SACRUS

Looking like a gorgeous weekend (Fri 63 - tue 6/7) and start of early work week, before some unsettled weather arrives by mid next week and may linger. Temps capped in the upper 70s to low 80s the next 10 days or so. Its likely till fathers day weekend the next shot at summer heat (pegging Jun 17 as transition) / we'll see how the second half of June evolves.

5/31 EWR: 98 BLM: 96 PHL: 96 ACY: 95 New Brnswck: 95 JFK: 94 ISP: 93 NYC: 93 TEB: 93 LGA: 93 TTN: 92

5/31 EWR: 98 BLM: 96 PHL: 96 ACY: 95 New Brnswck: 95 JFK: 94 ISP: 93 NYC: 93 TEB: 93 LGA: 93 TTN: 92

1PM ROundup: EWR: 94 BLM: 93 New Brnswck: 93 JFK: 92 PHL: 91 NYC: 90 ACY: 90 TEB: 90 ISP: 90 LGA: 89 TTN: 89

10 AM Roundup - Hot Fun in the Summer EWR: 90 JFK: 88 BLM: 87 New Brnswck: 86 ISP: 86 TEB: 86 NYC: 85 ACY: 85 PHL: 84 LGA: 84 TTN: 83

Up to 86 here

5/23 EWR: 91 New Brnswck: 89 PHL: 89 TEB: 88 TTN: 87 LGM: 86 BLM: 86 ACY: 84 NYC: 84 ISP: 82 JFK: 80

5/23 EWR: 91 New Brnswck: 89 PHL: 89 TEB: 88 TTN: 87 LGM: 86 BLM: 86 ACY: 84 NYC: 84 ISP: 82 JFK: 80

Weekend coming into view and a matter of timing with the cut off ULL. Fri - Sun look cloudy and a bit unsettled with scattered storms. Once we clear the cutoff it may be off to the races for the next heat surge in the 5/31 - 6/2 period.

Today looking a bit better than initially forecast with more partly sunny obs for the brunt of the day, ahead of clouds later this evening. Cooler week ahead with more clouds than sunshine but not much rain through Thu. Warmer but likely wetter by the start of the long weekend Fri (27th) and Sat (28th), then Euro and GFS diverge for the second half of the weekend. The Euro build the ridge and brings the warmth/heat by Sun (29th) and Memorial Day (30th) with a more SW flow vs GFS with a bit of a cut off and onshore / wetter flow into Sun and maybe Memorial day. Will need to watch and see if the more onshore seasonal tendency trends on the latest model runs or if we see stronger ridge into EC.

5/22 EWR: 95 LGA: 92 BLM: 92 TEB: 91 PHL: 91 New Brnswck: 91 NYC: 89 TTN: 88 ACY: 87 JFK: 84 ISP: 84

5/22 EWR: 95 LGA: 92 BLM: 92 TEB: 91 PHL: 91 New Brnswck: 91 NYC: 89 TTN: 88 ACY: 87 JFK: 84 ISP: 84

http://synoptic.envsci.rutgers.edu/site/imgs/vis_nj_anim.gif 84/64 here and rising with more sun than clouds

Another 12 hours or so of warmth before cooling down Mon (May 23) - Wed (May 25), one day warmup Thu (26) then a bit wet stormy on Fri (27) / Sat (28). By next Sun (29) into Mon Memorial day (30) models showing much warmer - hot potentially now. Will see how it progresses. More clouds today than yesterday but many on their way to 90(+).

5/21 TEB: 98 PHL: 95 EWR: 95 New Brnswck: 94 ACY: 93 TTN: 92 LGA: 91 BLM: 91 ISP: 90 NYC: 90 JFK: 87

5/21 TEB: 98 PHL: 95 EWR: 95 New Brnswck: 94 ACY: 93 TTN: 92 LGA: 91 BLM: 91 ISP: 90 NYC: 90 JFK: 87

delayed but 1PM roundup EWR: 92 ACY: 92 PHL: 92 New Brnsck: 90 BLM: 89 TEB: 88 TTN: 87 ISP: 87 NYC: 87 LGA: 86 JFK: 86

11AM Roundup ACY: 89 BLM: 83 EWR: 82 PHL: 82 New Brnsck: 80 TTN: 80 ISP: 78 TEB: 78 JFK: 77 LGA: 76 NYC: 74

Sunny here and 76/69 First 90s look to be on their way for many. Memorial Day weekend looking a bit warmer on the latest guidance as well.

I think there will be potential similar to last year - thinking August may be the roaster this season.

beyond the heat Sat (May 21) and Sun (May 22) next shot at some quick heat (90s) would be Thu (May 26) as quick surge of heat moves through. Memorial Day weekend still a bit iffy rain wise. Heat wise the ceiling looks to be low 80s (max). Beyond there slight hint of heat signal in the Jun 4th period GFS and other guidance hints at strong ridge into the GL/OV but could see onshore along coast. Far out there but something to track as well as any tropical development in GOM/W-FL.

Heat signal continues May 20 - 23 (ish) timeframe. Meanwhile 168 hours prior to the potential first 90s, its currently quite gloomy

2022 Projections 90 (+) degree days. Core heat August, but overall warm into extended season Ranges PHL: 37 - 40 EWR: 35 -38 TTN: 27 -30 LGA: 26 - 29 ACY: 31 - 34 TEB: 38 - 40 NYC: 21 - 24 JFK: 12 - 15 ISP: 11 - 14 New Brunswick: 37 - 40 Specific: EWR: 35 NYC: 21 LGA : 29 PHL: 40

http://synoptic.envsci.rutgers.edu/site/imgs/vis_nj_anim.gif