SACRUS

1PM Roundup BWI: 95 DCA: 94 ACY: 92 PHL: 91 NYC: 89 BLM: 89 LGA: 89 EWR: 89 JFK: 88 TTN: 88 TEB: 87 ISP: 86

Noon roundup PHL: 89 BLM: 89 NYC: 87 TTN: 87 JFK: 87 TTN: 87 LGA: 87 EWR: 87 ISP: 85 TEB: 85 New Brnswck :--

10AM Roundup ACY: 86 PHL: 85 New Brnswck: -- JFK: 84 TTN: 83 EWR: 83 ISP: 82 LGA: 82 TEB: 80 NYC: 79

81/71 - Queue The Jaimes - Its Summertime, summer time. Hazy Hot and Humid the next week and beyond. First peak of heat Sun and Mon and pending on any debris clouds, storms both days could offer the first 100's outside LGA since 2013. Otherwise plenty of 95(+) with DT in the 70s and near 80 at times (Wed-Thu) producing heat index values into the triple digits. Storms again look to be fairly consistent as ridge axis is SW of the area and we skirt the rim. Wed 850's and Dewpoints look to surge on more S/SSW flow so we will need to see if clouds interrupt 90s that day. Monday reminds me of Jul 6th early strong heat then widespread storms but perhaps more north than that day. ECM continue tp pump heights into the east with bursts of strong heat hinting the next one would be 7/25-26 before more storms. These bursts of stronger heat somewhat coincide with the Western Atlantic ridge retrograding west hooking with the Plains Ridge but its core remains south towards the SE / southern Mid Atlantic so heat comes but storms a plenty. Need to watch South / onshore flow at the coasts as well highlighted by Bluewave.. For those who like the heat enjoy as it looks to persist (overall) but so do storm chances. Perhaps a cooler day or two around 7/27-28 before more heat and have to watch if ridge shifts towards the Rockies for a period in early Aug but still warm to hot overall.

11PM Roundup EWR: 83 / 72 NYC: 78 / 71 JFK: 78 / 75 TEB: 78 / 71 LGA: 78 / 70

Sat / Sun look like one of those evenings and nights where 11 or midnight obs show 90 in LGA and upper 80s EWR/NYC/JFK.

Could Monday 7/20 be similar to Mon 7/6 with early heat into the 2 /- 3 PM time then widespread storms. Tue / Wed winds a bit more southerly but 850 temps again look to surge Wed PM (7/22) into Thu (7/23).

Strong heat / then warm / perhaps stormier with blasts of strong heat as ridge axis remains west with occasional WAR linkage.

Have to see if we get any true cooler air from any front / trough in the 7/27 - 28 period before next heat blast ejects east from plains / OV

7/17 - clouds got in the way but nice rebound after 3pm PHL: 90 New Brnswck: 89 BLM: 89 TTN: 88 ACY: 87 TEB: 87 EWR: 87 LGA: 86 NYC: 84 JFK: 81 ISP: 79

Clearing working down from NW NJ. 83/71 here now.

75/70 cloudy as the winds shift and bring the heat into the area. Should we clear out later this afternoon inland spots and some warmer spots should start their respective 90+ /heatwaves. Heat the big story the next 5 - 7 days - hazy - hot and humid. Likely no widespread records but with enough sun i would watch Sun and Mon for 100s EWR - LGA - JFK inland NE-NJ. Storms possible especially Mon. Tue PM / Wed (7/22) look to get more southerly component to winds so perhaps those upper 70 and 80 degree dewpoints those days. Beyond 7/23 - ridging is still anchored into the Mid West with the Western Atlantic Ridge pulsing west, keeping heights higher with continued war to hot and wetter / stormy chances through the end of Jul and into August.

7/16 PHL: 83 TTN: 81 LGA: 80 ACY: 79 New Brnswck: 79 NYC: 78 EWR: 78 TEB: 78 JFK: 76 BLM: 76 ISP: 75

75/62 ESE wind. Very California like the next 24 - 36 hours before the heat arrives. Low 80s today and very pleasant. Dryer the last few days should help with temps over performing on sunny days. Starting Friday and id expect temps to come up friday as flow goes more SW by the afternoon and inland areas reach 90, coastal/metro areas may be close 88/89's. 7/18 - 7/25: The hazy hot and humid weather arrives. ECM peaking 850MB temps >16c through the period, peaking Sun PM (7/19) - Wed (7/22), coupled with high dewpoints equal excessive heat warnings and temps mid -upper 90s. Only limiting factor for 100 in EWR, LGA, JFK is clouds in the hotter spots Sun/Mon. Storms possible after daytime heating Tue /Wed. Tuesday could feature more southerly flow for a time but still looks hot enough to get to 90 and continue the heatwave. Western Atlantic Ridge building west by 7/25 in the long rage offering more above normal/ steamy temps. Way out there we'll see if the ridge shifts west and we increase storms and cool down a bit towards the end of the month. Overall looking warm into August.

7/15 PHL: 89 New Brnswck: 83 TTN: 83 NYC: 82 LGA: 82 TEB: 82 EWR: 82 ACY: 81 JFK: 78 BLM: 78 ISP: 76

77/67 E winds and partly sunny as some clouds pushing inland from the east winds. Two days of onshore flow will keep temps in the low to perhaps mid 80s. I do think Thu may see temps outdo guidance with mostly sunny conditions. Queue Lovin Spoonful Hot town Summer in the City (even the park) Friday should see the beginning of a very hot period away from the coast. Pending on any clouds/storms temps will shoot to 90 in many inland spots. Coastal and metro areas may need to wait till Saturday to begin the heatwave. Very hot air mass 850MB temps >16c through D9 on most guidance with more heat coming in beyond that in way out range. Heat peaking Sun PM (7/19) through Tues (7/21) where 850b temps of 20c should translate to the surface with 95(+) heat and with enough sun some areas could push the century mark that havent eclipsed 98 / 99 since 2013. High humidity will launch dewpouints into the 70s and perhaps upper 70s towards the middle of next week. This should allow fairly consistent storm chances (ala Florida-like) tropics feel. Longer range beyond any front or brief reprise 7/25, ridge looks to rebuild into the east towards the end of July and continue hot overall opattern. Still need to watch storms and any weakness in the ridge that could lead to the persistent easterly flow. But overall Fri - next Wed looks Hazy Hot Humid.

7/14 LGA: 89 ACY: 89 JFK: 88 BLM: 88 PHL: 87 New Brnswck: 87 EWR: 87 ISP: 86 TTN: 86 TEB: 86 NYC: 85

Looks like between Sat and next Tue can offer ISP the westerly flow needed for some heat.

78/61 off a low of 66. Another sensational day out there to help dry things out for those who were soaked by Fay and strong storms. Temps today in upper 80s, perhaps a stray 90 of we have some over performers on the W / WNW flow. Next two days (Wed and Thu) very Southern California like with strong onshore flow, we will see how low it can go for daily maxes on Thu. Overall next few days look mostly dry. Queue Martha Vandellas - Heatwave Starting Friday winds should go around to a more NW'rly flow and begin a very hot period for most stations. Coastal areas will get into the heat on Sat. The period 7/18 - 7/25 should see the first widespread heat wave for the area and strong heat 95 (+) on several days between Sat (7/18) and Tue (7/22). ECM and GFS have 850 temps >16c Fri - Sat and >18C Sun - Wed, peaking Sun and Mon at 20c. Some scattered storms Sun and Tue. Beyond Wd (7/23) first transient front moves through as ridge build back into the Plains and slowly moves east to meet the Western Atlantic Ridge on / around 7/26. We'll see how it plays out and if there is any cutoff that can cause rogue ULL or onshore flow. But closest into the period now and it looks hot. Do we reach triple digits - if we do it would be Sun , Mon or Tue period this blast. Beyond here in model lala land strong ridge signal in the late July period can offer the next opportunity.

7/13 LGA: 91 EWR: 89 BLM: 89 ACY: 89 PHL: 88 JFK: 88 TEB: 87 TTN: 87 New Brnswck: 86 NYC: 86 ISP: 84

Humidity back 79/68 and partly sunny. Looks less stormy today that initially expected. Some clouds moving through as winds shift to SW. Today again with enough sun and assume storms are more scattered, we should see places outside the damp park reach 90. Tuesday (7/14) looks like a cooler version of Sunday but again temps near 90 before more onshore flow Wed - Thu. Dry / sunny and temps on mid 80s both days. Friday toss up day where if winds go around to the SW the heat is on. Starting Saturday (7/18) should see overall hot pattern beging (gfs seems too cool) and continue thru at least 7/25. Potential in the period for strong heat 95 (+) especially towards 7/20. ECm has 850s >16c for the period and peaking at >20c around next mon/tue (7/20-21) Have to watch weakness undercutting the ridge (season persistence) which looks anchored between the Plains and Mid West.

7/12 LGA: 93 EWR: 91 PHL: 91 ACY: 90 BLM: 90 JFK: 90 New Brnswck: 90 TTN: 89 TEB: 89 ISP: 87 NYC: 87

7/12 LGA: 93 EWR: 91 PHL: 91 ACY: 90 BLM: 90 JFK: 90 New Brnswck: 90 TTN: 89 TEB: 89 ISP: 87 NYC: 87

Noon Roundup Humidity dropped and DT in the low 60s / gorgeous day ACY: 88 EWR: 86 BLM: 86 PHL: 86 TTN: 85 JFK: 85 LGA: 85 New Brnswck: 85 ISP: 84 TEB: 83 NYC: --

July monthly Precip totals EWR: 6/74 TEB: 6.52 NYC: 4.02 NEw Brnswk: 3.99 LGA: 2.93 JFK: 2.89 TTN: 2.43 ISP: 1.67