SACRUS

Another dry week in the works

Records: Highs: EWR: 75 (1949) NYC: 74 (1949) LGA: 74 (1949) JFK: 69 (1949) Lows: EWR: 24 (2017) NYC: 24 (2017) LGA: 26 (2017) JFK: 24 (2017) Historical: 1911 - The central U.S. experienced perhaps its most dramatic cold wave of record. During the early morning temperatures across the Central Plains ranged from 68 degrees at Kansas City to 4 above North Platte NE. In Kansas City, the temperature warmed to a record 76 degrees by late morning before the arctic front moved in from the northwest. Skies become overcast, winds shifted to the northwest, and the mercury began to plummet. By early afternoon it was cold enough to snow, and by midnight the temperature had dipped to a record cold reading of 11 degrees above zero. Oklahoma City also established a record high of 83 degrees and record low of 17 degrees that same day. In southeastern Kansas, the temperature at Independence plunged from 83 degrees to 33 degrees in just one hour. The arctic cold front produced severe thunderstorms and tornadoes in the Mississippi Valley, a blizzard in the Ohio Va 1911: A powerful cold front, known as the Great Blue Norther of 1911, produced some of the most extreme temperature changes to the Nation's midsection. Ahead of the cold front, a warm and moist environment caused a severe weather outbreak with several strong tornadoes reported in Iowa, Illinois, Indiana, Wisconsin, and Michigan. An estimated F4 tornado occurred from Janesville to Milton, Wisconsin, and caused extensive damage to several farms and killed nine people. The citizens of Janesville, Wisconsin, reported blizzard conditions with a temperature near zero within an hour of the tornado. 1940 - An Armistice Day storm raged across the Great Lakes Region and the Upper Midwest. A blizzard left 49 dead in Minnesota, and gales on Lake Michigan caused ship wrecks resulting in another 59 deaths. Up to seventeen inches of snow fell in Iowa, and at Duluth MN the barometric pressure reached 28.66 inches. The blizzard claimed a total of 154 lives, and killed thousands of cattle in Iowa. Whole towns were isolated by huge snowdrifts. (David Ludlum) 1940: An Armistice Day storm raged across the Great Lakes Region and the Upper Midwest. A blizzard left 49 dead in Minnesota, and gales on Lake Michigan caused shipwrecks resulting in 59 deaths. Up to seventeen inches of snow fell in Iowa, and at Duluth MN, the barometric pressure reached 28.66 inches. The blizzard claimed a total of 154 lives and killed thousands of cattle in Iowa. Huge snowdrifts isolated whole towns. 1955 - An early arctic outbreak set many November temperature records across Oregon and Washington. The severe cold damaged shrubs and fruit trees. Readings plunged to near zero in western Washington, and dipped to 19 degrees below zero in the eastern part of the state. (David Ludlum) 1987 - A deepening low pressure system brought heavy snow to the east central U.S. The Veteran's Day storm produced up to 17 inches of snow in the Washington D.C. area snarling traffic and closing schools and airports. Afternoon thunderstorms produced five inches of snow in three hours. Gale force winds lashed the Middle and Northern Atlantic Coast. Norfolk VA reported their earliest measurable snow in 99 years of records. (Storm Data) (The National Weather Summary) 1988 - Low pressure brought snow to parts of the Rocky Mountain Region. Totals in the San Juan Mountains of southwestern Colorado ranged up to 10 inches at Summitville. Evening thunderstorms produced large hail in central Oklahoma and north central Texas. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1989 - Veteran's Day was an unseasonably warm one across much of the nation east of the Rockies. Temperatures warmed into the 70s and 80s from the Southern and Central Plains to the southern half of the Atlantic coast. Thirty-four cities reported record high temperatures for the date, including Saint Louis MO with a reading of 85 degrees. Calico AR and Gilbert AR reported record highs of 87 degrees. (Storm Data) (The National Weather Summary)

0.21 in the bucket 63 / 56 clearing out. Warmest of the next 7 - 9 days (today with highs near 70). Overall near normal with the dryness continuing - watching Thursday if any of the rain can trend northwest, otherwise a dry week ahead. The period to watch remains the 22 - 25 timeframe and beyond. Trough and late season tropics are being forecast in the period. Othrwise the dry run marches on.

53 / 51 light rain 0.04 in the old dry bucket

43 days since having to post this

Records: Highs: EWR: 76 (2020) NYC: 74 (2020) LGA: 75 (2020) JFK: 72 (1999) Lows: EWR: 25 (2017) NYC: 25 (2017) LGA: 27 (2017) JFK: 25 (2017) Historical: 1915 - An unusually late season tornado struck the central Kansas town of Great Bend killing eleven persons along its 35 mile track. The tornado destroyed 160 homes in Great Bend killing 11 persons and causing a million dollars damage. Hundreds of dead ducks dropped from the sky northeast of the track's end. (The Weather Channel) 1975 - Another freshwater fury hit the Great Lakes. A large ore carrier on Lake Superior, the Edmund Fitzgerald, sank near Crisp Point with the loss of its crew of 29 men. Eastern Upper Michigan and coastal Lower Michigan were hardest hit by the storm, which produced wind gusts to 71 at Sault Ste Marie MI, and gusts to 78 mph at Grand Rapids MI. Severe land and road erosion occurred along the Lake Michigan shoreline. A popular hit song by Gordon Lightfoot was inspired by the storm. (David Ludlum) 1975: The SS Edmund Fitzgerald sinks 17 miles northwest of Whitefish Point, at the northeastern tip of Michigan's Upper Peninsula on Lake Superior. While the sinking cause is unknown, strong winds and high waves likely played a significant role. The crew of 29 members was lost from this event. 1987 - A cold front brought snow to the Appalachian Region and freezing temperatures to the central U.S. Up to nine inches of snow blanketed Garrett County of extreme western Maryland. Freezing temperatures were reported as far south as El Paso TX and San Angelo TX. Gale force winds lashed the Middle Atlantic Coast and the coast of southern New England. Thunderstorms brought fire quenching rains to Alabama, and produced large hail and damaging winds to eastern North Carolina. Ahead of the cold front, seven cities in Florida and Georgia reported record high temperatures for the date as readings warmed into the 80s. (Storm Data) (The National Weather Summary) 1988 - Strong winds circulating around a deep low pressure system in southeastern Ontario buffeted the northeastern U.S., with the Lower Great Lakes Region hardest hit. Winds in western New York State gusted to 68 mph at Buffalo, to 69 mph at Niagra Falls, and to 78 mph at Brockport. Four persons were injured at Rome NY when a tree was blown onto their car. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1989 - Strong southwesterly winds prevailed along the eastern slopes of the Rockies in Montana and Wyoming. Winds of 80 to 90 mph prevailed across the northwest chinook zone of Montana, with gusts to 112 mph. Unseasonably warm weather accompanied the high winds. Shortly after midnight the temperature at Kalispell, MT, reached a record 59 degrees. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1989 - Windy and wet weather prevailed across Washington State. Strong southerly winds gusted to 70 mph at Rattlesnake Ridge, near Hanford. Six rivers in western Washington State rose above flood stage between the 9th and the 11th of the month, following eight days of moderate to heavy rain. Rainfall over the western slopes of the Cascade Mountains between the 3rd and the 10th ranged from 14 to 24 inches. High freezing levels also caused the early snowpack to melt, adding to the runoff in the rain-swollen rivers. Damage was heaviest in Whatcom County, where the Nooksack River caused nearly six million dollars damage, mostly to roads and bridges. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 2002 - Severe thunderstorms developed ahead of a strong cold front and produced a widespread outbreak of severe weather including many tornadoes. The worst tornado damage was concentrated in Ohio, Tennessee and Alabama. A tornado rated as F-4 on the Fujita Scale struck Van Wert county in Ohio. In Tennessee, the community of Mossy Grove was nearly destroyed by a mile-wide tornado that claimed 12 lives (ENS). A major outbreak of severe weather and tornadoes occurred across the U.S. Tennessee and Ohio valley region on November 10-11, 2002, producing damage in 13 states. A total of 75 tornadoes touched down on Sunday 10th, resulting in at least 36 deaths (ENS). 2002: The second-largest November tornado outbreak on record over the eastern United States occurred during the Veterans Day weekend of November 9-11th, 2002. Seventy-six tornadoes were reported in seventeen states. Of the 76 tornadoes, almost one out of every six was a killer, resulting in 36 fatalities.

Evolution to a colder close?

44 / 25 off a low of 29. Clouds starting to roll in on what will deliver the first widespread rain (light rain) since Sep 28. Warms up Mon to or near 70 before the next front and cooler period settles in Tue. Shot at showers Thu but not too much forecast. Overall near normal and dry continues through next weekend. Deep front and trough moving through on 21 - 23 period in the beyond, with a colder close to the month.

Down to 38 jere.

Smoke visible from n-nj and nY border

Records: Highs: EWR: 77 (2020) NYC: 75 (2020) LGA: 78 (2020) JFK: 74 (2020) Lows: EWR: 23 (1976) NYC: 24 (1976) LGA: 27 (1971) JFK: 25 (2019) Historical: 1864: On Election Night, a violent tornado strikes a ferry on the Mississippi River near Chester, Illinois, blowing away all but the hull. The boiler and engines are found up the bluff. Half of Chester was destroyed, and twenty died during the storm. 1913 - The freshwater fury , a rapidly deepening cyclone, caused unpredicted gales on the Great Lakes. Eight large ore carriers on Lake Erie sank drowning 270 sailors. Cleveland OH reported 17.4 inches of snow in 24 hours, and a total of 22.2 inches, both all-time records for that location. During the storm, winds at Cleveland averaged 50 mph, with gusts to 79 mph. The storm produced wind gusts to 80 mph at Buffalo NY, and buried Pickens WV under three feet of snow. (9th-11th) (David Ludlum) (The Weather Channel) 1926 - A tornado in Charles County of southern Maryland killed seventeen persons. (The Weather Channel) 1926: An estimated F3 to F4 tornado tore through La Plata, Maryland, killing 14 individuals at a small school. This storm caused 17 deaths and injured 65 others. 1982 - Seven tornadoes touched down in southern California, three of which began as waterspouts. The waterspouts moved ashore at Point Mugu, Malibu, and Long Beach. The Long Beach tornado traveled inland ten miles causing much damage. (The Weather Channel) 1987 - Showers and gusty winds associated with a cold front helped extinguish forest fires in the Appalachian Region and clear out smoke in the eastern U.S. Thunderstorms produced locally heavy rains from eastern Texas to the Tennessee Valley. Longview TX received 3.12 inches of rain, including two inches in two hours, Tupelo MS was soaked with 2.80 inches of rain. (The National Weather Summary) 1988 - Thunderstorms developing ahead of a strong cold front produced severe weather from eastern Oklahoma to central Indiana. Hail more than two inches in diameter was reported around Tulsa OK. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1989 - High winds prevailed along the eastern slopes of the Rockies from the afternoon of the 8th into the early morning hours of the 9th. Winds of 50 to 80 mph prevailed across the northwest chinook area of Wyoming, with gusts to 100 mph. Winds in Colorado gusted to 97 mph at Fritz Peak (located near Rollinsville) the evening of the 8th, and early in the morning on the 9th, gusted to 78 mph west of Fort Collins. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1996 - The Veteran's Day storm of November 9-14, 1996 may be the most severe early season lake effect snow (LES) storm the Great Lakes has witnessed in the past fifty years. At the height of the storm, over 160,000 customers were without power in Greater Cleveland alone, as the storm produced isolated snowfall tallies approaching 70 . As usual with these LES events, the Veteran's Day storm battered snowbelt communities downwind of each of the Great Lakes while nearby towns went unscathed. (University of Illimois WW2010)

Much if this is now Sunday night - Mon with the THu - Fri rain trending offshore NE

Trough West, ridge into the east , trough off the NE

45 / 22 off a low of 39. Mid / upper 50s today. Cloudy and showers , light rain Sun night, first rainfall since Sep 28 for many 0.25 - 0.40. Overall near to slightly above normal this coming week. Rain chances later in the week Thu / Fri could be diminishing with next longer range trough pushing in towards the 18th which could lead to a below normal period into / through the 24th.

Records: Highs: EWR: 77 (2020) NYC: 76 (1975) LGA: 77 (2020) JFK: 74 (2020) Lows: EWR: 27 (1976) NYC: 29 (2019) LGA: 31 (2019) JFK: 28 (1976) Historical: 1870 - The first storm warning was issued by the U.S. Signal Corps Weather Service. (Sandra and TI Richard Sanders - 1987) 1870: The U.S. Signal Corps Weather Service issued the first storm warning on this day. Professor Increase A. Lapham believed that warnings of deadly storms on the Great Lakes could be derived from telegraphed weather observations. As a result, a bill was introduced and signed into law to establish a national telegraphic weather service. The Signal Corps began taking observations of November 1st, 1870. On this date, Lapham would issue the first storm warning, a cautionary forecast for the Great Lakes. 1879: A tornado struck Crawford County, Arkansas, killing several people. 1913: The Great Lakes Storm of November 7-13, 1913, was a blizzard with hurricane-force winds that devastated the Great Lakes Region, sinking as many as 19 ships and stranding 19 others. This storm would be the deadliest and most destructive natural disaster ever to hit the Great Lakes. 1943 - An early season snowstorm raged across eastern South Dakota and Minnesota into northern Wisconsin. The storm produced 22 inches of snow at Fairbult and Marshall MN, 20 inches at Redwood Falls MN, and 10.1 inches at Minneapolis. Drifts fifteen feet high were reported in Cottonwood County MN. The storm produced up to two feet of snow in South Dakota smothering a million Thanksgiving day turkeys. (6th-8th) (David Ludlum) (The Weather Channel) 1953 - Residents of New York City suffered through ten days of smog resulting in 200 deaths. (The Weather Channel) 1966 - The temperature in downtown San Francisco reached a November record of 86 degrees. (The Weather Channel) 1987 - Thunderstorms over Texas produced locally heavy rains in the Hill Country, with 3.50 inches reported at Lakeway, and 3.72 inches reported at Anderson Mill. Thunderstorms over Louisiana produced hail an inch in diameter at Clay and at Provencial. Blustery northwest winds, ushering cold air into western Kansas and into northwest Texas, gusted to 46 mph at Hill City KS. (Storm Data) (The National Weather Summary) 1988 - Fair weather prevailed across much of the nation for Election Day. Midland TX equalled their record for November with an afternoon high of 89 degrees, and the record high of 87 degrees at Roswell NM was their fifth in eight days. (Storm Data) (The National Weather Summary) 1989 - Afternoon and evening thunderstorms developing along and ahead of a cold front produced severe weather from northern Louisiana into central Georgia. Thunderstorms spawned three tornadoes, and there were sixty-four reports of large hail or damaging winds. A late afternoon thunderstorm in central Georgia spawned a tornado which killed one person and injured eight others at Pineview. Late afternoon thunderstorms in central Mississippi produced baseball size hail around Jackson, and wind gusts to 70 mph Walnut Grove. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1994: The twelfth and final tropical cyclone of the Atlantic hurricane season formed in the southwestern Caribbean. While Hurricane Gordon was only a Category 1, it killed 1,149 individuals, including 1,122 in Haiti.

71 / 29 breezy. Cooler Sat , perhaps the first rains since Sep 28 for many on Sunday 0.25 - 0.30. Warmer monday before cooling next Tue. Next shot at rain Thursday in what can be another 0.25.

Blues 0.50 - 1.00 showing up in the next 7 days

Highs: ACY: 83 EWR: 78 PHL: 78 JFK: 77 New Brnswck: 76 BLM: 76 TEB: 75 TTN: 75 ISP: 74 NYC: 73 LGA: 73

Records: Highs: EWR: 81 (2022) NYC: 78 (1938) LGA: 78 (2022) JFK: 80 (2022) Lows: EWR: 28 (1931) NYC: 29 (1930) LGA: 32 (1962) JFK: 25 (1962) Historical: 1940 - The Galloping Gertie bridge at Tacoma, WA, collapsed in strong winds resulting in a six million dollar loss, just four months after the grand opening of the new bridge. The winds caused the evenly sized spans of the bridge to begin to vibrate until the central one finally collapsed. From that point on bridges were constructed with spans of varying size. (David Ludlum) 1940: The Tacoma Narrows Bridge opened on July 1st, 1940, spanned the Puget Sound from Gig Harbor to Tacoma. At the time of the opening, the bridge was the third-longest suspension bridge in the world, covering nearly 6,000 feet. Before the bridge opened, high winds would cause the bridge to move vertically, giving the nickname Galloping Gertie. On this day in 1940, winds of 40 mph caused the bridge to collapse because of the physical phenomenon known as aeroelastic flutter. Click HERE for more information from Scott Sistak from KOMONews. 1951 - At 7 AM a blinding flash, a huge ball of fire, and a terrific roar occurred over parts of Texas, Oklahoma and Kansas, caused by a disintegrating meteor. Windows were broken in and near Hinton OK by the concussion. (The Weather Channel) 1951: At 7 AM, a blinding flash, a massive ball of fire, and a terrific roar occurred over parts of Texas, Oklahoma, and Kansas, caused by a disintegrating meteor. Windows were broken in and near Hinton, Oklahoma, by the concussion. 1957: A historic tornado outbreak impacted southeast Texas and southwestern Louisiana. Ten people were killed. 1986 - An early season blizzard struck the Northern Plains Region. North Dakota took the brunt of the storm with wind gusts to 70 mph, and snowfall totals ranged up to 25 inches at Devils Lake. (Storm Data) 1987 - Heavy snow fell across parts of eastern New York State overnight, with twelve inches reported at the town of Piseco, located in the Mohawk Valley. A storm in the southwestern U.S. left nine inches of snow at the Winter Park ski resort in Colorado. Smoke from forest fires reduced visibilities to less than a mile at some locations from North Carolina to Ohio and Pennsylvania. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1988 - Unseasonably warm weather continued across the state of Texas. Seven cities reported record high temperatures for the date, including Waco and Del Rio with readings of 92 degrees. McAllen was the hot spot in the nation with a high of 96 degrees. (The National Weather Summary) 1989 - Shortly after daybreak strong thunderstorms developed over a narrow, but almost stationary, east-west band across New Orleans, in southeastern Louisiana. As a result, heavy rains persisted over the same area until mid afternoon before tapering off, and triggered flash flooding across a five county area. Eight to twelve inch rains deluged the area between 9 AM and 6 PM, and totals for the 48 hour period ending at 7 AM on the 8th ranged up to 19.78 inches, between Lake Lexy and Lake Borgne. Approximately 6000 homes in the area reported water damage. The rainfall total for November of 19.81 inches at New Orleans was their highest total for any given month of the year. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 2011: A powerful storm system moving through the southern Great Plains produced tornadoes, large hail, damaging winds, and flooding across parts of Oklahoma and western north Texas on November 7-8, 2011. The system initially produced numerous thunderstorms, heavy rainfall, and flash flooding over portions of south-central Oklahoma during the late evening of November 6th and early morning of November 7th. Rainfall totals of 5-9 inches were reported across Jefferson, Carter, and Murray counties. 2012: A Nor’Easter brought several inches of snow to the Northeast. Snowfall amounts of 2 to 6 inches were typical with locally higher amounts.

71 / 49 , brief cooldown the weekend before warming up Monday.

EWR with a +23 departure today

Highs: TEB: 84 EWR: 83 New Brnswck: 82 BLM: 81 LGA: 81 ACY: 81 PHL: 80 NYC: 80 TTN: 80 JFK: 75 ISP: 73

Records: Highs: EWR: 80 (1948) NYC: 80 (1948) LGA: 75 (2022) JFK: 75 (2015) Lows: EWR: 27 (2012) NYC: 27 (1879) LGA: 30 (1951) JFK: 30 (1952) Historical: 1951 - Snow fell from the Texas panhandle to the Lower Great Lakes, leaving record totals of 12.5 inches at Saint Louis MO, and 14.1 inches at Springfield MO. Other heavier snowfall totals included 20 inches at Nevada MO, 13.5 inches at Sedan KS, 13 inches at Decature IL, and 10 inches at Alva OK. In the Saint Louis area, up to 20 inches was reported in Washington County. (5th- 6th) (David Ludlum) (The Weather Channel) 1961: Santa Ana winds in southern California downed trees, utility lines and blew 10 to 50 percent of the avocado crop from trees. Dust from the winds lowered the visibility, which led to a 16 car pileup, injuring 23 people. In addition, the winds brought the lowerest relative humidity of record to Burbank, 3 percent, and contributed to disastrous fires in the hills of the Los Angeles area. 1977: Several possible causes lead to the collapse of the Kelly Barnes Dam in Georgia to give way. The failure allowed a 40-acre lake to flood the Toccoa Falls College, killing 39 people and injuring 60 more. 1987 - High winds in the northeastern U.S., turning a recent warm spell into a distant memory, gusted to 63 mph at Rhode Island. Squalls resulting from the high winds produced five inches of snow at Marquette MI and seven inches at Rome NY. A storm in the southwestern U.S. brought heavy snow to some of the higher elevations of Arizona, Colorado and Utah. (Storm Data) (The National Weather Summary) 1988 - A powerful low pressure system over the Great Lakes Region continued to produce snow across parts of the Ohio Valley and the Great Lakes Region. Snowfall totals along the shore of Lake Superior reached 24 inches, with three feet of snow reported in the Porcupine Mountain area of Upper Michigan. Marquette MI established a November record with 17.3 inches of snow in 24 hours. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1989 - Unseasonably warm weather prevailed in the south central and southeastern U.S. Nine cities from Florida to Oklahoma and Texas reported record high temperatures for the date as readings warmed into the 80s. The high of 89 degrees at the Dallas/Fort Worth Airport in Texas equalled their record for November. (Storm Data) (The National Weather Summary) 2005 - Severe thunderstorms produced a deadly tornado near Evansville, Indiana during the early morning hours of November 6. There were 23 fatalities from the tornado, with 19 of the deaths occurring in the Eastbrook Mobile Home Park located just to the southeast of the city (Associated Press). It was Indiana's deadliest tornado since the Super Outbreak on April 3, 1974. 2005: The deadliest tornado to strike Indiana since April 3rd, 1974, occurred around 2 am. A single F3 tornado inflicted 24 fatalities, 238 injuries, and nearly 90 million dollars in damage with a path length of 41 miles. This storm moved in a northeasterly direction from just north of Smith Mills, Kentucky, to Gentryville, Indiana, and crossed the Ohio River three times. Most of the damage occurred as the tornado passed southeast of the city of Evansville, Indiana.

71 / 58 and sunny. Near / low 80s today. A bit cooler Thu with 70s. and Near 70 on Friday. Half a dry weekend before the front moves through Sunday with some rain showers perhaps more than a trace. 2 shots, with the second shot of rain coming on the 12/13. Overall warmer and drier than normal.