SACRUS

Trying to go back and see of Mays with such a persistent onshore flow. Even 2008 which i am liking this period and how it ended to, was more by way of deep trough into the east . You are right there isnt any lack of ridging in the east since May 8th. with constant troughs moving into the west coast too. Just a matter of time before the warmth spreads in from Canada :-) . Thu/ Fri look steamy with SSW flow ahead of the front. Clouds will hinder any chance those days of a stray 90 which was looking possible a few days ago.

Dow to 54 last night. Low level clouds will be slow to erode over the next 2 - 4 hours.. NE flow continues. Clouds will muddy up any temps higher than the low 80s Thu and Fri. Front arrives Fri PM / Sat keeping things a bit cooler than normal 6/1 - 6/4 . Heights and temps look to rebound 6/5 we'll see how things evolve. image stays cached on prior day,-

Down to 51 last night. 0.59 in the bucket. Cool and a bit breezy NE wind. Clouds generally moving NE to SW with some breaks over LI and N-NJ so far.

Areas with sun out in southern NJ in the mid 70s. Looks possible to clear a bit this afternoon as this batch of rain rotates through ahead of the onshore flow. Already clearing to i-195.

Very tropical out there today. Clouds and rain rotating through with sun out in S-NJ now. 66/65 here. About 0.37 in the bucket

Up to 76 here remaining partly cloudy for a bit longer.

Getting past the ULL Fri / Sat, the rest of the memorial day weekend looks much like the past week onshore flow / Calinfornia style weather. Temps warming Tue/Wed with first shot of 90s Thu-Sat (5/28 - 5/30) in the warmer spots - expecting temps to beat current guidance.. Cold front arrives Sat/Sun next weekend with cooler start to June 5/31 - 6/4 as ridge builds into the Plains/ GL. Gotta watch hung / slow frontal passage 5/31 - 6/2. Way out there there but 6/5 still troughing pushing into the WC, with ridge orientation needing to improve to get the sustained warmth into the east. Will be interesting to see how it progresses and if the current dry is ended with an abrupt soaker a few days.

Cloud deck creeping north into C-NJ with showers into DE/SNJ

Warmer that I would have thought Location NWS ID Description Water Temperature Latitude Longitude Absecon ASCN4 Absecon COOP 55 39.4231 -74.5000 Absecon ABSN4 Absecon Ck. at Absecon 62 39.4303 -74.5206 Allenwood ALLN4 Manasquan R. nr. Allenwood 57 40.1467 -74.1222 Atlantic City ATLN4 Atlantic City 58 39.3781 -74.4228 Barnegat Light BGLN4 Barnegat Light 54 39.7631 -74.1106 Belmar BLMN4 Belmar ALERTS 56 40.1800 -74.0400 Belvidere BVDN4 Belvidere-Del Rvr 59 40.8264 -75.0825 Bivalve BVVN4 Bivalve ALERTS 58 39.2300 -75.0400 Canoe Brook DCP CHMN4 Canoe Brook DCP 60 40.7400 -74.3500 Cape May Harbor CAPN4 Cape May Harbor ALERT 55 38.9500 -74.8200 Cherry Hill CHRN4 S. Br. Pennsauken Cr. 57 39.9417 -75.0011 Extonville EXTN4 Crosswicks Cr. at Extonville 59 40.1372 -74.6000 Flatbrookville FLAN4 Flat Brook near Flatbrookville 58 41.1061 -74.9525 Frenchtown FREN4 Delaware River at Frenchtown 61 40.5261 -75.0650 Griggstown GTNN4 Millstone R. at Griggstown 64 40.4400 -74.6175 Haddonfield HDDN4 Haddonfield 59 39.9031 -75.0214 Keansburg KSBN4 Keansburg - Raritan Bay 56 40.4444 -74.1478 Kenilworth KENN4 Rahway River near Kenilworth 58 40.6731 -74.3133 Manasquan MSNN4 Watson C. at Manasquan 56 40.1117 -74.0442 Manville MNVN4 Manville 62 40.5556 -74.5828 Maplewood USGS MPLN4 E. Branch Rahway River 55 40.7350 -74.2706 Margate City MGTN4 Margate City Coop. 55 39.3300 -74.5000 Medford MEDN4 SW Br. Rancocas Ck. at Medford 62 39.8953 -74.8236 Millburn EBRN4 E. Branch Rahway River 56 40.7242 -74.3058 Millburn WBRN4 W. Branch Rahway River 60 40.7308 -74.3072 Mount Holly - Iron Work Park IWPN4 N. Br. Rancocas Cr. 60 39.9931 -74.7814 Newark DCP NWKN4 Passaic River - Newark (Tidal) 56 40.7131 -74.1231 New Lisbon NLBN4 New Lisbon-Greenwood Branch 55 39.9561 -74.6278 New Lisbon NLBN4 New Lisbon-Greenwood Branch 58 39.9561 -74.6278 Oak Ridge USGS ORGN4 Pequannock R. at Oak Ridge 59 41.0397 -74.5017 Pemberton PEBN4 Pemberton 61 39.9700 -74.6844 Pequest PQTN4 Pequest River at Pequest 54 40.8306 -74.9786 Pompton POMN4 Ramapo R-Dawes Hwy 66 40.9856 -74.2794 Pompton Lakes PPTN4 Pompton Lakes 65 40.9919 -74.2800 Pompton Lakes Above PLUN4 Pompton Lakes lake elevation 65 40.9925 -74.2789 Pompton Lakes-Lakeside Ave PMPN4 Ramapo R at Lakeside Ave. 64 41.0072 -74.2744 Port Mercer(Del/Rtn canal) DRCN4 Delaware and Raritan Canal 63 40.3044 -74.6853 Rahway RBRN4 Rahway - Robsinsons Branch 56 40.6056 -74.2992 Riegelsville RGLN4 Delaware R. at Riegelsville 62 40.5947 -75.1897 Sea Bright SBIN4 Sea Bright ALERTS 54 40.3700 -73.9800 Sea Isle City SICN4 Sea Isle City-Ludlam Thorofare 54 39.1578 -74.6981 Singac SIGN4 64 40.8944 -74.2661 South Dennis SDNN4 South Dennis ALERTS 55 39.1600 -74.8300 Spruce Run Res. USGS SRRN4 Spruce Run Reservoir HP-TW 58 40.6436 -74.9236 Stafford Forge STFN4 Westecunk Cr at Stafford Forge 59 39.6667 -74.3203 Stone Harbor SHBN4 Stone Harbor ALERTS 55 39.0600 -74.7700 Swedesboro SWBN4 Swedesboro - Baccoon Creek 57 39.7411 -75.2592 Trenton TTWN4 Trenton-Del R 62 40.2217 -74.7783 Tuckerton TKTN4 Tuckerton ALERT 53 39.5000 -74.3250 Tuckerton TIDE JCTN4 Jacques Cousteau Reserve Tide 55 39.5081 -74.3383 Vincentown VNCN4 Vincentown - S.Br.Rancocas Cr. 59 39.9394 -74.7639 Waretown WATN4 Waretown ALERTS 58 39.7900 -74.1800 Washington Xing DCP WASN4 Washington Crossing 62 40.2950 -74.8681 Whitesbog 4S MCDN4 McDonalds Br. in Lebanon SF 53 39.8850 -74.5053

Down to 37 here last night. More heat than AC through the first 3 weeks of the month - not even close.

You can see how Friday and most of Saturday could be cloudy as this cut off moves moves through

Queue Albert Hammond - It never rains in southern California San Diego or is it Laguna Beach style weather continues. Onshore flow and temps in the upper 60s with no rain. ULL passes through Fri PM and Saturday with some unsettled showers and storms possible. Otherwise more of the same Sunday and Memorial Day perhaps a tinge warmer. The delayed warmth should get to most of the area on/around 5/28 with a warmer last weekend of the month shaping up on guidance. First shot of 90s, watch those 80s get higher / enhacned by recent dryness 5/28 - 5/30. Beyond there, longer range ECM would rebuild the ridge in the east in a more favorable location for a SW / W flow to bring some heat in early June while the GFS with cutoff city - time will tell. Will this be the 2008 style early June strong heat surge?

Not referring to th summer overall but rather the strong heat in early June that followed the cool may. Something like that is in the cards especially should it remain dryer than normal..

Interesting mix there with subsequent summers - the very hot 66, warm 78 and cool 67, 97 and normal 68, not sure of 1940.

California weather ensues this week. Breezy but nice out with partly sunny skies in the mid - upper 60s today. Onshore flow wont let go the next week but keeping the ULL well south and west till Fri PM / Sat when first shot at rain before more dry days look likely. I Still think its a matter of delayed not denied as we move into a period of warmth with a potential 2008 style hot period. First 90s on/around 5/28. Not sure if thats the change to warmer but do see tendency for WC troughing and ridging east of HI to open June.

Thank Unc. I meant to write 1990. 1992 was Mt pinatubo effect.

At EWR most recent examples lead to a cooler/wetter summer. I do need to check 1991. Not sure if we follow that trend yet. Wetter likely a good bet overall again. 2003: April: -3.1 May: -3.9 Jun: -3.2 Jul: -0.3 Aug: +1.8 1997: Super Nino April: -2.1 May: -3.6 Jun: -1.4 Jul : -05 Aug: -2.2 Sep : -1.4 1992: April: -2.7 May: -1.3 Jun: +0.2 Jul: -0.6 Aug: -0.8

Up to a pleasant 65 with strong sun.But Not sure if this will be the current loop or cached but clouds slowly encroaching now

Made it to 79 yesterday a nice change from the week prior with snow showers and low 40s. Another beauty out there today. Clouds holding off west of the region wit onshore flow building. Currently 61 with a NNE wind now. Still wouldnt completely write off all meaningful rain yet this week but model trends are dryer as TS Arthur has less impacts Mon/Tue. Cut off is pushed way south and west towards TN/VA area through Thu before lifting back out Fri and Sat. Think the warmup is delayed not denied as we get to Memorial Day and the following week for first shot at 90s. We'll see how it trends. I think a 2008 style switch to a very hot period is still in the cards.

Probably a compromise between the now heavy QPF GFS and Euro which is now just west of the area with the heavy rains. Long duration cut off ULL Mon - Fri/Sat next week. Still much uncertainty of timing and positions but likely see 3 or 4 of the 5 days mainly cloudy with 1 or 2 days very wet and a sneaky partly cloudy nice day. Beyond there as we move into Memorial Day weekend we should see the ridge rebuild as the ULL moves out with warming temps and our first shot at some heat/ 90s into the Memorial day holiday and subsequent week 5/25. 68 degrees and clearing on our way to a third very nice day.

5/15 Highs ACY: 86 EWR: 86 LGA: 86 BLM: 86 New Bnswk: 85 PHL: 85 NYC: 84 NYC: 84 TTN: 83 ISP: 79 JFK: 78

It'll be interesting to track the ULL next week with the TS off the coast. Mid Atlantic is a good bet for the heaviest but we'e not far off. Wouldnt surprise me to sneak in a nice day (maybe Wed). Looks like the ridging finally establishes itself on/around 5/23 in time for a warm Memorial Day as it looks now.

Should get the rest of the spotty rain to pass through before noon and clear things up for the warmest day of the year so far for many along with the first 80s for some places who missed it on My 3rd. 5/17 - 5/22 very unsettled with cutoff meandering along in the east. Perhaps sneaking in a nice day. Summer looks to arrive in time for Memorial day weekend with perhaps some consecutive warm to hot days and the seasons first 90s.

Another beauty out there today building on Wednesday's great weather. Brief taste of summer Fri and some of Saturday before ocean flow and cutoff spoil an otherwise strong ridging pattern through Fri 5/22. Do think first shot of 90s isnt fa behind the ULL lifting out of the area in the 5/24-5/27 timeframe.

Dont think we are too far from our first 90s of the season / near memorial day weekend. 2020 projections Hotter / wetter version of 2008. Bookend hottest temps of summer fist half of June and early/mid August, Jul longest stretch of heat.. Possible century mark heat in Aug. Thinking near normal to wetter overall. If things go to one way would argue more chance of warmth underscoring temps 90 degree (+) days PHL: 30 - 33 EWR: 31 - 34 NYC: 17 - 20 LGA: 27 - 30 New Bnswk: 26 - 29