SACRUS

It'll still be interesting if Helene (to be) truly avoids bringing rains to the area. THis can go from quite dry to very wet with a few changes in the flow.

The GOM system now with a grater than 60% of development.

63 / 55 low level clouds with some scattered showers having moved through DE/SNJ. Clear out and warms up to upper 70s / near 80. Continue to have a struggle honing in on where the cut off and any subsequent remnants from the GOM tropical storm. The period Tue - Fri still the time to watch for the next rains in the area. Overall warmer the final week of the month.

Highs: EWR: 83 New Brnswck: 82 PHL: 81 JFK: 81 TTN: 81 ACY: 81 TEB: 79 NYC: 79 BLM: 77 LGA: 77 ISP: 73

Records: Highs: EWR: 90 (1940) NYC: 95 (1895) LGA: 89 (1940) JFK: 85 (2016) Lows: EWR: 39 (1956) NYC: 40 (1871) LGA" 43 (1956) JFK: 42 (1962) Historical: 1894 - A heavy chicken house, sixteen by sixteen feet in area, was picked up by a tornado and wedged between two trees. The hens were found the next day sitting on their eggs in the chicken house, with no windows broken, as though nothing had happened. (The Weather Channel) 1894: A late season severe weather outbreak occurred across northwest Iowa, south central Minnesota and southwestern Wisconsin during the late evening hours. Several communities were impacted by this outbreak with an estimated 55 to 65 deaths, and in additional 300 injuries. The strongest tornado was an estimated F5, which tore through the counties of Kossuth, Hancock, Winnebago in Iowa, and Faribault in Minnesota. 1924 - A couple of tornadoes, one rated F4 and the other F5, tore paths of devastation through Eau Claire, Clark, and Taylor Counties in Wisconsin. The death toll was 18 and 50 people were injured. 1924: A couple of tornadoes, one rated F4 and the other F5, tore paths of devastation through Eau Claire, Clark, and Taylor Counties in Wisconsin. The death toll was 18 and 50 people were injured. 1938 - A great hurricane smashed into Long Island and bisected New England causing a massive forest blowdown and widespread flooding. Winds gusted to 186 mph at Blue Hill MA, and a storm surge of nearly thirty feet caused extensive flooding along the coast of Rhode Island. The hurricane killed 600 persons and caused 500 million dollars damage. The hurricane, which lasted twelve days, destroyed 275 million trees. Hardest hit were Massachusetts, Connecticut, Rhode Island and Long Island NY. The ""Long Island Express"" produced gargantuan waves with its 150 mph winds, waves which smashed against the New England shore with such force that earthquake-recording machines on the Pacific coast clearly showed the shock of each wave. (David Ludlum) (The Weather Channel) 1938: On this day, one of the most destructive and powerful hurricanes in recorded history struck Long Island and Southern New England. This Category 3 Hurricane was traveling at 47 mph when it made landfall near Bellport, New York. This storm caused at least 600 deaths and left approximately 63,000 homeless. 1954 - The temperature at Deeth, NV, soared from a morning low of 12 degrees to a high of 87 degrees, a record daily warm-up for the state. (The Weather Channel) 1987 - Tropical Storm Emily, which formed in the Carribean the previous afternoon, caused considerable damage to the banana industry of Saint Vincent in the Windward Islands. Unseasonably hot weather continued in Florida and the western U.S. Redding CA and Red Bluff CA, with record highs of 108 degrees, tied for honors as the hot spot in the nation. (The National Weather Summary) 1988 - Thunderstorms produced high winds and locally heavy rain in the southwestern U.S. One thunderstorm in west Texas produced wind gusts to 86 mph at Dell City completely destroying an airport hangar. A Cessna 150 aircraft housed within the hangar was flipped over and snapped in two. Thunderstorms produced large hail in east central Utah, while snow blanketed some of the higher elevations of the state. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1989 - Hurricane Hugo slammed into the South Carolina coast about 11 PM, making landfall near Sullivans Island. Hurricane Hugo was directly responsible for thirteen deaths, and indirectly responsible for twenty-two others. A total of 420 persons were injured in the hurricane, and damage was estimated at eight billion dollars, including two billion dollars damage to crops. Sustained winds reached 85 mph at Folly Beach SC, with wind gusts as high was 138 mph. Wind gusts reached 98 mph at Charleston, and 109 mph at Shaw AFB. The biggest storm surge occurred in the McClellanville and Bulls Bay area of Charleston County, with a storm surge of 20.2 feet reported at Seewee Bay. Shrimp boats were found one half mile inland at McClellanville. (National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

7 days projection a touch wetter

Such blocking will make for more strung out dry or wet conditions where the cut off and any tropical systems wind up.

Dep through 9/20 LGA: -1.7 NYC: -.7 EWR: -.1 JFK: + .6

74 / 57 variable cloudy. Dry streak continues and more warmer spread. The wet at the end of the dry tunnel perhaps in site Wed - Fri. Blocked up pattern may target a cloudy rain area over the northeast by then. Overall warmer beyond there.

Last rain by site LGA: 9/7 (0.32) NYC: 9/7 (0.24) JFK: 9/7 (0.18) EWR: 9/7 (0.08) Prior to this 8/30

Highs: PHL: 85 EWR: 84 JFK: 84 TTN: 83 TEB: 82 New Brnswck: 82 NYC: 81 ACY: 81 BLM: 80 LGA: 80 ISP: 77

Records: Highs: EWR: 92 (1983) NYC: 93 (1983) LGA: 90 (1983) JFK: 85 (1997) Lows: EWR: 44 (1979) NYC: 44 (1993) LGA: 46 (1979) JFK: 41 (1979) Historical: 1845 - A tornado traveled 275 miles across Lake Ontario, New York and Lake Champlain. (Sandra and TI Richard Sanders - 1987) 1909 - A large and deadly Category 3 hurricane made landfall near Grand Isle, Louisiana during the late evening hours. The states of Louisiana and Mississippi showed catastrophic damage resulting in 371 deaths and $265 million in damage 1909: A large and deadly Category 3 hurricane made landfall near Grand Isle, Louisiana during the late evening hours. The states of Louisiana and Mississippi showed catastrophic damage resulting in 371 deaths and $265 million in damage (2010 USD). 1926 - A hurricane which hit Miami, FL, on the 18th, pounded Pensacola with wind gusts to 152 mph. Winds raged in excess of 100 mph for four hours, and above 75 mph for 20 hours. (The Weather Channel) 1967 - Hurricane Beulah moved into South Texas, and torrential rains from the hurricane turned the rich agricultural areas of South Texas into a large lake. Hurricane Beulah also spawned a record 115 tornadoes. (David Ludlum) 1983 - The temperature at West Yellowstone MT plunged to six degrees below zero, while the temperature at San Francisco CA soared to 94 degrees. (The Weather Channel) 1987 - Afternoon and evening thunderstorms produced severe weather in Oklahoma and west Texas. In Oklahoma, a thunderstorm at Seiling produced three inches of rain in one hour, golf ball size hail, and wind gusts to 60 mph which collapsed a tent at the state fair injuring nine persons. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1988 - Showers and thunderstorms produced locally heavy rains in central Wyoming, and snow in some of the higher elevations. Casper WY reported 1.75 inches of rain in 24 hours, and a thunderstorm north of the Wild Horse Reservoir produced 1.90 inches of rain in just forty minutes. 1989 - Hugo jilted Iris. Hurricane Hugo churned toward the South Atlantic Coast, gradually regaining strength along the way. Tropical Storm Iris got too close to Hugo, and began to weaken. A cold front brought strong and gusty winds to the Great Basin and the Southern Plateau Region, with wind gusts to 44 mph reported at Kingman AZ. (The National Weather Summary) 2005 - Hurricane Rita tracked through the Florida Straits and just south of the Florida Keys. Winds were sustained at tropical storm force at Key West, where peak winds gusted to 76 mph.

81 / 60 partly cloudy. Looks like a nice weekend coming up and through Monday before potential break in the dryness between Tue - Sat next week, upper low / trough move through.

Highs: EWR: 87 JFK: 87 PHL: 87 New Brnswck: 85 TEB: 85 TTN: 85 LGA: 85 ACY: 84 ISP: 84 NYC: 84 BLM: 83

Tropics (GOM) the focus in the next 7 days

Weekly rain back to nil

Hung up stuck up patterns yielding scenarios leaning to a cutoff near the northeast later next weekend and weekend potentially or more of the same sustained overall dry - perpetual onshore flow.

83 / 53 more sun than projected. Mid 80s today, maybe the warmest to next spring. Onshore entourage continues keeping it near normal overall the next week. We'll see if any of the potential tropical system in the GOM and Upper low bring the rain. https://cdn.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES16/ABI/SECTOR/eus/02/GOES16-EUS-02-1000x1000.gif

68 / 63 cloudy and light showers scattered. Some showers / rain perhaps steadier rain along the cost / eastern areas otherwise 0.25 - 0.75 for most over the next few days. Cloudy / humid, warmer side of normal. Pokes of sun Thursday near 80 , cloudy with showrs working south on Friday. Clear/dry out for the weekend with the persistent onshore flow. Could be cloudy 5 of next 7 days. By next Wed / Thu (9/25) next shot at rain and wtach any tropical systems in the GOM potentially ride up the coast. Matter of when the dry reversal happens and is it in a big way.

Highs EWR: 81 JFK: 81 TEB: 80 PHL: 80 NYC: 79 ISP: 79 New Brnswck: 78 TTN: 78 ACY: 77 LGA: 77 BLM: 72

Records: Highs: EWR: 95 (1991) NYC: 93 (1991) LGA: 95 (1991) JFK: 90 (1991) Lows: EWR: 44 (1950) NYC: 45 (1986) LGA: 48 (1986) JFK: 48 (1958) Historical: 1932 - Concord NH was drenched with 5.97 inches of rain in 24 hours to establish a record for that location (16th- 17th). (The Weather Channel) 1963 - Nearly two and a half inches of rain fell at Yuma AZ in 24 hours. It was the most intense rain for Yuma during the period between 19S09 and 1977. (The Weather Channel) 1965 - A storm produced a band of heavy snow across parts of Wyoming. Totals of 23 inches at Rawlins and 20.7 inches at Lander easily surpassed previous snowfall record totals for so early in the season. (15th-17th) (The Weather Channel) 1987 - Thunderstorms produced large hail, damaging winds, and heavy rain in the northeastern U.S. Heavy rain in southwestern Pennsylvania forced evacuation of twenty homes along Four Mile Run Creek, near Darlington. Harrisburg PA established a record for the date with 2.11 inches of rain. A cold front in the central U.S. brought freezing temperatures to parts of Montana and Wyoming. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1988 - Early in the morning a tornado hit Kelly Air Force Base in San Antonio, TX, injuring three persons and causing twenty-eight million dollars damage. A second tornado on the northwest side of San Antonio caused six million dollars damage, and a third tornado in Bexar County killed one person and injured another. Thunderstorms associated with Hurricane Gilbert spawned a total of forty-seven tornadoes in a two day period, with forty of those tornadoes in central and south central Texas. (Storm Data) (The National Weather Summary) 1989 - Hurricane Hugo hit the Virgin Islands, producing wind gusts to 97 mph at Saint Croix. Hurricane Hugo passed directly over the island of Saint Croix causing complete devastation and essentially cutting off the island from communications. A storm surge of five to seven feet occurred at Saint Croix. The only rain gauge left operating, at Caneel Bay, indicated 9.40 inches in 24 hours. Hurricane Hugo claimed the lives of three persons at Saint Croix, and caused more than 500 million dollars damage. A ship, Nightcap, in the harbor of Culebra, measured wind gusts as high as 170 mph. A cold front brought high winds to the Great Basin and the Rocky Mountain Region, and thunderstorms along the cold front produced wind gusts to 66 mph at Yellowstone Park WY. (Storm Data) (The National Weather Summary) 2004 - The remnants of Hurricane Ivan submerged Pittsburgh in 5.95 inches of rain in one day. That is the most rainfall Pittsburgh has seen in a 24-hour period since records began in 1876.

Departures thru 9/16 JFK: -1.1 EWR: -1.7 NYC: -2.2 ISP: -2.3 LGA: -2.4

When does this stuck up pattern get a laxative , early october . beyond this?

If the deluge doesnt get us this week, wait another

67 / 60 clouds and some sun. What could be the last dry day of the stretch with no rain. More humid , warm near 80 in the warmer spots otherise upper 70s. Wed - Thu, showers and we'll see if the steady rain is aimed along the coast or stays offshore. Clouds linger Thu before ridge builds on top and high pressure forces NE flow clearing out Fri and a cooler weekend. Stuckup-ish pattern linger into next week - watching tropics in the GOM and subsequent remnants or low long the EC in the period. 9/17 - 9/19: Clouds, showers watch for potential steady rains 9/20: dries out / warm 9/21 - 9/24: Coole NE Flow - dry 9/25 - 9/29 : Watch tropics, low