SACRUS

Cusp of some heavy rains in the next week.

72 / 58 more clouds today but partly cloudy mid / upper 70s pending on that sunshine. Hung up patter going from days of sun to days of clouds and maybe light rain on onshore flow Tue - Fri. Heaviest seems south or east but we'll see a general 0.75 - 1.00 over the period. Ridging over the top continues easterly flow through the next week. Clouds in the way and keeping it near normal / below.

Highs: PHL: 84 TEB: 82 EWR: 81 New Brnswck: 81 JFK: 81 ISP: 80 TTN: 80 NYC: 80 ACY: 79 LGA: 78 BLM: 75

Records: Highs: EWR: 94 (1983) NYC: 92 (1927) LGA: 91 (1993) JFK: 85 (2008) Lows: EWR: 47 (1975) NYC: 44 (1873) LGA: 49 (1975) JFK: 45 (1975) Historical: 1747: Some historical accounts of a hurricane caused flooding on the Rappahannock River in Virginia. A slave ship was overturned, and several fatalities were reported. 1752 - A great hurricane produced a tide along the South Carolina coast which nearly inundated downtown Charleston. However, just before the tide reached the city, a shift in the wind caused the water level to drop five feet in ten minutes. (David Ludlum) 1910 - Rains of .27 inch on the 14th and .73 inch on the 15th were the earliest and heaviest of record for Fresno CA, which, along with much of California, experiences a ""rainy season"" in the winter. (The Weather Channel) 1945: A hurricane entered the south Florida coast at Homestead, curving northward right up through the center of Florida, remaining over land, and exited near Jacksonville Beach with winds gusting to 170 mph. The following is from the Homestead Air Reserve Base. “On Sept. 15, 1945, three years to the day after the founding of the Homestead Army Air Field, a massive hurricane roared ashore, sending winds of up to 145 miles per hour tearing through the Air Field's buildings. Enlisted housing facilities, the nurses' dormitory, and the Base Exchange were all destroyed. The roof was ripped from what would later become building 741, the Big Hangar. The base laundry and fire station were both declared total losses. The few remaining aircraft were tossed about like leaves.” 1939 - The temperature at Detroit MI soared to 100 degrees to establish a record for September. (The Weather Channel) 1982 - A snowstorm over Wyoming produced 16.9 inches at Lander to esablish a 24 hour record for September for that location. (13th-15th) (The Weather Channel) 1987 - The first snow of the season was observed at the Winter Park ski resort in Colorado early in the day. Eight inches of snow was reported at the Summit of Mount Evans, along with wind gusts to 61 mph. Early morning thunderstorms in Texas produced up to six inches of rain in Real County. Two occupants of a car drowned, and the other six occupants were injured as it was swept into Camp Wood Creek, near the town of Leakey. Late afternoon and evening thunderstorms produced severe weather in central and northeastern Oklahoma. Wind gusts to 70 mph and golf ball size hail were reported around Oklahoma City OK. (National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1988 - Thunderstorms brought much needed rains to parts of the central U.S. Rainfall totals of 2.87 inches at Sioux City IA and 4.59 inches at Kansas City MO were records for the date. Up to eight inches of rain deluged the Kansas City area, nearly as much rain as was received the previous eight months. Hurricane Gilbert, meanwhile, slowly churned toward the U.S./Mexican border. (The National Weather Summary) 1989 - Showers and thunderstorms produced locally heavy rain in the Central Appalachians. Virgie VA received 2.60 inches of rain during the evening hours, and Bartlett TN was deluged with 2.75 inches in just ninety minutes. Heavy rain left five cars partially submerged in high water in a parking lot at Bulls Gap TN. Thunderstorms over central North Carolina drenched the Fayetteville area with four to eight inches of rain between 8 PM and midnight. Flash flooding, and a couple of dam breaks, claimed the lives of two persons, and caused ten million dollars damage. Hugo, churning over the waters of the Carribean, strengthened to the category of a very dangerous hurricane, packing winds of 150 mph. (Storm Data) (The National Weather Summary) 2010: The largest hailstone in Kansas was found in southwest Wichita. It measured 7.75 inches in diameter. 2011: An EF0 Waterspout moved ashore in Ocean City, Maryland.

Continued ridging north and over with onshore flow, ridge does center south towards the 24/25 with more westerly flow on guidance and close out much warmer this month

70 / 63 some clouds E - W moving through. Partly cloudy in the step down . Low / mid 80s and dry. One more dry/warm day on Monday sunny and highs near 80 / low 80s. Tue - Fri clouds and showers and watch where the steady rain setups. Ridging over the top sends high pressure down later Friday and the upcoming weeked with NE flow (cooler) but drier again into early the week of 9/23. Ridge into the east and perhaps a warmer more W flow (SW/NW) to clsoe the month. Overall warmer.

8 days at 89 degrees sealed the deal.

Highs EWR: 87 PHL: 87 New Brnswck: 85 TEB: 85 JFK: 85 TTN: 85 ISP: 84 NYC: 83 LGA: 82 BLM: 80 ACY: 80

86 / 61 matching Sep 1 high so far

Records: Highs: EWR: 94 (2016) NYC: 93 (1931) LGA: 92 (2016) JFK: 89 (1995) Lows: EWR: 45 (1975) NYC: 45 (1975) LGA: 48 (1975) JFK: 48 (1975) Historical: 1928: A violent, estimated F4 tornado, with winds of 200 mph, tore across Rockford, Illinois. The tornado first touched down 8 miles south-southwest of Rockford and moved across the southeast part of the city. The tornado was on the ground for 25 miles with a width varying from 200 to 500 feet. A total of 14 people were killed, with around 100 injuries reported in Rockford alone. Two hundred buildings were damaged or destroyed. 1937 - The mercury soared to 92 degrees at Seattle, WA, a record for September. (The Weather Channel) 1944 - A very destructive hurricane swept across Cape Hatteras and Chesapeake Bay, side swiped New Jersey and Long Island, and crossed southeastern Massachusetts. The hurricane killed more than four hundred persons, mainly at sea. The hurricane destroyed the Atlantic City NJ boardwalk. (David Ludlum) (The Weather Channel) 1970 - The temperature at Fremont, OR, dipped to 2 above zero to equal the state record for September set on the 24th in 1926. (The Weather Channel) 1977: Severe thunderstorms produced several tornadoes in eastern Arkansas, killing one. 1987 - Barrow, AK, received 5.1 inches of snow, a record for September. (Sandra and TI Richard Sanders - 1987) 1987 - Thunderstorms developing along a cold front produced severe weather from Minnesota to Texas. Thunderstorms in Iowa produced baseball size hail at Laporte City, and 80 mph winds at Laurens. Hail caused more than ten million dollars damage to crops in Iowa. Thunderstorms in Missouri produced wind gusts to 75 mph at Missouri City and Kansas City. A thunderstorm in Texas deluged the town of Fairlie with two inches of rain in just two hours. (Storm Data) (The National Weather Summary) 1988 - Hurricane Gilbert made the first of its two landfalls on Mexico, producing 170 mph winds at Cozumel. (The Weather Channel) 1988 - Thunderstorms produced severe weather over the Texas panhandle during the evening hours. One thunderstorm spawned a strong (F-2) tornado in the southwest part of Amarillo, and deluged the area with five inches of rain. The heavy rain left roads under as much as five feet of water, and left Lawrence Lake a mile out of its banks. Hurricane Gilbert lost some of its punch crossing the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico. Its maximum winds diminished to 120 mph. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1989 - Unseasonably cool weather prevailed across the south central U.S. Eight cities reported record low temperatures for the date, including Raton NM with a reading of 30 degrees. The afternoon high of 59 degrees at Topeka KS marked their third straight record cool maximum temperature. Unseasonably warm weather continued in the Pacific Northwest. Seattle WA reported a record eight days in a row of 80 degree weather in September. (Storm Data) (The National Weather Summary) 2005: Hurricane Ophelia caused some damage and beach erosion along the United States coastline from Florida to North Carolina. The closest approach occurred on September 14 and 15 with its western eyewall crossing land and the eye remaining just offshore in the Carolinas. Click HERE for more information from the NWS Office in Charleston, South Carolina. 2008: Hurricane Ike became extratropical on this day. The St. Louis Metropolitan Area experienced hurricane conditions, with Ike's remnants inflicting severe damage to homes. Several areas in Illinois and Indiana, already flooded by the frontal boundary to the north, saw significant additional rainfall. Due to flooding in Chicago, a state of emergency was declared for Cook County due to flooding of the Des Plaines River. Hurricane-force wind gusts were reported to the east of the center across parts of Kentucky, Indiana, Ohio, and Pennsylvania with significant wind damage including structural damage to buildings and trees.

Trending wetter

64 / 63 clear. Warmest day of the period. Mid to upper 80s in the warm spots. Remaining dry / warm Sun day Mon before clouds and showers by later Tue. Hung up patters has the cut off SE flow with rain Wed - Fri to break the dry streak. By next weekend ridge building back in from the top with NE/E flow near normal. Beyond there both gfs and euro with ridging returning later in the period with more sw flow and continued warm to much warmer. 9/14 - 9/16 : Dry / warm 9/17 - 9/20 : Clouds, rain SE flow 9/21 - 9/23 : Onshore flow dries out

Highs: TEB: 85 PHL: 85 EWR: 84 New Brnswck: 83 TTN: 83 LGA: 82 NYC: 82 ACY: 80 JFK: 79 ISP: 79 BLM: 76

Records: Highs: EWR: 94 (2005) NYC: 94 (1952) LGA: 93 (1952) JFK: 89 (1994) Lows: EWR: 49 (1985) NYC: 46 (1963) LGA: 50 (1985) JFK: 47 (1963) Historical: 1823: A strong category 1 or low category 2 hurricane struck near New Orleans, Louisiana and went toward Baton Rouge. Its strongest impacts occurred west of New Orleans. 1922 - The temperature at El Azizia in Libyia soared to 136 degrees to estbalish a world record. To make matters worse, a severe ghibi (dust storm) was in progress. (The Weather Channel) 1928 - Hurricane San Felipe crossed Puerto Rico resulting in the highest winds, the heaviest rains, and the greatest destruction in years. The hurricane produced much damage in the Virgin Islands, and later hit the Bahamas and Florida. (David Ludlum) 1944: The destroyer USS Warrington was sunk by the Great Atlantic Hurricane 300 miles east of Cape Canaveral, Florida. 247 men were lost in the tragedy. 1984 - Hurricane Diana, after making a complete loop off the Carolina coast, made landfall and moved across eastern North Carolina. Diana deluged Cape Fear with more than eighteen inches of rain, and caused 78 million dollars damage in North Carolina. (Storm Data) 1978: Little Rock, Arkansas saw 8.10 inches of rain which caused major flash flooding. Ten people were killed. 1987 - Showers and thunderstorms produced heavy rain in the northeastern U.S. Flooding was reported in Vermont, New York, Pennsylvania and New Jersey. Greenwood NY received 6.37 inches of rain. A dike along a creek at Prattsburg NY gave way and a two million dollar onion crop left on the ground to dry was washed away. The prolonged rains in the eastern U.S. finally came to an end late in the day as a cold front began to push the warm and humid airmass out to sea. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1988 - Hurricane Gilbert smashed into the Cayman Islands, and as it headed for the Yucatan peninsula of Mexico strenghtened into a monster hurricane, packing winds of 175 mph. The barometric pressure at the center of Gilbert reached 26.13 inches (888 mb), an all-time record for any hurricane in the Carribean, Gulf of Mexico, or the Atlantic Ocean. Gilbert covered much of the Gulf of Mexico, producing rain as far away as the Florida Keys. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1989 - Unseasonably cool weather prevailed over the Central Plains Region, with a record low of 29 degrees at North Platte NE. Unseasonably warm weather prevailed across the Pacific Northwest, with a record high of 96 degrees at Eugene OR. Thunderstorms over south Texas produced wind gusts to 69 mph at Del Rio, and two inches of rain in two hours. (National Weather Summary) 2008: Hurricane Ike made landfall as a Category 2 storm near Galveston, Texas. 017: The NWS Office in Reno, Nevada, issued their first tornado warning since July 21st, 2014.

Getting closer

59 / 58 and sunny. Record skipping with another mostly sunny dry day - tack on at least 3 more Sat, Sun and Mon. Warm low - mid 80s with saturday the warmest day and if mostly sunny some of the warmer spot to the upper 80s as flow comes around more dform the west. Trough east, Francines decaying remnants in the middle and ridge northeast with cut off near the south east. By Tuesday some showers/rain nearby, we'll see if it gets to cnj and north. GFS wetter than euro where the cut off stalls will be wet. This hung up pattern is one that things stick around a while whether its nice weather or wet weather. Beyond next week, overall warm some semblance a trough moving into the GL - ridge EC, would imply a change to wetter overall too. Clods to MD

Highs: TEB: 87 PHL: 83 EWR: 82 New Brnswck: 81 TTN: 81 LGA: 81 NYC: 80 ACY: 78 JFK: 78 BLM: 76 ISP: 76

Records: Highs: EWR: 95 (1961) NYC: 94 (1961) LGA: 94 (1961) JFK: 91 (1981) Lows: EWR: 47 (1958) NYC: 46 (1917) LGA: 52 (1967) JFK: 46 (1967) Historical: 1857: The SS Central America sinks during a hurricane, killing 425 lives. Fourteen tons of gold was aboard the ship as well. 1882 - Hot and dry winds caused tree foliage in eastern Kansas to wither and crumble. (David Ludlum) 1950: A hailstorm struck southern parts of Oklahoma City on this day. The storm damaged about 4,000 homes, 300 businesses, and 750 cars, resulting in a loss estimated at $987,000. 1963: President Kennedy gave his, “We choose to go to the moon” speech at Rice University. 1977 - Thunderstorms deluged the Kansas City area with torrential rains in the early morning hours, and then again that evening. Some places were deluged with more than six inches of rain twice that day, with up to 18 inches of rain reported at Independence MO. Flooding claimed the lives of 25 persons. The Country Club Plaza area was hardest hit. 2000 vehicles had to be towed following the storm, 150 of which had to be pulled out of Brush Creek, which runs through the Plaza area. (The Kansas City Weather Almanac) 1979 - Hurricane Frederick smashed into the Mobile Bay area of Alabama packing 132 mph winds. Winds gusts to 145 mph were reported as the eye of the hurricane moved over Dauphin Island AL, just west of Mobile. Frederick produced a fifteen foot storm surge near the mouth of Mobile Bay. The hurricane was the costliest in U.S. history causing 2.3 billion dollars damage. (David Ludlum) (The Weather Channel) 1987 - Showers and thunderstorms produced heavy rain which caused flooding in North Carolina, West Virginia, Virginia and Pennsylvania. Parts of Virginia received 3 to 4 inches of rain in just two hours early in the day. Later in the day, three to five inch rains deluged Cumberland County of south central Pennsylvania. Evening thunderstorms produced seven inches of rain at Marysville PA, most of which fell in three hours time. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1988 - An afternoon tornado spawned a tornado which skipped across northern sections of Indianapolis IN damaging roofs and automobiles. It was the first tornado in central Indiana in September in nearly forty years of records. Hurricane Gilbert plowed across the island of Jamaica, and by the end of the day was headed for the Cayman Islands, packing winds of 125 mph. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1989 - Snow whitened the mountains and foothills of northeastern Colorado, with eight inches reported at Buckhorn Mountain, west of Fort Collins. Two to three inches fell around Denver, causing great havoc during the evening rush hour. Thunderstorms produced severe weather in the Southern Plains Region between mid afternoon and early the next morning. Thunderstorms produced hail three inches in diameter at Roswell NM, and wind gusts greater than 98 mph at Henryetta OK. Thunderstorms also produced torrential rains, with more than seven inches at Scotland TX, and more than six inches at Yukon OK. (National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

Sep 1 - Sep 11 TTN: -4.7 Allentown : -3.0

What that looks like numbers-wise for Monthly averages against normal through Sep 11 JFK: -2 EWR: -3.1 ISP: -3.3 NYC: -3.9 LGA: -4

Dry northeast / deluge southeast

65 / 65 more humid fog in parts. NNE light wind if not calm. Fog burns off and back to near / low 80s for this So-Cal style stretch including the morning grays. Ridge northeast / Francines in the middle and trough west. More of the same the next 5 - 7 days pending on how far north the cut off low on the south east next week , still not sure it doesnt get to us by Tue / Wed, otherwise high pressure ruling the east and producing overall above normal - to much above normal temps and blocking much of any lwo pressure. A persistent onshore-flow keeps the heat at bay and the warmest in this 1-2 week stretch may not get to 90 even in the warm spots but push monthly departures above normal and likely total a 14 days +3 - +5 for the period.

Highs PHL: 84 TEB: 84 TTN: 82 New Brnswck: 81 EWR: 81 NYC: 79 ACY: 79 JFK: 78 ISP: 77 LGA: 77 BLM: 76