SACRUS

9AM Roundup LGA: 85/69 ACY: 84/75 EWR: 83/73 TEB: 83/71 ISP: 82/75 JFK: 82/74 New Brnswck: 82/75 PHL: 80/76 BLM: 80/79 NYC: 80/73 TTN: 80/76

Tropics this morning. 83/76 here feels like Jamaica. The heat is on and temps will challenge this past Mon-Tue as guidance continues to forecast a push of 850MB temps 22-23C Monday PM through Tue PM. That should translate into many 97- 101s under mostly sunny conditions. Clouds and recent heavy rains the only factors that may halt any triple digits in the hot spots NE/C-NJ / LGA metro. Front triggers some widespread storms - looking at timing later TUesday. Well have to see what debirs clouds and storms linger into Wed which may cause a break in the 90s, otherwise Wed should get into the 90s. Thu (7/30) - Sat(Aug 1) now looking much warmer on guidance and should see temps at or above 90 for much the area. Warm and wet. Beyond there the tropics will need to be watched. As WAR is nearby and retrograding west in the next week to 10 days. This should keep heights higher along the east coast with nearby trough into the GL/OV is the ridge moves back towards the Rockies for a period. We'll see if it trends less cool but guidance has D8- 10 cooldown to near or below normal. 8/2-4/ . By the second week of August the ridge is on the move east again into the Plains and Midwest and strong heat looks to again eject east in that time-frame. Timing the WAR expansion could again trigger a strong heat spike in that 8/6 - 8/14 time-frame.

A majority of Today's 12z guidance has a tropical storm near the SE/Carolinas around Aug 3rd. Way out there but with the WAR building west - how west will determine if any tropical system is an EC or FL/GOM track.

Adding a few ISP: +3.2 TEB: +3.1 BLM: +3.7 TTN: +3.4 PHL: +3.3

7/25 LGA: 92 TEB: 90 EWR: 90 New Brnswck: 89 PHL: 89 BLM: 89 TTN: 88 NYC: 88 ISP: 86 ACY: 86 JFK: 85

7/25 LGA: 92 TEB: 90 EWR: 90 New Brnswck: 89 PHL: 89 BLM: 89 TTN: 88 NYC: 88 ISP: 86 ACY: 86 JFK: 85

3PM Roundup LGA: 91 New Brnswck: 89 BLM: 88 EWR: 88 PHL: 88 TEB: 87 TTN: 86 NYC: 86 ISP: 85 ACY: 85 JFK: 84

2PM Roundup LGA: 89 BLM: 88 New Brnswck: 88 NYC: 87 TEB: 87 EWR: 87 ACY: 86 PHL: 86 TTN: 85 JFK: 84 ISP: 84

1PM Roundup LGA: 88 EWR: 87 TEB: 87 BLM: 87 New Brnswck: 86 ISP: 85 ACY: 85 JFK: 85 BYC: 85 PHL: 84 TTN: 83

Guidance had certainly moderated in that Jul 30 - Aug 1/2nd period from showing below normal temps to near normal now. Looks to get quite humid early Aug. Only below normal days will likely be attributed to conditions like yesterday cloudy/showers most of the day for the next 10 days / 2 weeks.

S/SSW flow may keep EWR and some coastal spots from hitting 90. We'll is we can get more a SW wind later this afternoon.

Noon Roundup: LGA: 86 EWR: 85 NYC: 85 New Brnswck: 85 TEB: 85 ACY: 85 ISP: 84 BLM: 84 JFK: 83 PHL: 83 TTN: 81

11AM Roundup LGA: 86 EWR: 85 ISP: 83 BLM: 83 TEB: 83 New Brnswck: 83 ACY: 83 NYC: 82 PHL: 82 JFK: 81 TTN: 78

This coming week's heat likely the hottest along with this past week but I've learned never to say it cant happen. In these warm / hot years all it takes sometimes is a ridge in the right spot. Agree August theme looks warm and wet (humid) and may see Tropical tracking most of the month. That ridge building back from the Atlantic and the Rockies ridge returning eat towards the Midwest and Ohio valley seems to be the tendency so id watch August 6 - 14 more the next sustained heat spike.

80/72 S/SW wind. Low clouds burning off and today starts the next surge of heat which briefly ended Friday. Onshore component to winds may keep coastal areas from 90 today. Sun - Wed widespread strong heat peaking Mon -PM Tue with 850MB temps pegged at 22C which with enough sun should translate to the upper 90s with EWR/LGA a shot at 100. 850s actually look highest on Tue but storms timing could limit max heating and Mon is the better bet for the hotter day right now. Recent deluge may prohibit 100 but dont think we are done with strong heat so perhaps not the last chance or hottest air of the season yet. By Tue and Wed heights are dropping ahead of a front so numerous storms are likely later Tue and perhaps Wed morning which would make Wednesday (7/29) the tossup day for 90s. Beyond there drier cooler near normal Thu (7/30) and Fri (7/31). August looking to begin warm / humid and likely wetter than normal. US ridge shifts west to the Rockies to open the month with W. Atl Ridge shifting south with some weaknesses into the Mid West. W.AR does looks to migrate west with the Rockies ridge pushing into the plains again by the second week of August. Overall warm with no prolonged / strong heat the first week, which should feature chances of 90s. Hotter, stronger more sustained period looks possible by Aug 6th. TIme will tell as tropics ramp up and WAR steering storms towards the US..

7/24 - coolest since two weeks 7/10 Fay. PHL: 86 ACY: 84 TEB: 81 BLM: 80 TTN: 80 EWR: 80 LGA: 80 NYC: 79 JFK: 79 New Brnswk: 78 ISP: 78

Clouds thinning into EPA and looks like we may get some sun this afternoon.

2.56 inches last night here in CNJ. Other areas in Monmouth. Middlesex with 3 - 4 inches. EWR getting clocked now.

77/76. Nearly 2 1/2 inches of rain overnight with persistent and prolonged thunderstorms. Like yesterday clouds should dissipate in the afternoon but unlike yesterday temps should stay below 90 with additional showers and storms through the PM. Sat we dry things out and warm it back up. Inland areas not impacted by coastal seabreeze will close in and resume the next stretch of 90s. Sun - Tue strong heat peaking MOn and Tue with 850MB temps near 22C which should translate to upper 90s and some stray triple digits. Have to watch storms Tue and stronger storms on Wed as front moves through and should bring temps back towards normal to close out July Thu (7/30) - Fri (7/31) Warm and wet opening to August. Western Atl Ridge nearby and retrogrades west into the Southeast at times and Rockies/Plains ridge ejecting heat at times that migrate east into the MW/GL and east. Humid, warm and at times hot with plenty of storms chances. Likely see 1 to 2 day surges of heat with plenty of storms and need to watch tropical activity as well. Can see a similar pattern evolve to what we have seen the last 10 days towards the second week of August with more ridging into the MW/OV and WAR nearby potentially hooking really raising heights.

Tropics ramping up. WAR looks to pulse / retrograde west at times with Rockies/Plains ridge occasionally pushing east. August looks wet and warm and maybe Tropics EC and GOM.

We'll see if its possible to eeak out some 90s tomorrow. Think it'll be tougher with clouds again / showers and 850 temps closer to 16C rather 18c like today. Saturday think is onshoreish for a period before the flow whips around. Sun - Tue very hot Wed toss up before front/storms.

7/23 LGA: 92 EWR: 91 PHL: 91 ACY: 91 TEB: 90 TTN: 89 New Brnswk: 89 NYC: 86 BLM: 88 JFK: 85 ISP: 85

7/23 LGA: 92 EWR: 91 PHL: 91 ACY: 91 TEB: 90 TTN: 89 New Brnswk: 89 NYC: 86 BLM: 88 JFK: 85 ISP: 85

Clouds dissipating now, lets see how temps respond.

That front coming next week Wed (ish) 7/29 could be some big widespread severe potential as it looks now. Could be interesting tracking near record heat to some big time storms. A real summer weather enthusiasts type of week. Perhaps even add some tropical tracking at some point next week for the Gulf.