SACRUS

66/48 off a low of 44. On the way to 80(+) for the first time since Sep 10th. Warmer times ahead the next 6 days before we cool down to end the month. Weekend - would keep an eye to see if any rains get here and if clouds linger Saturday, otherwise warm and dry. Sun (9/27) and Mon (9/28) sneaky warm ahead of the front which looks to come by Tuesday 9/29. Cooler air 9/30 - 10/5. Jury still out on the brunt of the cool and if we see it for more than a day or so but think we are not as cool as this past airmass. Warmer times beyond 10/6 with west coast ridging breaking down and heights coming up into the east. Have to see if models are right and this change is sustained. 9/23 - 9/30 : dry and warmer than normal warmest days (9/23, 9/25, 9/27) 10/1 - 10/6 : Cooler than normal coldest days (10/3 - 10/5)

ECM has similar type cold on 12z guidance while prior runs and ensembles keep the brunt of the cold to the west in the 0ct 1 - oct 5th period with maybe a day of the real chilly air coming in.

9/22 EWR: 75 LGA: 74 JFK: 74 New Brnswck: 74 PHL: 74 BLM: 73 ACY: 73 TEB: 73 TTN: 72 NYC: 71 ISP: 70

Coldest night/morning here at 37.5 and likely the coolest readings through at least Oct 4th. Clouds from Teddy reaching LI and offshore NJ. Warmup underway as breach the 70s today and get near ot into the 80s Wed - Fri. Weekend may be more cloudy thh an initially though and perhaps wetter too - will need to see. By early next week Mon - Tue (9/28 / 29) front and trough approaching but ahead of that warmer humid and rainy . Loos like the real cool air arrives Oct 4 but may the brunt of the cool/cold may stay west and not match this recent cool in the area other than a day. Warmup quickly behind the trough towards the week of the 5th. 9/22 - 9/29 : Warmer than normal 9/30 - 10/3 : cooler 10/4 - 10/6 : Much cooler 10/7 : warmer times ahead.

down to 46/42 here .

9/21 EWR: 67 JFK: 67 New Brnswck: 67 PHL: 67 LGA: 66 TEB: 66 ACY: 65 TTN: 65 NYC: 65 ISP: 64 BLM: 63

51/37 off a low of 40 (no frost again). Coldest temps now past us till at least Oct 5th. Wam-rup underway slowly today and more pronounced Wed (9/23) - Tue (9/29). Max temps likely in the mid / upper 70s most days but 80 - 85 range best chance Thu (9/24) and more sneaky warmth Mon (9/28 and Tue 9/29). Lots of Southerly and onshore in the period then clouds may limit warmth later this weekend and early next week. West coast ridge builds in the 9/26 - 10/2 period and forces a trough into the Plains, Mid West, GL coldest staying west of the area in this period. The trough does look to split into the southeast and a piece swings through the east coast 9/30 - 10/2 which could see the first meaningful rain since 9/10. Way beyond West Coast has dibs on ridging with troughing into the mid section could mean a wetter forst week or two of next month but overall near or warmer than normal. Going from a 3 week dry period to very wet seems a logical progression for us,

9/20 PHL: 66 ACY: 65 EWR: 65 New Brswck: 65 JFK: 65 NYC: 65 LGA: 64 TEB: 64 TTN: 63 ISP: 63 BLM: 62

June 1st was only down to 46 here. Dont recall that but interesting.

Look to go 16 days between measurable precip (as it looks now) Sep 10 - Sep 25/6. We'll see if the rains can get up here next weekend or is it more towards the 28th/29th.

58/33 from a low of 40.4 (no frost). 36 more hours of this very cool airmass before moderation on Tue. Much warmer Wed - Fri (low 80s in the warmer spots). Flow may go predominantly more southerly later next weekend into next week (9/27). Deep trough into the GL, MW, MV and swinging through the southeast and east coast towards the beginning of next month but moderated airmass wont be nearly as cool as this for next 2 weeks.

Is the gfs too warm later this week/ next weekend? either way once past monday , much warmer starting Wed. Might be the coolest for a long while.

43 here already happy november

9/19 JFK: 66 PHL: 66 LGA: 65 EWR: 65 ACY: 65 New Brnswck: 65 BLM: 64 ACY: 65 TEB: 64 NYC: 63 TTN: 63 ISP: 63

Updated last few days 9/17 EWR: 77 LGA: 77 ACY: 77 TEB: 76 ISP: 76 PHL: 76 New Brnswck: 76 NYC: 75 BLM: 74 JFK: 74 TTN: 74 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 9/18 EWR: 73 JFK: 72 PHL: 72 LGA: 71 TEB: 71 BLM: 71 New brnswck: 71 ACY: 71 NYC: 70 TTN: 70 ISP: 69

Down to 43 last night and up to a chilly but sunny 60 now. Cool next 3 days as well highlighted here. Warm up by Wed (9/23) and overall warmer near or above normal looks likely to take us to the end of the month. We'll see how much of the stronger warmth can get into the east timing -wise that looks between Friday (9/25) and Mon (9/28).

Coldest should be Sun night - Monday. 850s forecast at <0C. Temps rebound by 9/23 - 9/25 before next cool down 9/26-9/27. Back and forth with chance for cutoff ULL towards next month into the MW.

9/17 LGA: 73 EWR: 73 New Brnswck: 73 ACY: 73 PHL: 73 JFK: 72 BLM: 72 TTN: 71 ISP: 71 TEB: 71 NYC: 70

Up to a smoky 72 / 55 here now.

52/50 off a low of 44. Warmer the next 48 hours 70s today and perhaps 80s tomorrow with enough sun before the big / longer cool down arrives Fri night. Sat (9/19) - Tue (9/22). Another brief warmup looks likely by Wed (9/23) ahead of a back and forth cooler by Fri (9/25). The month looks to end on a warmer side as ridging pushes into the east. Overall the next week looks dry and extending beyond. Teddy near Halfax or New England?

9/15 JFK: 70 ACY: 68 PHL: 68 LGA: 67 EWR: 67 ISP: 67 TEB: 67 New Brnswck: 66 TTN: 66 NYC: 66 BLM: 65

Was down at 45 earlier today between 345 and 4AM this morning. Warm it up Wed and Thu before next cold front brings the coolest air since (today) starting Sat (9/19) through next Tues (9/22). Looks like moderation and then a much warmer close to the month. Also guidance may look wetter come Saturday.

9/14: EWR: 78 ACY: 77 BLM: 77 TEB: 77 LGA: 77 PHL: 76 NYC: 75 New Brnswck: 75 ISP: 75 JFK: 75 TTN: 74

Sat (9/19) - Tue (9/22) do look solidly below avg. -5 to -7 each day.

72/ 57 and real nice dry breeze. Warm and dry today as the front moves through and sun comes out. Mid / upper 70s. Tuesday cooler with highs near 70 and lows 50s. Warmer Wed/ Thu highs near 80 and perhaps low 80s on Thu if we see enough sun. Friday (9/18) the next front arrives and we cool off to levels not seen since May. 9/19 - 9/24 cooler than normal but lookng mainly dry vert Fall-ish airmass. 30s inland Sunday or next monday? Longer range looks to end the month on a warm note pushing the overall avg positive.