SACRUS
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Some of the urban/metro and CNJ areas should add 3 or more 90 degree days by Aug 1, but it is a fine line with the strongest heat just south and between the hotter days N'rly flow will cool/dry the area. ECM the opposite next week Aug 1 - 5 with one warm-hot day then some below normal days. Its 7-10 days away so we will see how it trends and if the stronger heat can bring more mid 90s to the hotter spots Tue (7/27). It seems when the heat comes by way of the Western Atlantic Ridge building west, there is a period of normal to below when the ridge retreats east, thats what we are in now between the Rockies ridge and the W. aTl Ridge. We'll see if EC ridging can make a come back and push the summer to the hotter side overall. 90 degree days are still on par with 2016/2012 tallies to this points so Junes big numbers helping in that department.
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Seems like a good forecast. Currently looking a bit back and forth with a fine line between some hot days and more /drier seasonal this week bias warm. Once to the weekend 7/31 through the first 5-6 days of August looks bias cooler than normal with a day or two mixed in hot. Beyond that the western ridge looks to expand east and perhaps the Wsetern Atlntc ridge noses west again.
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7/25 PHL: 88 BLM: 86 EWR: 87 ACY: 86 New Brnswck: 86 TTN: 85 TEB: 84 LGA: 84 NYC: 83 ISP: 80 JFK:80
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I am not sure if the image is cached (24 hours prior) for some reason but none the less some breaks in the mostly cloudy conditions approaching the area
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Next weekend looks interesting as the 00Z ECM 24 hours later has heat just south of the region and temps near 90 on Sunday 8/1 for a brief period. With still a week out you wonder if it trends more cooler (troughy) or if it corrects warmer.
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74/68 and .27 in the bucket from the earlier rains. Satellite does show more breaks in the clouds so we will see how warm it gets today. Warmer pattern today through Thu (7/29), with Tue perhaps being the hottest day with 850 temps >16c in parts and may allow the warmer spots mid to perhaps upper 90s range in the extreme. We are skirting the north edge of the heat and bit more ridging would mean stronger heat and cooler if the flow pushed more northerly. So could see a day (wed) back near normal before warmup ahead of the front. Beyond there a bit back and forth next weekend Fri (7/30) - Sun (8/1) where there looks to be cooler air followed by a brief return (12-24) hours of some heat and that looks like Sunday (8/1). Could be interesting with such a contrast of the heat and cooler weather near the regios. Beyond there Aug looks to open cooler before more heat from the west pushes east and we'll see if the W. Atlantic ridge builds west in the Wed 8/4 and beyond period.
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7/24 PHL: 86 EWR: 85 New Brnswck: 85 ACY: 85 NYC: 84 TTN: 83 TEB: 83 LGA: 83 JFK: 82 ISP: 81 BLM: 80
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Of the 2010, 99, 88, 77, 66, 55, 44, 33, 22,11 batch 2021 so far on the lower side after a strong start in June early July, culd make a comeback in Aug/Sep. EWR could get to 35(+) 90 degree days and other spots could get closer to 25-30. We'll see no strong / sustained heat (95+) the next 7 - 10 days, even though some warmer spots may grab a 95 this coming week.
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80 / 58 and a very nice summer day. Reminds me of the So Cal warmth. Tomorrow once we get through any storms shoudl start an (overall) warmer - hot period Sunday (7/25) - the next week. 850 temps looks to rise to >15c and some guidance brings in spatters of 18c in the period. On e rim of the ridge and heat spread from the west. Warmer spots should notch at least 4 90 degree days but the strongest heat is south of the region for the most part. There will be some interruptions of heat with the n/nnw flow mid week or late week before another brief surge of warmer to hot air later next weekend 7/30 and into early August. Then need to watch the W Atlantic Ridge and if the Rockies ridge can surge more heat east. Till then today should be a enjoyable one!
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7/23 EWR: 86 PHL: 85 New Brnswck: 85 BLM: 84 JFK: 84 NYC: 83 LGA: 83 ISP: 83 ACY: 83 TTN: 82 TEB: 81
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81/ 52 just tremendous weather right now.
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Great summer weather Fri / Sat before we warm back up Sun (7/25) - Thu (7/29) Strongest heat nearby (plenty of it feeding in from the Rockies ridge) but still plenty of >15C temps and W/NW flow should yield more 90s and perhaps one stronger heat day where the hot spots could touch mid / upper 90s. Beyond there cooler end to the month and we'll see if the W. Atlantic Ridge builds back west into the EC.
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7/21 ACY: 89 PHL: 86 EWR: 85 JFk: 85 BLM: 85 New Brnswck: 84 ISP: 83 TTN: 82 LGA: 82 TEB: 82 NYC: 80
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No the Western/Plains ridge will expand east and the immense heat will spread into the region. Strong heat (95+) with 850 MB temps ?18c will need to be tracked next week / end of July. In the extreme it could progress into an Aug 2001 opening,
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Judy Collins western smoke got in the way today 7/20 EWR: 90 LGA: 89 TEB: 89 ACY: 89 PHL: 88 New Brnswck: 88 BLM: 87 NYC: 86 JFK: 86 ISP: 86 TTN: 85
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7/20 (smoke) EWR: 90 LGA: 89 TEB: 89 ACY: 89 PHL: 88 New Brnswck: 88 BLM: 87 NYC: 86 JFK: 86 ISP: 86 TTN: 85
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Despite the trough/lower heights into the NE between the Western/Rockies plains ridge and the western Atlantic ridge, the heat extends well north west into Canada and should allow for some heat in that pattern, we'll have to see if the stronger heat can extend north of PHL/SNJ. But heights look to rise beyond this period as ridging backs west into the east coast,
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Jul 20th - 1010 AM 82/63 - and shaping up as a fantastic summer day. Warmer spots could get low 90s and most other stations near or at 90. More of the same tomorrow before the front comes through so pending on when clouds arrive for chances at 90. Beyond there Thu (7/22) through Sat (7/24) drier and cooler air for a few days as the Western Ridge continues to produce some high heat. Pieces of that heat are expanding east by Sunday (7/25) and despite the weak trough into the northeast some of that heat will get into the area. Into the final week of the month (Mon) 7/26 - Fri (7/30) heights flatten a bit and some of the stronger heat may come in pieces that week. It'll be interesting to see where the line between the seasonal warmth and heat setsup PHL south or NY south. Way out there The western atlantic ridge may be nosing back into the west coast to open next month.
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7/19 PHL: 88 TTN: 86 EWR: 86 New Brnswck: 85 ACY: 85 BLM: 84 TEB: 83 JFK: 82 LGA: 82 NYC: 81 ISP: 81
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7/18: EWR: 86 LGA: 86 JFK: 85 TEB: 85 ACY: 85 BLM: 84 NYC: 84 ISP: 83 New Brnswck: 83 PHL: 80 TTN: 79
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Both 2012, 2013 were in the midst of some record heat today/yesterday. 2011 as well.
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http://synoptic.envsci.rutgers.edu/site/imgs/vis_nj_anim.gif
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Dewpoints dropping from the lower 70s this morning now closer to the 62-65 range. Also, more pokes of sunshine than otherwise would have expected. Not a bad day.
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Monthly rain totals (so far through 7/17): NYC: 9.16 EWR: 7.81 TEB: 6.62 LGA: 6.03 TTN: 5.41 JFK: 4.07 ISP: 4.66
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80/72 and mostly cloudy with peaks of sunshine with fast moving clouds. Still a bit unsettled as the front moves through so scattered showers, and storms. Front will likely fully clear and earlier concerns of a cloudier monday look to be alleviated. Western ridge means business and will bake the western US Rockies and Plains. Tuesday (7/20) and Wednesday (7-21)flatter western flow could push the warmer spots to 90 before front comes through wed. Truughing into the northeast Thu (7/22) into next weekend and despite the lower heights hot air from the west pushes east. It looks like when we can flatten the flow or pop heights we can get some heat into the area but it'll be a fine line between near normal / cooler than normal (dry) and some stronger heat next weekend into the week of 7/26. Beyond there the western atlantic ridge is expanding west as we close out the month. Western heat - trough into the GL, warm - hot humd pattern may return to start next month. Should these ridges link, then its off to the races 2001 style, but thats way out there. Best to bet on any dry periods being brief for now and bias warm once to next or past next weekend
