SACRUS

Mesoscale Discussion 0058 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1055 AM CST Sun Jan 25 2026 Areas affected...northern Pennsylvania...southern New York...northern New Jersey...Connecticut...Rhode Island...and southern Massachusetts. Concerning...Heavy snow Valid 251655Z - 252100Z SUMMARY...Heavy snowfall is expected through the afternoon with rates up to 2 inches per hour. DISCUSSION...Widespread heavy snow is already ongoing across Pennsylvania and New Jersey this morning. This heavy snow will shift northeast through the afternoon. In addition, very heavy rates are expected to develop across far southeast New York, Connecticut, and Rhode Island. In this region, very strong 700mb frontogenesis is forecast between 18Z and 21Z amid strong isentropic ascent. In addition, amid strong warm-air advection, the transition zone from snow to sleet is moving rapidly north across eastern Pennsylvania and New Jersey (as sampled by KDOX Correlation Coefficient). Expect this transition zone to continue to advect north during the early afternoon before stalling near the Connecticut shore by mid-afternoon.

sleet line visible on the above loop pushing around i-195

12/ 8 mostly snow here w/ some IP about 7.5 on the ground on 0.38 LE. Seems like 0.75 - 1.00 more to go which might be primarily sleet here so a total of 8 - 10/11 of accumulation and by that point concrete

to Freehold / Princeton mixing with sleet.

Sleet reports to about i195 closing on

SLeet line working north on the west flank into PA slower in SNJ

Hearing its still mainly snow in those areas to about Vineyard.

There is also IP (PL) and SN mix at 5:1 or 7:1 pending on the mix which may occur in the borterline areas.

11/ 8 SN 6.5 - 7 on the ground off 0.30 LE let it snow

arent you a month into vacation or 11 months into work?

6 - 6.5 on the ground 0.27 LE 22:1

1.5 QPF and 0.25 in the bucket. Im hoping to get half before mixing or sleet here areas north can get 1.0 as all snow.

5.1 inches on 0.23 LE - 22:1 ratio more or less to this point.

Winds look to pick up around 5PM - 11 PM with 10-20MPH .with Gusts 25-35.

21 years since the blizzard of 2005 14.1 inches at NYC. This could be close at current rates.

Piling up 4.5 - 5 here now (Monroe, NJ - CNJ)

9 of 10 times its quicker in my experience. The bonus / counter has been the front end WAA overrunning with 20:1 / 25:1 ratios. Of the 1.5 QPF if we can get 0.7 or better than half on the front end the >10 inches will be common for most. NNJ >12

Mix line to about SNJ between Wild Wood and Atlantic city. At the current rate of progression it looks to mix in CNJ between 11 - 1Pm and NNJ/ EWR / NYC between 1 - 3 PM. So another solid 3 - 4 hours of 1-3 inch an hour rates gets a mojority >10 then whatever additional snow/sleet mix falls after 3pm and 10pm.

Not sure why there are two threads for this storm? Harder to follow the different convos. Why not merge the obs and storm discussion into one thread - imo. 11 / 8 SN