SACRUS

10AM Roundup:

LGA: 84
New Brnswck: 82
EWR: 82
ACY: 81
NYC: 81
BLM: 81
TEB: 81
ISP: 81
JFK: 79
TTN: 79
PHL: 78

9AM

LGA:82
ACY: 80
EWR: 80
New Brnswck: 80
BLM: 79
NYC: 79
TEB: 79
ISP: 78
JFK: 77
TTN: 76
PHL: 76

Looks like clouds and storms over W-PA should reach the area between 2 and 3 PM, lets see what they look like by then.  Cached image will show wrong date so not worth posting it.

2 hours ago, SnoSki14 said:

Overnight Euro is already pulling back on any extreme heat. Looks like another omega block showing up.

Cutoff with onshore flow to start July, could exit by July 4th though these systems tend to stick around longer. 

GFS OP would be very cool to start July.

Very good point as seen in the last two cutoff ULL migrations.   add a day or two vs model projections.  Suspect the period would be 6/30 - 7/2 or 7/3 before the flow turns on the heat by 4th of July weekend.  Alternately we can see a scenario where the flow stays more northerly pushing down the heat during that period.  I would lean towards the onshore  flow for a few days to open the month.  With enough clouds maybe the GFS was onto something unusually cool for a day to two before the heat can filter in.

Up to 78 off a low of 67 here.

Overnight runs continue a warm pattern only interrupted 6/30 - 7/2 (or 3rd) by an onshore component before more heat comes in for Independence Day weekend.  ECM did show this feature on the 00z guidance while GFS warmer than the Monday runs.  Tendency has been for ridging to build north so that period is likely to see heat muted for a 3-4 day window.  Beyond there July looks to sizzle for much of the nation.

Days near or exceeding 90 : 6/23,24, 27, 28, 29,  before a few days of cooler.

Overall looking like  very warm 4th of July weekend from this far in advance.  ECM is hotter than the GFS but both imply above normal to hot conditions.  Believe the onshore flow timing is more 6/30 - 7/2 or 3. But being that is has been a reoccurring theme this past 2 months, something to watch as we go through the next few days. 276 hours to go...

6/22

LGA: 93
EWR: 92
New Brnswck: 91
TEB: 91
NYC: 90
BLM: 90
TTN: 89
PHL: 89
ACY: 88
ISP: 88
JFK: 87

On 4/26/2011 at 9:17 AM, SACRUS said:

 

2020:

PHL: 1  (April: 0; May: 0  ; June: 2 ; Jul: ; Aug:  ; Sep:  ; Oct:  )
EWR: 3  (April: 0; May:  0; June: 3 ; Jul:  ; Aug:  ; Sep: ; Oct:  )
TTN: 1 (April:0 ; May:  0; June: 1; Jul:  ; Aug: ; Sep: ; Oct:  )
LGA: 3 (April: 0; May: 0; June: 3  ; Jul: ; Aug: ; Sep:  ; Oct: )
ACY: (April: 0; May: 0 ; June:1  ; Jul:  ; Aug:  ; Sep: ; Oct: )
TEB: 1 (April: 0; May: 0 ; June: 1 ; Jul:   ; Aug: ; Sep: ;  Oct: )
NYC: 1 (April: 0; May: 0 ; June: 1 ; Jul: ; Aug:  ; Sep: ; Oct:  )
JFK:  (April: 0; May:0 ; June: ; Jul:  ; Aug:  ; Sep: ; Oct:  )
ISP: (April: 0; May:0 ; June:  ; Jul: ; Aug: ; Sep: )
New Bnswk:2 (April:0 , May: , June: 2 , July: ; Aug:  ;Sep: ; Oct :)

89 degree days;

New Brnswick: 2
ACY: 1
TEB: 1

TTN:1

PHL: 1

BLM: 1

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

 

6/22

LGA: 93
EWR: 92
New Brnswck: 91
TEB: 91
NYC: 90
BLM: 90
TTN: 89
PHL: 89
ACY: 88
ISP: 88
JFK: 87

1PM ROunup

LGA: 93
EWR: 91
BLM: 90
NYC: 89
New Brnswck: 89
TEB: 88
ACY: 87
ISP: 87
JFK: 86
TTN: 86
PHL: 85
 

Noon roundup;

LGA: 90
EWR: 89
TEB: 88
New Brnswck: 87
BLM: 87
JFK: 85
TTN: 84
NYC: 84 (still some moisture in the overgrowth)
ISP: 84
ACY: 84
PHL: 83

11AM Roundup

LGA: 89
ISP: 87
EWR: 87
TEB: 86
New Brnswck: 86
BLM: 85
NYC: 85
ACY: 84
JFK: 84
TTN: 82
PHL: 81

Already 84 degrees here on what should be so far the hottest day of the season .

Overnight guidance continues with a warm outlook, forecasting above normal temps overall and sveral bouts of heat.  Next few days upper 80s low 90s (exceeding when mostly sunny and enhanced by recent dryness) before front pushes through with trough Wed PM - Fri.  Warm back up Sat (6/27) to Mon (6/29).  Ridge builds north again and we likely see some onshore component 6/30 - 7/2 but still looks warm.  Once the flow goes more NW/W by thr 3rd it should be off to the races for the 4th of July weekend.

Last few runs of the GFS, Euro / ensembles showing strong ridging building into the region by 6/30 but flow could be onshore before going more NW/WNW by Jul 3.  Looking hot by the 4th right now.

 A dry park could rack up a few 90s this week and next weeked.

Ill go 2-3  between 6/22 - 6/30 in the park and 4 or 5 in LGA/EWR.

Today's Highs (6/21)

TEB: 88
NYC: 88
New Brnswck: 88
LGA: 88
EWR: 86
TTN: 86
PHL: 86
ACY: 85
ISP: 84
JFK: 82
BLM: 82

4 hours ago, CIK62 said:

The next 8 days are averaging 79degs., or 5degs. AN.

Month to date is  +1.3[71.4].        Should be  +2.3[73.6] by the 29th.

70* here at 6am, haze.

GFS OP has 14 straight 90's starting Tues., but just one '100' this run, July  4th. itself.   Finally the ENS shows a 90 (on the 29th.).

ENS showing more NE (onshore-ish) Jul 2-4 as ridge centers north again.  But it is turning more N/NW as it progresses.

Up to 77, evaded the rain but was mostly cloudy from about 3:00 on after a high of 87 on Saturday.

Flow is still southerly today more Florida type weather and with more sun temps will again mid- upper 80s possible closing in on 90 in the wrmer spots.  Warm patter 6/22 - 6/25 ech day possible reaching 90 and the seasons first heatwave for some is likely.  Storms possible with front wed pm/ thu then warmer air returns as ridging pushes east towards next Saturday.  We'll see how and where the ridge  centers with the tendency to go north and create more onshore flow.  This time  it could get more North / NW component to open July hotter and sustained for a period...

Happy Fathers Day! 

6/20 Highs

LGA: 88
TEB: 87
EWR: 87
NYC: 86
New Brnswck: 86
ACY: 85
TTN: 85
PHL: 84
BLM: 83
JFK: 82
ISP: 82
 

Cool down;

6/13:
NYC: 75/59 (-4)
EWR: 77/58 (-4)
LGA:  77/60 (-3)
JFK:  73/59 (-3)
TTN: 74/57 (-4)

8 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Looks like the highs will only be able to make it to around 90 next week near the EWR to LGA area. This has been the the same theme since late May. The major 95+ heat has found a way to go north or south of us. Strongest ridging in the means has set up to our west. While this most recent ridge was able to build into New England, a cutoff was underneath keeping us in a more onshore flow. We may see a continuation of this pattern to start July. Models have another strong ridge to our west with another possible cutoff somewhere in the East.

 

Been a bit back and forth but you do have to consider the tendency of the northeast weakness - feel this may adjust north of that prog.  Time will tell

Avoided the showers yesterday and climbed up to 85.  Already 75/67 now.

Overnight guidance has this ULL/ cut off fleeing by Sunday evening with storms and clouds both today and tomorrow, as of now mostly sunny so expect temps to reach low-id 80s again.  We'll see if showers and clouds are more widespread tomorrow / Fathers day.  Beyond there Mon - Fri look hot with each day close to or exceeding 90 ahead of the next front Fri nd into next weekend. As we close out June 6/29 and into early July nation looks warm and ridging pushes more heat/above normal temps into the area.  Still think its warm and wet (storms) . Still need to watch pattern getting stuck up the tendency of late but looking more a concern north..

On 6/12/2016 at 9:26 AM, SACRUS said:

With just about 3 weeks to go the holiday will slowly start showing up on some long range forecasts

Past July 4th's  

 

Year....19...18...17...16...15...14...13...12....11....10...09...08....07....06...05....04...03...02...01...00...99...98...97...96...95...94....93
 EWR:..89...89...88...84...79...76...91...97...92...101...83...81....73...89...80...87...94...100...81....88...99...86...88...72...84...86...97
 LGA:...93...84...87...86...75...74...91....95...88....98....81...80....73...92...82...83...93...98....81....84...95...86...87...73...84...83...92
 TTN:..91...91...86...82...75...75...84....88...95....99....81...80....74...89...84...89...92...97....82....87...99...85...84...73...81...83...92
 JFK:...87...86...85...82...80...76....84...89...86....101...83...82....72...86..78...79...92...99....75....81...97...82...89...74...80...83...96
 NYC:..90...86...85...84...75...74...87....92...86....96....79...78....71...87...83...82...92...96....79....84...96...84...85...71...84...86...95

360 hours away and starting to show up on th elong range extended guidance.  ECM / GFS show warm above normal into the east and most of the country for that matter.  Will see how it progresses.

Down to 62 last night and up to 75/63 with  Partly sunny skies.  0.11 in the bucket yesterday.

More southerly flow next few days, means steamy, warm and potentially wet, slow moving storms.  Fri - Sun where the sun is out it'll shoot into the 80s and with Dewpoint temps in the upper 60s to low 70s be very uncomfortable.  Beyond there Mon (6/22) to Fri (6/26) very warm and with enough the opportunity to rack up a few 90(+) days between storms/showers.  Beyond there into the last few days of June and into early July suttle shift to more ridging showing up.  Lets see how it evolves.  Time to start the July 4th forecast.  Overall looks warmer on latest guidance in the long run similar to  Perhaps taking shape similar to Don's call in the long range (seasonal) warmer Jul-Aug..

Cool down;

6/13:
NYC: 75/59 (-4)
EWR: 77/58 (-4)
LGA:  77/60 (-3)
JFK:  73/59 (-3)
TTN: 74/57 (-4)