SACRUS

battle of the ECM vs GFS for weekend warmth and the extent of any shot at 80s / 90s. ECM wants to continue ENE flow and limit warmth and GFS bullish as deep trough in west pushes heights and associated warmth into the area. Middle ground may be the way to go similar to past events. Dont think we can sustain any warmth more than 24-36 hours until on / around May 26. Would wager on a max of upper 70s to low 80s into the NE-NJ/NYC for a peak this weekend for short peroid..

1.35 in the bucket and 48F. 60 hours to go

Potential to be tracking our first shot at 90s last half of May. While indices remain unfavorable models continue to hint at ridging expanding into MS/OV and perhaps enough to push the warmth into the NE the end of May as thereis expected to be constant troughs heading into the WC. This is post next weekend (5/18-20) 24-36 hour spike and more towards the 5/26 and beyond period. We'll see but the pendulum may start to weigh warmer then finally open up the chance for real heat in June when indices trend more favorable.

2019 Predictions Overall warm summer and continued wet. Peak of the heat book ends June and Aug-Sep. # 90(+) range NYC: 19- 22 LGA: 28- 31 EWR: 30 -33 TTN: 23- 25 PHL: 36-39 100+ LGA, EWR, : 1-2 (AUg)

Clouds building in quickly from the south but a gorgeous spring day . Up to 71 here now 68 and overcast. 72 hours of muck and ugliness ahead as the pendulum swings back cold.

Not sure of widespread 90s but there are hints of ridging expanding out form the GL/OV. ECM less enthused than the GFS. We will see but warmer temps Above Normal May 22- 31 overall wouldnt surprise me.

Cleared out nicely from lingering clouds from last night/ this morning.

Thru 10 and it looks like more of the same the next 10, final 9/10 days should see warmer times with ridging building over the GL/OV into the NE BOS: -1.7 NYC: +0.0 LGA: -2.9 JFK: - 0.9 EWR: +0.7 TTN: +2.0 PHL: +2.7 ACY: +3.2 DOV: +5.5 BWI: +7.1 DCA: +6.8 IAD: +7.2

Up to 80 here as clouds cleared. And the pendulum swings back warm for a few hours . Hints at some warming end of the last 9 days of May.

Head to Iceland for warmth next week

0.69 in the bucket

Made it up to 72 with partly sunny skies from 1:30 - 4:00 now mostly cloudy agin and down to 69

Perhaps some breaks of sun soon working in from the N-W

We'll get into that warmth Tuesday, but any sustained warmth is seemingly delayed to the second half of May at the soonest.

Those on the south side of the front are reaping the warmth of the ridge first 3 days of May. LGA: -4.7 JFK: -1.9 NYC: -1.7 EWR: -1.6 TTN: +1.1 PHL: +2.3 ACY: +4.9 BWI: +7.5 DCA : +8.1 IAD: +8.6

Maybe two partly to mostly sunny days Mon/Tue and the next shot at 80s on tues but then back to the muck/clouds Wed and beyond. D 9-10 (5/14-15) of ECM dropping trough into the NE.

certainly much improves as you travel southwest by 25 mile clicks the last 2 weeks especially. I do think Saturday if enough sun makes it through could be similar to Thursday with temps well into the 70s and even some 80s SW. But clouds the caveat.

EWR Normal (avg) High/Low 5/3: 68/49 (59) 5/4: 69 50 (59) 5/5: 69 50 (59) 5/6: 69 50 (60) 5/7: 69 51 (60) 5/8: 70 51 (60) 5/9: 70 51 (61) 5/10: 70 51 (61) Forecast; 5/3: 61/55 5/4: 71/55 5/5: 62/51 5/6: 71/54 5/7: 74/58 5/8: 73/57 5/9: 71/60 5/10: 74/59

Some breaks on the clouds

We'll see how things evolve but hope we dont waste the next spike in heights on/around May 8-10 or so where ridge builds into the east on most guidance.

strong Ridging into the east D 7-10

Showers working their way in from the east

Not sure if the image is live or cacahed but even LI should get into the clearing.