SACRUS

11AM ROundup; ACY: 88 LGA: 86 EWR: 86 New Brnswck: 85 ISP: 85 NYC: 84 PHL: 83 TEB: 83 BLM: 82 JFK: 82 TTN: 82

Probably another hour or two of mostly sunny conditions before more clouds develop and move in. 10Am Roundup LGA: 84 EWR: 84 ACY: 83 New Brnswck: 83 ISP: 82 TEB: 82 JFK: 81 PHL: 81 NYC: 81 TTN: 80 BLM: 79

Already 81 / 69 here. Looking sunny for a while. Should get into the low 90s today for many spots with storms later. Hope to get some much needed rains. Mon and Tue more of the same with temps near 90 assuming more sunshine. Tue - Thu cut off over New England keep the flow out of the N and chances for unsettled weather each of the three days. Beyond there the ULL is moving off New England by Friday and things heat up for the Fourth of July weekend. Another weakness pushes into the TN valley which may cause some onshore winds Mon (7/6) mainly on the coast. Overall hot pattern the week of 7/5 with mainly scattered storms as things are looking. ECM is building another very strong ridge into the GL by the 12th but that is way out there. LEts see if the tendency this season is relenting and the 7/5 week sees the first widespread heatwave potential.

Dewpoints in the low 70s for much of the area. May provide lows that dont move much and pave the way for strong runway and temp launch tomorrow. May fuel evening storms.

Holiday weekend looking warm and relatively rain free aside from stray showers. Fri (the 3rd) and Saturday in the park for the 4th of July look to be the hotter days before Sunday where winds may go more NE. Will need to watch the progression of the ULL to see if it does move out by Fri.

6/27: ACY: 91 PHL: 89 TTN: 88 (0.27) BLM: 88 (0.28) EWR: 86 (0.10) LGA: 85 (0.25) New Brnswck: 84 (0.09) TEB: 81 (0.14) ISP: 80 (0.46) JFK: 80 (0.24) NYC: 80 (0.09)

70/66 here as humidity has increased quite a bit. Line of light showers coming through and wall to wall clouds for the most part back to Harrisburg. That should get in the way of any 90s or any stronger heat that was possible. If we get enough breaks in clouds we'll see if anyone can squeak in a 90 but doubtful. Looks less cloudy tomorrow ahead of any scattered storms in the evening as highs again approach 90 with more of the same on Monday. Trough and ULL build down by Mon night (6/29) and lingers over or off the New England coast till Friday. Still think with that proximity showers and rain chances are increased tue - fri. By Friday the main ULL is lifting out allowing for a warm Jul 3 / 4th. Another weakness is cutting off in the Mid Atlantic by 7/5 and pushing west towards TN by 7/6. That could lead to (go figure) more onshore flow for a day or two till the 6th. Beyond there lots of warm air over the region.

If we are talking 100s there is nothing showing that currently. Although in 2011 the 100s waited till later that month. LGA and EWR were able to reach low 90s Mon with 850 temps of 16c. I think we are looking overall warm to hot and should we miss widespread storms and rains Sat and between 7/1 - 7/3 the tendency will be for temps to outperform guidance on the sunnier days. 850s look between 16c- 18c by the 3rd waiting for the flow to come around to from the west. The heat has over performed to the north and as we see the ridge flatten and expand he week of Jul 6 - 11 may see much above normal temps.

Just about a week away. ULL looks to push out by the fourth but linger off New England coast. Flow goes N/NW and warming by later Sat and the 5th. Looking overall dry and warm with cooler along the beaches and NJ shore Sat. Sunday looks to begin a hot stretch that looks to linger beyond the first week of July.

6/26 ACY: 90 LGA: 90 EWR: 89 BLM: 88 PHL: 88 New Brnswck: 88 TEB: 88 TTN: 88 NYC: 87 ISP: 86 JFK: 86

6/26 ACY: 90 LGA: 90 EWR: 89 BLM: 88 PHL: 88 New Brnswck: 88 TEB: 88 TTN: 88 NYC: 87 ISP: 86 JFK: 86

Hope to add something meaningful tomorrow and id expect through the week with the position of the ULL more QPF to shop up on guidance and hope it materializes to actual precip.

Storms missed to the south along the Jersey shore last night. Clouds did limit any widespread 90s on Wed. Warm and dry today and more upper 80s to isolated 90 degree readings (enhanced by dryness). Dew temps up a tinge near 60 now, so not as comfortable as Wed/THu. Weekend is warm and only clouds and storms timing could limit Sat from being the hottest day of the season so far. Storms come through Sat evening and hope to bring more widespread rain and downpours to the areas. Things should clear out Sunday with temps again near 90 with isolated storms. By Sunday evening a weakness in the ridge leads to trough to build down and close off over the northeast 6/30 - 7/3 Id expect guidance to show more showers and storms in this period with the position of the ULL vs prior occurrences in late May and last week.. GFS and ECM push the ULL offshore by July 4th. Some onshore flow still lingering into the 4th/5th but looks dry for the holiday weekend. Once the flow goes NW/ W the heat is on 7/5-6ish into the following week and beyond. Ridge is flatter and overall warm to hot pattern looks to ensue.

6/25 LGA: 89 EWR: 88 NYC: 87 ACY: 87 TEB: 86 ISP: 85 JFK: 85 PHL: 84 New Brnswck: 84 BLM: 84 TTN: 84

220 hours to go. GFS continues with bringing the flow more NW by Sat the 4th, while the ECM hole the ULL / onshore through Jul 8. We'll see if this a run that went too long or a trend. Either way looking warm and dry for most on the 4th, beaches may be a bit cooler. Once the flow turns, the heat is on.

Down to a comfortable 60/54 last night. Upto 776 now as clouds cut NJ in half SW to NE. More warm and dry next day into the mid 80s, little if any showers or rain. Warming tomorrow to the upper 80s and by Saturday perhaps the hottest day of the season (so far) as 850 temps exceed 18c ahead of storms overnight. Warmer / drier by Sunday pm and near 90. ULL cutoff now coming in to view but these are hard to handle so a day or so timing may be needed as buffer. 6/30 - 7/30 ULL over the northeast E/ NE flow for a few days and perhasps clouds and storms one or two of those days. Overall warm airmass with ULL trapped in the weakness part 3. Both GFS and ECM pushing ULL off shore by the fourth of July with a more N/NW flow to warm things back up later that day and Sunday the heat is on. Beyond there looks like sustained warmth with a flatter ridge keeping the flow hot.

a 6/24 LGA: 89 EWR: 88 ACY: 88 JFK: 88 ISP: 88 NYC: 86 TEB: 86 BLM: 86 TTN: 85 PHL: 85 New Brnswck: 85

244 hours to go. A matter of clearing the weakness / ULL within the ridge. ECM a bit longer into the 4th with the GFS quicker to move the ULL cutoff out. Overall once flow goes N/NW the heat is on. Ahead of that 6/30 - 7/3 onshore and may become wetter on guidance. But the holiday weekend looks to warm.

Noon roundup, very nice less humid warm summer day JFK: 85 / 64 EWR: 84 / 56 ACY: 84 / 59 LGA: 84/ 55 ISP: 84/ 68 NYC: 82 / 54 TEB: 82 / 56 BLM: 81 / 58 New Brnswck: 80 / 56 PHL: 79 / 52 TTN: 78 / 55

Past June departures, at least the warmest since 2011 likely. EWR: 2019: +.3 2018: -0.3 2017: +0.5 2016: +0.3 2015: -0.4 2014: +0.4 2013: +0.8 2012: 0 2011: +2.0 2010: +3.8 LGA: 2019: +0.6 2018: +1.4 2017: +1.5 2016: +1.2 2015: -0.9 2014: +0.3 2013: +1.8 2012: +0.7 2011: +0.4 2010: +3.8 NYC: 2019: +0.2 2018: +0.2 2017: +0.6 2016: +0.8 2015: -0.2 2014: +1.0 2013: +1.2 2012: -0.4 2011: +0.9 2010: +3.2

Missed all but a sun shower since Friday where i was lucky to get 0.10. Perhaps with the ULL now forecast to be close by and essentially over the region bewteen 6/30 and 7/3 maybe we can see some widespread rains. We shall see if models start showing anything more widespread. Past ULL in May and last week had some decent rains where the ULL st for a few days.

June departures through 6/24 (7 days to go). I remeber last year with the searing heat in the Southeast and now into the northeast. Sandwiched so far. EWR: +1.6 NYC: +2.0 LGA: +3.2 JFK: +0.5 TTN: +1.1 CAR: +5.7 ALB: +4.1 BTV: +3.0

Clouds hauling through with a more westerly wind now and p to 78. Where as yesterday was below forecast today with a more westerly flow may out do guidance similar to monday. So ares will approach or reach 90, enhanced by the recent dryness. Sat and Sunday should see temps again exceed 90 in a more widespread fashion ahead of the next trough and subsequent ULL. Overnight runs with the return of the onshore flow that went let go until Independence day weekend. This time the ULL cut off may be closer by and muddy up 6/30 - 7/3 with more with clouds and rain then sunny cool and dry weather we had the past two where the ULL was much further south. I do think we warm things up by Sat/Sun (7.4 -7/5) and the week beyond the 4th holiday.. Get the flow N / NW and 850 temps are an ocean of >18C. These tendencies of ULL that linger 4 - 6 days may finally see that progression north and east of the area beyond the first week of July. Overall

260 hours to go. Guidance still varying on when the flow goes more NW/W but still looks like after a few days (6/30 - 7/2 or 3) of onshore flow we heat things up the fourth of July weekend. Still need to watch if a ULL fully cuts off and is pushed southwest similar to May and last week but the weekend may prove to get on the warmer flow of the ULL whether pushing inland (SW) or pushing east.

6/23 New Brnswck: 92 TTN: 90 PHL: 90 EWR: 88 LGA: 87 NYC: 87 ACY: 87 TEB: 87 BLM: 85 ISP: 82 JFK: 82