SACRUS

The heat is on for the next 48 - 52 hours or so. EWR and some spots in NE-NJ/CNJ started the seasons first heatwave Wed. Today upper 80s / low 90s, even the park could break 90 today. Friday peak heat low/mid 90s with some hot spots perhaps touching 97/98. Timing of the front has moved up on most guidance (00z/06z GFS, OOZ Canadian, NAM) arriving early Sat and through the day, setting up for a nice/warm Sunday, while the Euro (00z/06z) are slower with front and subsequent storms Sat PM into Sunday morning. Id go with the quicker solution - saturday mostly cloudy and storms (potential heavy) and mch improved Sunday and a very warm and dry Fourth of July.

6/29 EWR: 90 PHL: 88 LGA: 86 New Brnswck: 86 ACY: 86 TEB: 86 TTN: 85 NYC: 84 BLM: 84 JFK: 83 ISP: 81

Noonish roundup EWR: 84 NYC: 82 ACY: 82 PHL: 82 New Brnswck: 82 BLM: 81 TEB: 81 JFK: 80 TTN: 80 ISP: 79 LGA: 79

No major changes on the overnight 00z or early morning 06z forecasts. Thu (6/30) - Fri (7/1): Sunny hot low - mid (some upper 90s on Friday) Sat (7/2): Starts off hot, then front comes through in the late afternoon / evening. Storms through the overnight. Sun (7/3); looks much similar to this past Monday, but should clear out by the afternoon with scattered storms. Fourth of July: Sunny, warm, isolated early morning storm. Upper 80s / low 90s.

Down to 55 overnight and back up to 72. On the way for a nice stretch of summer weather and the seasons first hat trick (heatwave) for many as height rise and ridge builds over the east coast 6/29 - 7/2). Another gorgeous day dry , sunny and warm and while most places will be capped below 90, in the upper 80s, there is an outside chance of a 90 in the warm spots to start the mini heatwave. By tomorrow Thu (6/30)many spots will reach 90, maybe even the park. Heat peaks on Friday (7/1) with 850 temps pushing near 20C (>18c) and mostly sunny skies. Could challenge some records (see above). Lots of mid / upper 90s. Saturday starts hot and pending on storms should reach low 90s, if front is delayed more mid 90s. Storms come through satruday (7/2) ( night (could be a nice soking for the vegetables/tomatoes) and into Sunday (7/3). Looks like we could clear out by the late afternoon (3PM). The fourth of July ridge rebuilds with a push near 90, great day on tap.

6/28 July 4th weekend Fri: Sunny mid / upper 90s Sat: Partly cloudy upper 80s/low 90s. Clouds storms arrive in the later afternoon/evening. Sun: Cloudy early with storms . Front looks to clear the area in the afternoon, so could see clearing in the second half of the afternoon 3pm on onwards. low 80s Mon July 4th: Looks mainly dry and sunny , warm upper 80s / low 90s.

Sunday could be the next one, pending on when storms clear out.

Outside chance looking to have potential (EWR, LGA) ?? Record highs Jul 1 EWR: 100 (1963) LGA: 97 (2018) JFK: 102 (1963) NYC: 100 (1901. 1963)

Outside chance looking to have potential (EWR, LGA) ?? Record highs Jul 1 EWR: 100 (1963) LGA: 97 (2018) JFK: 102 (1963) NYC: 100 (1901. 1963)

6/28 00z Euro / 06 GFS. Heat starts Thu (6/30) strong heat by Fri (7/1) and Sat (7/2). Front comes through Saturday evening into Sunday. Sunday a toss up day, depending on how long the front lingers but it looks similar to yesterday a bit quicker, so clearing would be mid afternoon rather than the evening. 4th of July looking great warm and mainly dry area wide, mid - upper 80s, perhaps a stray 90. Tue the 5th looks more the same sunny and warm upper 80s / low 90s.

Great day shaping up, sunny, dry and low 80s. Warming it by Wed withan outside chance the warmer spots can touch 90, otherwise the season's first heatwave starts Thu (7/1) - Sat (7/2). 850 temps >18c near 20C Fri (7/1) and Sat (7/2) ahead of the front. Front timing continues to adjust but overall looking like Saturday late pm through the evening and into Sunday. Sunday tossup day as to how long it takes to clear and dry out. It looks quite similar to yesterday but timing is about six hours sooner, which should see clearing in the mid - late afternoon. the 4th of July looks mainly dry, perhaps popup shower (isolated) other wise warm mid/upper 80s, perhaps a stray 90. Jul 5 and beyond. Looks overall warm, but could see storms fire 7/9th way out there.

End of the week / weekend (Fourth of July) 6/27 12 Euro / 18z GFS Honing in on the timing of the front and any lingering showers Sunday will be key. But Heat looks to kick in Thu (6/30) peak Fri (7/1) and Sat (7/2) ahead of the front. Storms/front Sat evening into Sunday. Clearing Sunday pm / cooler - near normal. The fourth looks mainly dry and warm : mid - upper 80s, stray shot at 90 in the hot spots. Could be popup showers overnight into Tue the 6th before a warm Tue. Overall, Fri-Sat / Mon the best days Sat evening / Sunday cloud / storms. Sunday depends on timing of the front could be similar to today 6 hours advanced meaning it could clear by 3pm instead of 8/9 like this evening.

6/27 12 Euro / 18z GFS Honing in on the timing of the front and any lingering showers Sunday will be key. But Heat looks to kick in Thu (6/30) peak Fri (7/1) and Sat (7/2) ahead of the front. Storms/front Sat evening into Sunday. clearing Sunday pm - cooler - near normal. The fourth looks mainly dry and warm mid - upper 80s, stray shot at 90 in the hot spots. Could be popup shower. Overall, Fri-Sat / Mon the best days Sat evening / Sunday cloud / storms. Sunday depends on timing of the front could be similar to today 6 hours advanced meaning it could clear by 3pm

6/27 00Z Euro / 06z GFS Heatwave commences Thu (6/30) to close June and open the long weekend. 850s >16c by Thu (6/30), then >18c Fri (7/1) and Sat (7/2) ahead of the cold front. Perhaps a mid 90s and some upper 90s in the warm spots Fri and Sat, pending on clouds arrival. The front comes through Sat evening and into Sunday (7/3) morning. Could be some decent rains in the storms as it looks now, we shall see how it goes. Should see clearing out Sunday and cooler down towards normal. 4th looks mainly dry and warm (near normal). Wouldnt rule out a spotty showere here and there. By Tue (7/5) it looks like we could see the warm spots grab 90 or near 90 and continue Wed (7/6) and Thu (7/7). A bit out there but it looks like the Florida kinda setup warm-hot but possible shower/pop storms type of pattern the middle of next week.

Front moving through, some scattered storms/showers but not much in the way of rain totals outside some isolated areas, with heavier widespread storms north into NYC and NEw England. Down towards normal and a little below after the front later tonight (6/27), Tue (6/28) and before warmup starts Wed (6/29). Most spots will be just shy of the 90 mark but perhaps a quick start for the hotter spots if no clouds or storms as warm push comes through. For those that didnt start the heat , the hat trick and seasons first heatwave commences Thu (6/30) to close June and open the long weekend. 850s >16c by Thu (6/30), then >18c Fri (7/1) and Sat (7/2) ahead of the cold front. Perhaps a mid 90s and some upper 90s in the warm spots Fri and Sat, pending on clouds arrival. The front comes through Sat evening and into Sunday (7/3) morning. Could be some decent rains in the storms as it looks now, we shall see how it goes. Should see clearing out Sunday and cooler down towards normal. 4th looks mainly dry and warm (near normal). Wouldnt rule out a spotty showere here and there. By Tue (7/5) it looks like we could see the warm spots grab 90 or near 90 and continue Wed (7/6) and Thu (7/7). A bit out there but it looks like the Florida kinda setup warm-hot but possible shower/pop storms type of pattern the middle of next week.

6/26 12Z: Euro: continues with a hot Thu (6/30) - Sat (7/2) with front passing late evening and into Sun (7/3) Front clears through, Euro still shows some spotty showers/tstorms on the Fourth but it looks mainly dry as of today. GFS: continues with Heat Thu - Sat PM with quicker passage of the front Sat evening into Sun Am. Clear by Sunday evening and a dry / warm fourth of July. We'll see how we go it is a matter of the front and how quickly and offshore it can get.

6/26 EWR: 94 LGA: 91 PHL: 91 TEB: 90 BLM: 90 New Brnswck: 90 NYC: 89 TTN: 88 ISP: 87 ACY: 87 JFK: 84

6/26 EWR: 94 LGA: 91 PHL: 91 TEB: 90 BLM: 90 New Brnswck: 90 NYC: 89 TTN: 88 ISP: 87 ACY: 87 JFK: 84

2PM Roundup EWR: 93 LGA: 91 NYC: 89 TEB: 89 PHL: 89 New Brnswck: 88 ACY: 87 TTN: 86 ISP: 84 JFK: 84

6/26 00z EURO : Thu (6/30) June closes hot with the start of the seasons first heat wave/ hat trick, for most, especially in the heat locations. Fri (7/1) and Sat (7/2) heat peaks we see >18c 850s perhaps near 20C before a cold front comes through Saturday overnight (7/2) into Sunday (7/3). Models have a kinder, drier and sunnier July 4th now, with 80s and great weather. Sunday (7/3) would be the stormy not so beachy day. GFS similar theme moves the front through slowly on Sunday (7/3) and clear out for a gorgeous July 4th.

Show how strong that heat from the Plains/Great Lakes, Ohio Valley and central Gulf was. Only the strong blocking buffeted the sustained version of that into the region. Great stats as always BW. The record heat in Europe and Gulf coast that hit this year had also tied or beat records in years where we were very cool /wet in June. We'll see where July takes us. Stormy or more dry and brief heat interludes or more sustained pieces coming east.

Another hot one on tap with more low / mid 90s perhaps one of the hotter spots in Central / Northeast NJ can top 97. Front arrives overnight into Mon (6/27). We'll see how much we can score from showers and storms, it had looked like a possible soaker earlier. Beyond there, cooler Tuesday (6/28) and warming 6/29 (likely uppers 80s shy of 90 but outside chance of one of the hotter spots can start a 90 stretch). Thu (6/30) June closes hot with the start of the seasons first heat wave/ hat trick, for most, especially in the heat locations. Fri (7/1) and Sat (7/2) heat peaks we see >18c 850s perhaps near 20C before a cold front comes through Saturday overnight (7/2) into Sunday (7/3). Models have a kinder, drier and sunnier July 4th now, with 80s and great weather. Beyond that (7/5)- guidance a bit hazy as to weather (whether) the Rockies ridge build and sends trough and frequent storms into the north east or the flow and heights are a bit flatter and we are warm with storm chances and pieces of heat come east by 7/6-7/8. Time will tell. Hot in the city today.

4th Of July: 12Z Euro has front coming through Sat (7/2) night into Sun (7/3) after heat Thu (6/30) - Sat (7/2). Euro now with storms on the 4th as well with front slow to pass through. WIll see how it progresses. 18Z GFS much drier for the fourth with the brunt of the storms Sat evening / Sun morning.

6/25 EWR: 96 New Brnswck: 92 TEB: 91 PHL: 91 NYC: 90 ACY: 90 LGA: 90 ISP: 89 TTN: 89 BLM: 89 JFK: 88