattern continues but have seen similar Junes progress this way with big heat into Canada before building down and then the W/ Atlantic Ridge builds west, Beyond, as this cut off and associated lows lifts out and the flow comes around to the N/NW heat into Southern Canada could setup the next warm period to close the month. We'll see if the tendency is to cut off another trough into the Northeast. But overall a warmer look as there isn't much cool air around outside the onshore flow. spinning wheel.
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6/13 EWR: 83 LGA: 81 TEB: 81 JFK: 80 BLM: 80 ACY: 79 New Brnswck: 79 PHL: 79 ISP: 78 NYC: 78 TTN: 77
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Records: Highs: EWR: 99 (2017) NYC: 96 (1961) LGA: 101 (2017) Lows: EWR: 51 (1982) LGA: 51 (1982) NYC: 51 (1953) Historical: 1889 - Forest fires in northern Wisconsin and northeast Minnesota were in the process of destroying millions of dollars of board feet of timber. (David Ludlum) 1907 - The temperature at Tamarack, CA, dipped to 2 degrees above zero, the lowest reading of record for June for the U.S. The high that day was 30 degrees. Tamarack received 42 inches of snow between the 10th and the 13th. On the 13th the snow depth was 130 inches. (The Weather Channel) 1984 - Severe thunderstorms struck Denver deluging the city with five inches of rain, and leaving up to six feet of water in some places. Softball size hail smashed windshields and ripped through metal cars. Snow plows had to be called out. (The Weather Channel) 1987 - Fifteen cities in the north central U.S. reported record high temperatures for the date, including International Falls, MN, with a reading of 92 degrees. Mason City IA and Waterloo IA reported record highs of 100 degrees. Thunderstorms in the northeastern U.S. produced golf ball size hail around Hamilton Square NJ, along with high winds which tore the roof off a hospital causing a million dollars damage. Averill Park NY was deluged with 1.64 inches of rain in fifteen minutes. (Storm Data) (The National Weather Summary) 1988 - Afternoon thunderstorms produced severe weather in the Southern and Central Plains Region. Forrest NM was deluged with 5.5 inches of rain in ninety minutes. Temperatures soared into the 90s across much of the eastern half of the nation, including New England. Northern Illinois reported a record twenty straight days of dry weather. (The National Weather Summary) 1989 - Thunderstorms produced severe weather from the Southern Plains Region to the Carolinas during the day and night, and continued to drench parts of Texas and Oklahoma with heavy rain. Oklahoma City reported 13.41 inches of rain for the first thirteen days of the month, and Fort Worth TX reported 29.56 inches for the year, a total more than 13 inches above normal. Severe drought continued to rage across South Texas. (The National Weather Summary)
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0.50 here to wake up the frogs. 00Z guidance a bit less rainfall through Day 10 than prior guidance but still looks wetter.
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65 / 54 and clearing partly sunny. One the way to a gorgeous day. Near / low 80s for most. Wed (6/14) more clods and scattered showers and storms as ULL moves through the Catskills. Thu (6/15) a repeat of Tuesday with mostly sunny and near / low 80s. Friday is similar to Wed with clouds and showers moving through and cooler. The weekend split looks reversed clouds and lingering storms and showers before a splendid fathers day (6/18). The period 6./19 - 6/26 ULL # 4 , 5, 6 and where will they cut off under the building ridge. Latest guidance favors the Ohio valley and into western VA / Carolinas with strong onshore flow into the area. We'll have to see the eventual progression but this keeps the area capped near / below normal and pending o location(s) of these cut offs and tendency for weakness into the E to back troughs in, could spell rain chances. Beyond there we'll see if the building furnace into the Rockies and S plains/ TX//OK ejects pieces to end the month o a hotter note. Watching for the Western Atlantic Ridge to build west as we close the month.
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6/12 TEB: 86 PHL: 84 TTN: 84 New Brnswck: 83 LGA: 81 EWR: 78 BLM: 78 ACY: 78 NYC: 78 JFK: 76 ISP: 76
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Some clearing and further fuel maybe. Up to 80/67 here.
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Records: Highs: EWR: 97 (2017) NYC: 93 (2017) LGA: 96 (2017) Lows: EWR: 47 (1951) NYC: 48 (1979) LGA: 49 (1979) Historical: 1881 - Severe thunderstorms spawned more than half a dozen tornadoes in the Lower Missouri Valley. Five of the tornadoes touched down near Saint Joseph MO. In south central Kansas a tornado nearly wiped out the town of Floral. Hail and high winds struck Iowa and southern Minnesota. In Minnesota, Blue Earth City reported five inches of rain in one hour. (David Ludlum) 1915: An estimated F4 tornado moved northeast from northwest of Waterville, Iowa crossing the Mississippi River two miles south of Ferryville, Wisconsin. A man and his daughter were killed in one of three homes that were obliterated southwest of "Heytman," a small railroad station on the Mississippi River. 60 buildings and eight homes were destroyed in Wisconsin. This tornado caused approximately $200,000 in damage. In addition to this tornado, another estimated F4 tornado moved northeast across Fayette and Clayton Counties in northeast Iowa. One farm was devastated, the house and barn leveled. Heavy machinery was thrown 300 yards. Clothing was carried two miles. 1947 - A heavy wet snow blanketed much of southern and central Wyoming, and gave many places their heaviest and latest snow of record. Totals included 18.4 inches at Lander, 8.7 inches at Cheyenne, and 4.5 inches at Casper. (11th-12th) (The Weather Channel) 1948: The Columbia River Basin flood peaked on this date in the Northwest. The flood produced the highest water level in the basin since the flood there in 1894. The damage estimate for the 1948 flood was $101 million, and 75 lives were lost. 1969 - Record late season snows covered parts of Montana. Five inches was reported at Great Falls and east of Broadus. Billings, MT, tied their June record with lows of 32 degrees on the 12th and the 13th. (The Weather Channel) 1983 - The state of Utah was beseiged by floods and mudslides. Streets in downtown Salt Lake City were sandbagged and turned into rivers of relief. The town of Thistle was completely inundated as a mudslide made a natural dam. (The Weather Channel) 1987 - Thunderstorms in Nebraska produced softball size hail around Fremont and Ames, and 3.5 inches of rain in less than one hour. Four and a half inches in less than an hour caused flooding around Ithica, NE. A tornado destroyed a mobile home near Broken Bow, NE, injuring both occupants. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1988 - Fifteen cities in the southeastern U.S. reported record low temperatures for the date, including Asheville with a reading of 40 degrees. Drought conditions continued to intensify across the eastern half of the nation. Rainfall at Nashville, TN, was running 12.5 inches below normal. (The National Weather Summary) 1989 - Thunderstorms produced severe weather from Tennessee Valley to the Central Appalachians in the afternoon and evening, and produced severe weather in Oklahoma and Texas during the evening and night. Thunderstorms spawned ten tornadoes, and there were 164 reports of large hail and damaging winds. Thunderstorms produced wind gusts to 100 mph at Amarillo, TX, and wind gusts to 110 mph at Denton TX. Hail three inches in diameter was reported at Tucumcari NM. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 2005 - A tornado in Hammond, Wisconsin damaged 22 homes and produced $3.6 million in damage (Associated Press).
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71 and muggy Dewpoint at 64. Mostly cloudy, although there could be a some sun poking through a bunch of times. Storms this afternoon and overnight into the overnight. 0.50 - 0.75 with some spots getting over an inch in the heaviest storms. Tue (6/13) clears and it is a gorgeous day low 80s. Wed more clouds / scattered storms as the ULL slowly lifts out of the northeast. Thu (6/15) looks like a carbon copy of Tue /low 80s and mainly sunny conditions. Fri (6/16) looking like a copy of Wed with clouds and scattered storms. The coming weekend looks split with a clear / sunny Sat (617) and more clouds and showers fathers day. Beyond there. Ridge flexes into the Rockies / S Plains and as t comes east a trough cuts off under the burgeoning ridge and it sets up ULL #4 with 5, 6 potentially lingering through 6/25. The period 6/19 - 6/25 looks similar to Memorial Day weekend only the cut looks poised to impact the N Mid Atlantic / Northeast as ridge / heat build into Canada. We'll see how it progresses but potentially onshore flow (how long could it go) and how much rain can reverse the dryness. We've seen similar progressions with near normal / cool Junes before the heats builds down to end June.
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6/11 PHL: 89 TTN: 88 New Brnswck: 87 ACY: 87 EWR: 85 TEB: 84 LGA: 83 BLM: 82 NYC: 82 ISP: 78 JFK: 76
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Made it to 88 ahead of the clouds. COuld see more breaks between 3 - 5pm
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Records: Highs: EWR: 96 (2000) NYC: 95 (1973) LGA: 96 (1984) Lows: EWR: 46 (1980) NYC: 46 (1972) LGA: 46 (1972) Historical: 1842 - A late season snowstorm struck New England. Snow fell during the morning and early afternoon, accumulating to a depth of ten to twelve inches at Irasburg VT. Berlin NH was blanketed with eleven inches of snow during the day. Snow whitened the higher peaks of the Appalachians as far south as Maryland. (David Ludlum) 1842: A late-season snowstorm struck New England. Snow fell during the morning and early afternoon, accumulating to a depth of ten to twelve inches at Irasburg, Vermont. Berlin, New Hampshire was blanketed with eleven inches of snow during the day. Snow whitened the higher peaks of the Appalachians as far south as Maryland. The latest date for the occurrence of a general snowstorm in our period over northern New England and northern New York came in 1842 on the morning of 11 June. Zadock Thompson, a professor of natural history and the Queen City's longtime weatherman, commented: "Snow during the forenoon's boards whitened and the mountains as white as in winter." 1877 - The temperature at Los Angeles, CA, reached 112 degrees during a heatwave. It would have been the all-time record for Los Angeles but official records did not begin until twenty days later. (The Weather Channel) 1972 - Heavy showers brought 1.64 inches of rain to Phoenix AZ, a record for the month of June. (The Weather Channel) 1987 - South Texas endured another day of torrential rains. Up to twelve inches of rain drenched Harris County, and nearly ten inches soaked Luce Bayou, mainly during the afternoon hours. Thunderstorm rains left seven feet of water over Highway 189 in northern Val Verde County. Flooding caused nine million dollars damage in Real County. A thunderstorm at Perryton, TX, produced golf ball size hail and 70 mph winds, and spawned a tornado which struck a mobile killing one person and injuring the other four occupants. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1988 - Thirty cities in the central and eastern U.S. reported record low temperatures for the date, including El Dorado, AR, with a reading of 48 degrees. Canaan Valley WV and Thomas WV dipped to 30 degrees. Flagstaff AZ was the cold spot in the nation with a low of 30 degrees. Coolidge, just 180 miles away, was the hot spot in the nation with an afternoon high of 105 degrees. (The National Weather Summary) 1989 - Thunderstorms produced severe weather in the south central and southeastern U.S. during the day and night. Thunderstorms spawned eleven tornadoes, including one which tore the roof off a restaurant at Bee Branch, AR, injuring six persons. The tornado tossed one car into the restaurant, and another car over it. Temperatures soared into the 90s across much of Florida. Lakeland reported a record high of 99 degrees for the second day in a row. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1990: One of the most expensive hailstorms in U.S. history occurred as $625 million of damage was caused along the Colorado Front Range from Colorado Springs to Estes Park. Golf to baseball sized hail fell along with heavy rain. 60 people were injured in the storm.
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66/57 and a SSW wind with partly cloudy skies and a warmer with highs in the low perhaps mid 80s depending on clouds arrival. ULL #3 is cutting off over the Great Lakes and will slowly progress east over the next 5 days. A low with in the cut off torugh will push through later Mon (6/12) and Tue (6/13) bringing a widespread .50 - 0.75 or more rain to the area. First meaningful widespread rain since May 20th (outside the isolated storms last Tue). Overall near normal the ret of the week with highs upper 70s / near 80 Wed (6/14) and low 80s Thu (6/15). Chances for clods and scattered showers storms Wed. Cut off lifts out by the end of the week. Beyond there the Euro flattens the flow and warms it up gradually by fathers day (6/18) into the following week. We'll see if the weakness and tendency for cut off into the east shifts more north. Strong ridge and heat build into the Rockies and S plains and pieces ejecting east the final 9 - 10 days of June. GFS and ECM control had some su tropical in the way beyond.
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6/10 ACY: 83 PHL: 83 EWR: 83 TTN: 82 New Brnswck: 82 JFK: 80 BLM: 79 TEB: 79 LGA: 78 NYC: 78 ISP: 76
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Records: Highs: EWR: 99 (2008) NYC: 96 (2008) LGA: 100 (2008) Lows: EWR: 49 (1972) NYC: 49 (1972) LGA: 48 (1972) Historical: 1752 - It is believed that this was the day Benjamin Franklin narrowly missed electrocution while flying a kite during a thunderstorm to determine if lightning is related to electricity. (David Ludlum) 1957 - A dust devil at North Yarmouth, ME, lifted a 600 to 1000 pound chicken shelter into the air and carried it 25 feet. It landed upright with only slight damage. It is unknown whether any eggs were scrambled. (The Weather Channel) 1958 - A woman was sucked through the window of her home in El Dorado, KS, by a powerful tornado, and was carried sixty feet away. Beside her was found a broken phonograph record entitled Stormy Weather . (The Weather Channel) 1987 - Thunderstorms produced 2 to 4 inch rains in southern Texas. Two and a half inches of rain at Juno TX caused flooding and closed a nearby highway. Flooding on the northwest side of San Antonio claimed one life as a boy was swept into a culvert. Thunderstorms in the north central U.S. produced an inch and a half of small hail at Monida Pass MT. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1988 - Three dozen cities, mostly in the eastern U.S., reported record low temperatures for the date, including Elkins, WV, with a reading of 33 degrees. Unseasonably hot weather continued in the Northern High Plains Region. The record high of 105 degeees at Williston, ND, was their seventh in eight days. (The National Weather Summary) 1989 - Thunderstorms produced severe weather through the day and night across much of the southern half of the Great Plains Region. Thunderstorms spawned 14 tornadoes, and there were 142 reports of large hail and damaging winds. Hail three inches in diameter caused three millions dollars damage at Carlsbad, NM. Hail four inches in diameter was reported at Estelline TX and Stinnett, TX. Thunderstorm winds gusted to 80 mph at Odessa TX. (Storm Data) (The National Weather Summary) 1997: Flash Flooding occurred in many locations in Mississippi. Highway 80 and many other streets were flooded in and around Vicksburg. Water engulfed one person's car, but the person was rescued. This event caused $300,000 in property damages. Over 6 inches of rain fell in Lexington in a little over 3 hours. The torrential rains caused Bear Creek to overflow and flood much of the town of Lexington. 45 businesses were affected by the flooding and 30 of these suffered major losses. As many as 300 homes had water damage. This event caused 10 million dollars in property damages. Portions of Jones County experienced flash flooding as 3 inches of rain fell in just 1.5 hours over saturated ground.
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71 and mostly sunny. Another splendid weekend on tap but rainfall needed. Upper 70s and low 80s today and with smoke out of the way and full sunshine we'll see if the recent dryness allows highs to exceed guidance. Sun (6/11) mid to perhaps upper 80s. Low cuts off under the building ridge (#3 since May with tendency / weakness into the NE). First meaningful / measurable rain comes later Mon (6/13) into Tue (6/14) with a general 0.5 - 075 / 1.00 inches for most. The ULL lifts through Wed (6/15) and near normal temps for the rest of the week. Beyond there we'll see if we get a fourth cut off and onshore tendency between 6/16 and 6/19. Ridge and heat building into the Rockies / Plains and GL by the last 10 days of june and we'll see pieces eject east. A more typical progression from the past Junes 2015,16,18 perhaps.
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Last measurable rainfall (outside of the storms on Tuesday) was May 20th for most. Monday PM / Tue (6/13) looks like widespread measurable rain for most. 76 here today.
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Records: Highs: EWR: 102 (2011) earliest 100 degree reading NYC: 97 (1993) LGA: 99 (2008) Lows: EWR: 47 (1957) NYC: 47 (1980) LGA: 49 (1980) Historical: 1953 - A tornado hit the town of Worcester MA killing ninety persons. The northeastern states usually remain free of destructive tornadoes, however in this case a low pressure system, responsible for producing severe thunderstorms in Michigan and Ohio the previous day, brought severe weather to New Hampshire and central Massachusetts. The tornado, up to a mile in width at times, tracked 46 miles through Worcester County. It mangled steel towers built to withstand winds of 375 mph. Debris from the tornado fell in the Boston area, and adjacent Atlantic Ocea. (David Ludlum) (The Weather Channel) 1966: Hurricane Alma made landfall over the eastern Florida panhandle becoming the earliest hurricane to make landfall on the United States mainland. 1972 - A cloudburst along the eastern slopes of the Black Hills of South Dakota produced as much as 14 inches of rain resulting in the Rapid City flash flood disaster. The rains, which fell in about four hours time, caused the Canyon Lake Dam to collapse. A wall of water swept through the city drowning 237 persons, and causing more than 100 million dollars property damage. (David Ludlum) 1987 - Lightning struck Tire Mountain near Denver CO, destroying two million tires out of a huge pile of six million tires. Thunderstorms spawned three tornadoes around Denver, and a man was killed at Conifer CO when strong thunderstorm winds lifted up a porch and dropped it on him. A thunderstorm near Compton MD produced two inch hail, and high winds which destroyed twenty barns and ten houses injuring five persons. (Storm Data) (The National Weather Summary) 1988 - Thunderstorms produced severe weather from North Carolina to the Central Gulf Coast Region. Hail in North Carolina caused more than five million dollars damage to property, and more than sixty million dollars damage to crops. Hail three and a half inches in diameter was reported at New Bern NC. Thunderstorms in the Central High Plains produced eighteen inches of hail at Fountain CO. The temperature at Del Rio TX soared to an all-time record high of 112 degrees. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1989 - Severe weather abated for a date, however, showers and thunderstorms continued to drench the eastern U.S. with torrential rains. Milton, FL, was deluged with 15.47 inches in 24 hours. Record heat and prolonged drought in south central Texas left salt deposits on power lines and insulators near the coast, and when nighttime dew caused arcing, the city of Brownsville was plunged into darkness. (The National Weather Summary)
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63 and clear for now. Looks to cloud up later today with some scattered showers possible but not widespread.. Trough and subsequent (#3) ULL/cut off lift out and flow goes around to the SW (westerly) pushing us back towards to normal. With enough sun Sunday (6/11) and Mon (6/12) could over perform mid / upper 80s in the warm spots. Next ULL cuts off (#4) under the advancing expansion of the ridge 6/13 - 6/17 into the Great Lakes and slowly moves into the northeast. Southerly flow could deliver meaningful rain in the period Tue (6/13) and later in the week. Clouds look to be nearby but any clearling will see a warmer more muggy result. Beyond there ridging is moving east but a persistent weakness into the east coast will continue the tendency to cut off ULL underneath the ridge. Ridging looks to potentially build towards the final 8 - 9 days of the month.
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some breaks in the clouds smoke working south slowly
