SACRUS

WWD (Cape May) : 3.18 and couting (started rainig 5AM)
ACY: 
DOV:: 1.45

DOV: 0.99
ACY: 0.68 last hour and still pouring

77/73 as clouds have moved in from the SE to NW.  Rain to about Barnegat Lt House and moving north quickly.  Widespread 2 - 4 inches of rain from the cut off ULL that became Fay.  Well modeled on the Euro from last week.  Once we clear fay humid and steamy weekend and if enough sun more 90s and fuel for some storms sat and sun.  Mon - Tue we clear out the trough but still in a very warm airmass.  By 7/15 a very strong ridge will anchor into the Mid West and push heights and heat into the northeast. First push of heat peaks with upper 90s and some century mark r Thu - Sat  (7/16 - 7/18) ahead of a front by next Sun  (7/19).  Ridge looks to rebuild ad Western Atlantic Ridge builds west again in the 7/20 - 7/24 (way out there) period.  ECM and GFS have 850 temps >16 through 7/20, before brief cool down to 12c - 14c air, followed by high heat 7/21 and beyond the long range forecast.   Believe EWR, LGA, PHL, JFK will approach and perhaps exceed 100 a few times in the overall period, recent rains may hinder the park and other areas.  Flow looks solidly W / SW but still need to watch fairly consistent storms.  Night time lows could rack up some upper 70s and 80 degree minimums.  Have to see if we evolve for like 2013 / 2017 where heat fizzled by the second week of August or we follow more 2016/ 2012 where August continues hot.

7/9

PHL: 94
LGA: 91
TTN: 91
TEB: 89
New Brnswck: 89
NYC: 89
EWR: 88
ACY: 87
BLM: 86
JFK: 86
ISP: 85

On 4/26/2011 at 9:17 AM, SACRUS said:

 

2020:

PHL: 12 (April: 0; May: 0  ; June: 5 ; Jul: 7 ; Aug:  ; Sep:  ; Oct:  )
EWR: 9  (April: 0; May:  0; June: 5 ; Jul: 4  ; Aug:  ; Sep: ; Oct:  )
TTN: 11 (April:0 ; May:  0; June: 4; Jul: 7 ; Aug: ; Sep: ; Oct:  )
LGA: 10 (April: 0; May: 0; June: 5 ; Jul: 5; Aug: ; Sep:  ; Oct: )
ACY: 9 (April: 0; May: 0 ; June: 5  ; Jul: 4 ; Aug:  ; Sep: ; Oct: )
TEB: 6 (April: 0; May: 0 ; June: 2 ; Jul: 4  ; Aug: ; Sep: ;  Oct: )
NYC: 6 (April: 0; May: 0 ; June: 2 ; Jul: 4; Aug:  ; Sep: ; Oct:  )
JFK: 3 (April: 0; May:0 ; June: ; Jul: 3 ; Aug:  ; Sep: ; Oct:  )
ISP: 1 (April: 0; May:0 ; June:  ; Jul: 1 ; Aug: ; Sep: )
New Bnswk: 9 (April:0 , May: , June: 4, July: 5; Aug:  ;Sep: ; Oct :)

89 degree days;

New Brnswick: 4
ACY: 1
TEB: 4
LGA: 4
TTN:1
EWR: 1
PHL: 2
BLM: 1
JFK:1
NYC: 1

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

 

7/9

PHL: 94
LGA: 91
TTN: 91
TEB: 89
New Brnswck: 89
NYC: 89
EWR: 88
ACY: 87
BLM: 86
JFK: 86
ISP: 85

11AM Rounup

LGA: 87 / 70 

ACY: 85 / 73
PHL: 84 / 70
BLM: 83 / 72
TEB: 83 / 73
New Brnswck: 83  / 74
EWR: 83 / 73 
NYC: 83 / 71 
ISP: 82 / 73
TTN: 81 / 73
JFK: 80 / 74 

CNJ : 86 / 73

10AM Roundup

LGA: 84 / 70
ACY: 83 / 72
ISP: 81 / 71
EWR: 81 / 74
NYC: 81 / 72
TEB: 81 / 73
PHL: 81 / 73
New Brnswck: 80 / 74
BLM: 80 / 76
JFK: 78 / 74
TTN: 78 / 72

CNJ: 80 / 73

 

Jul precip so far

EWR: 3.07
TEB: 3.04
New Brnswck: 1.99
ISP: 1.06
NYC: 0.72
TTN: 0.53
JFK: 0.52
LGA: 0.42
PHL: 0.25
 

77/74 here in Havana (I mean CNJ).  Low clouds burning off with a general S/SE flow.  Very warm airmass >18c (850 temps) should allow 90 degree readings in places that stay sunny away from the coast.  The storm that could be Fay will bring 2 - 4 swath of rains Fri PM into Sat AM PM.  Clear things out Sunday and begin the warmup as ridge builds over the Mid West and Mid Atalntic / Northeast 7/15 - D12 and beyond.  Western Atlantic ridge builds west and may hook with the MW ridge and enhance heights the week of the 7/19.  Perhaps the hottest airmass of the season and in a few years.  Could push triple digits in LGA, EWR, JFK, PHL, TTN.  Does look to include regular storms which should help keep things wetter.  Pushing a hot July and w'll see if we go more 2013 / 2017 like which was followed by a cooler / wetter August or do we continue the hot run like 2016,2012 and keep the wamrth into August,

7/8

PHL: 91
New Brnswck: 90
TTN: 90
LGA: 89
EWR: 86
BLM: 87
ACY: 87
TEB: 86
JFK: 84
ISP: 84
NYC: 83

On 4/26/2011 at 9:17 AM, SACRUS said:

 

2020:

PHL: 11 (April: 0; May: 0  ; June: 5 ; Jul: 6 ; Aug:  ; Sep:  ; Oct:  )
EWR: 9  (April: 0; May:  0; June: 5 ; Jul: 4  ; Aug:  ; Sep: ; Oct:  )
TTN: 10 (April:0 ; May:  0; June: 4; Jul: 6 ; Aug: ; Sep: ; Oct:  )
LGA: 9 (April: 0; May: 0; June: 5 ; Jul: 4; Aug: ; Sep:  ; Oct: )
ACY: 9 (April: 0; May: 0 ; June: 5  ; Jul: 4 ; Aug:  ; Sep: ; Oct: )
TEB: 6 (April: 0; May: 0 ; June: 2 ; Jul: 4  ; Aug: ; Sep: ;  Oct: )
NYC: 6 (April: 0; May: 0 ; June: 2 ; Jul: 4; Aug:  ; Sep: ; Oct:  )
JFK: 3 (April: 0; May:0 ; June: ; Jul: 3 ; Aug:  ; Sep: ; Oct:  )
ISP: 1 (April: 0; May:0 ; June:  ; Jul: 1 ; Aug: ; Sep: )
New Bnswk: 9 (April:0 , May: , June: 4, July: 5; Aug:  ;Sep: ; Oct :)

89 degree days;

New Brnswick: 3
ACY: 1
TEB: 3
LGA: 4
TTN:1
EWR: 1
PHL: 2
BLM: 1
JFK:1

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

7/8

PHL: 91
New Brnswck: 90
TTN: 90
LGA: 89
EWR: 86
BLM: 87
ACY: 87
TEB: 86
JFK: 84
ISP: 84
NYC: 83

9 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

The heat is coming 

Its been around although this seems to be and having staying power.  A

77/73 Florida Feel.   Low clouds burning off but already storms into EPA (mostly NE PA) right now.  Yesterday anyone north i-195 was low / mid 80s with ares just south (TTN) near or at 90.  Warm and wet (Florida-like) pattern continues the next 4 days.  Today steamy but clouds should hinder widespread 90s but also may inhibit a Monday replay.  Thursday is a beach day much like Tuesday perhaps a tinge warmer as 850 temps are near 20C.  By Friday  lat morning / early afternoon, as had been well modeled,  the low should ride the coast from DE/MD into LI and provide a swath of rains to make up the May - Jun deficit 2 - 4 inches of rain (locally more) this is in addition to the 2 - 3 we have had the last 7 days. Storm pulls out by Sat afternoon.

Beyond that warm and less wet as we get to Sunday 7/12 through Tue 7/14 with mainly upper 80s - near 90.  Park needs some time to dry out.  By 7/15 very strong ridge building into the GL, Mid West and Northeast.  Western Atlantic ridge building west to o in the period will enhance heights perhaps ner 600 Dm over the Mid west. Between 7/15 and at least 7/20 could be hottest air- mass of the season.  Perhaps EWR and others may see the return of triple digits in this period.  Hve to watch anything undercutting the ridge but that would likely be towards the southeast.  Tropical acitivity may also become more active.

July precip totals

TEB: 3.02
New Brnswk: 2.12
EWR: 1.92
NYC: 0.73
TTN: 0.53
JFK: 0.51
LGA: 0.41

7/7

TTN: 90
PHL: 88
ACY: 86
EWR: 83
NYC: 82
JFK: 82
TEB: 82
BLM: 82
New Brnswck: 82
LGA: 81
ISP: 75

1 minute ago, forkyfork said:

WAR retrograde signal showing up toward day 10. i've posted before that it's the only way we'll get any extended heat this year a la july 2013

There is some guidance with a few runs showing this in the 7/15 - 7/20 period starting D 7 or 8.  Some prior runs showed very strong ridge building into the mid west 600 DM, perhaps thats the linkage needed to kick the weakness and onshore tendences.  Even with that we are running warm (above to much above) that would push it further..  

Steam bath days are here.

Steamy 77/71 off of a warm low of 69 here.  Partly cloudy ENE wind flow should cap temps in the upper 80s (max) if we have enough sun and less active than yesterday (monday) but some pm fun along the coast.   Wed looks to be more stormy land with enough sun like Monday could make a run at 90 and add fuel to storms (further erasing the dryness from May/Jun).  Thursday a more tame day  and good beach time again temps near 90 well see if recent storm rains slows temps beating guidance.

  The Sub tropical ULL (whatever it my be at the time it passes) should ride coastal DE to LI Fri PM to Sat PM bringing more rains. Once we clear the ULL Sat we should less wet and more warm Sat - Tue. 

Looking beyond , by 7/15 looks to start another hot period.  Recent runs building ridge into the Mid West now showing possible linkage with the Western Atlantic ridge in the period. We'll see how it evolves but a very hot airmass over mid section is spreading into the region by mid month.  Can we pull off a century mark reading outside of LGA this year.  This is the period to watch. 

Daily precip 

TEB: 2.89
LDJ: 0.68
New Bnswck: 0.66
EWR: 0.58
NYC: 0.54
BLM: 0.27
PHL: 0.27
JFK: 0.03

7/6

NYC: 96
LGA: 96
TEB: 94
ACY: 94
EWR: 94
TTN: 93
BLM: 92
New Brnswk: 92
PHL: 92
JFK: 91
ISP: 91

On 4/26/2011 at 9:17 AM, SACRUS said:

 

2020:

PHL: 10 (April: 0; May: 0  ; June: 5 ; Jul: 5 ; Aug:  ; Sep:  ; Oct:  )
EWR: 9  (April: 0; May:  0; June: 5 ; Jul: 4  ; Aug:  ; Sep: ; Oct:  )
TTN: 8 (April:0 ; May:  0; June: 4; Jul: 4 ; Aug: ; Sep: ; Oct:  )
LGA: 9 (April: 0; May: 0; June: 5 ; Jul: 4; Aug: ; Sep:  ; Oct: )
ACY: 9 (April: 0; May: 0 ; June: 5  ; Jul: 4 ; Aug:  ; Sep: ; Oct: )
TEB: 6 (April: 0; May: 0 ; June: 2 ; Jul: 4  ; Aug: ; Sep: ;  Oct: )
NYC: 6 (April: 0; May: 0 ; June: 2 ; Jul: 4; Aug:  ; Sep: ; Oct:  )
JFK: 3 (April: 0; May:0 ; June: ; Jul: 3 ; Aug:  ; Sep: ; Oct:  )
ISP: 1 (April: 0; May:0 ; June:  ; Jul: 1 ; Aug: ; Sep: )
New Bnswk: 8 (April:0 , May: , June: 4, July: 4; Aug:  ;Sep: ; Oct :)

89 degree days;

New Brnswick: 3
ACY: 1
TEB: 3
LGA: 3
TTN:1
EWR: 1
PHL: 2
BLM: 1
JFK:1

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

7/6

NYC: 96
LGA: 96
TEB: 94
ACY: 94
EWR: 94
TTN: 93
BLM: 92
New Brnswk: 92
PHL: 92
JFK: 91
ISP: 91

1 minute ago, donsutherland1 said:

At 9 am, the temperature in Central Park was 84 degrees. The 0z GFS MOS showed a high of 86 degrees and the 6z GFS MOS showed a high of 85 degrees. Today will likely see the temperature approach or exceed 90 degrees in Central Park. As has become fairly common over the past few weeks, perhaps on account of the continuing rainfall deficit, the MOS will fall at least several degrees short of the actual high temperature.

Lots of very warm air around even to the north so its been taking  while for the typical backdoor effects to settle in 850 temps near 18C right now SW winds.