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SACRUS

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Everything posted by SACRUS

  1. SACRUS
    One consistent trend is this is more a Sun (PM) - Mon (PM) or even early Tue (AM) event.
  2. SACRUS
    Final 12z - solid snowstorm on 8 of 9 outputs
  3. SACRUS
    EPS Total QPF Mean
  4. SACRUS
    GGEM / GEPS
  5. SACRUS
    Good catch that was meant to be a 20 (2/12/2012) I will update
  6. SACRUS
    06z only goes to 144 00z (/20) was 1.0 (QPF) and now 0.7 - NYC
  7. SACRUS
    12z Euro toral QPF
  8. SACRUS
    12z updated
  9. SACRUS
  10. SACRUS
  11. SACRUS
  12. SACRUS
  13. SACRUS
    Updated with the Euro coming now
  14. SACRUS
    Euro AI AIFS Total QPF
  15. SACRUS
    Updated scoring
  16. SACRUS
    GEFS total QPF - Mean
  17. SACRUS
    Still more coming total (QPF)
  18. SACRUS
    Bottom-line guidance (recent assessment) Best single model for East Coast winter storms: ECMWF IFS Best long-range track sanity check: GraphCast / AIFS Worst use of AI: trusting snowfall maps or precip type Best blend: AI for where, physics for how much & what type
  19. SACRUS
    GGEM 0.8 yields 8 inch at 10:1 and over a foot with >12:1 ratios.
  20. SACRUS
    Total QPF (down from 00z but not much)
  21. SACRUS
  22. SACRUS
    12Z QPF Totals (NYC) ICON: 0.9 - 1.1 GFS: Trace GGEM: 0.6 - 0.8 GEFS: 0.5 - 0.6 UKMET: 1.00 - >1.00 Euro AI AIFS: 0.5 - 0.6 Euro: 0.7 - 0.8 GEPS: 0.9 EPS: 0.6 - 0.7
  23. SACRUS
    It'll be interesting to see the GEFS mean (12z) Op vs Ensembles
  24. SACRUS
    That was when the MRF first moved to the GFS (first winter season) and the AVN to NAM
  25. SACRUS
    The slower the progression once to Sun night / Monday the retreating high will allow the secondary low to gain latitude as the Euro shows and phasing capture. Timing is key and Euro /UK were leading there (so far)
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