SACRUS

6/26 00z EURO : Thu (6/30) June closes hot with the start of the seasons first heat wave/ hat trick, for most, especially in the heat locations. Fri (7/1) and Sat (7/2) heat peaks we see >18c 850s perhaps near 20C before a cold front comes through Saturday overnight (7/2) into Sunday (7/3). Models have a kinder, drier and sunnier July 4th now, with 80s and great weather. Sunday (7/3) would be the stormy not so beachy day. GFS similar theme moves the front through slowly on Sunday (7/3) and clear out for a gorgeous July 4th.

Show how strong that heat from the Plains/Great Lakes, Ohio Valley and central Gulf was. Only the strong blocking buffeted the sustained version of that into the region. Great stats as always BW. The record heat in Europe and Gulf coast that hit this year had also tied or beat records in years where we were very cool /wet in June. We'll see where July takes us. Stormy or more dry and brief heat interludes or more sustained pieces coming east.

Another hot one on tap with more low / mid 90s perhaps one of the hotter spots in Central / Northeast NJ can top 97. Front arrives overnight into Mon (6/27). We'll see how much we can score from showers and storms, it had looked like a possible soaker earlier. Beyond there, cooler Tuesday (6/28) and warming 6/29 (likely uppers 80s shy of 90 but outside chance of one of the hotter spots can start a 90 stretch). Thu (6/30) June closes hot with the start of the seasons first heat wave/ hat trick, for most, especially in the heat locations. Fri (7/1) and Sat (7/2) heat peaks we see >18c 850s perhaps near 20C before a cold front comes through Saturday overnight (7/2) into Sunday (7/3). Models have a kinder, drier and sunnier July 4th now, with 80s and great weather. Beyond that (7/5)- guidance a bit hazy as to weather (whether) the Rockies ridge build and sends trough and frequent storms into the north east or the flow and heights are a bit flatter and we are warm with storm chances and pieces of heat come east by 7/6-7/8. Time will tell. Hot in the city today.

4th Of July: 12Z Euro has front coming through Sat (7/2) night into Sun (7/3) after heat Thu (6/30) - Sat (7/2). Euro now with storms on the 4th as well with front slow to pass through. WIll see how it progresses. 18Z GFS much drier for the fourth with the brunt of the storms Sat evening / Sun morning.

6/25 EWR: 96 New Brnswck: 92 TEB: 91 PHL: 91 NYC: 90 ACY: 90 LGA: 90 ISP: 89 TTN: 89 BLM: 89 JFK: 88

6/25 EWR: 96 New Brnswck: 92 TEB: 91 PHL: 91 NYC: 90 ACY: 90 LGA: 90 ISP: 89 TTN: 89 BLM: 89 JFK: 88

Noon ROundup EWR: 90 TEB: 88 BLM: 87 New Brnswck: 87 NYC: 86 TTN: 86 ISP: 86 JFK: 86 TTN: 85 LGA: 85 ACY: 84

11AM ROundup: EWR: 88 JFK: 86 New Brnswck: 86 ISP: 84 TEB: 84 LGA: 83 ACY: 83 PHL: 83 TTN: 82 NYC: 81

Past Junes EWR 90 degree days. EWR should be 5 by the 30th much in line with the past 12 years excluding 2010 and last year. June: 2021 : 13 2020: 5 2019: 4 2018: 5 2017: 5 2016: 3 2015: 4 2014: 2 2013: 4 2012: 6 2011: 4 2010: 13

10AM roundup EWR: 86 JFK: 84 ISP: 82 New Brnswck: 82 BLM: 82 TEB: 81 PHL: 80 ACY: 80 LGA: 79 TTN: 79 NYC: 78

Could pick up a decent soaker on Monday (6/27) for the area with the front coming through.

Mostly sunny and temps pushing or already 80 in spots.

4th of July : 06Z 6/25 GFS has cool front clearing through Sat night (7/2) into Sun (73) setting up a nice Monday 4th of July. while the 6/25 00z ECM is slower and arrives Sun (7/3) lingering into the 4th of July. Will need to work out those details/timing.

60 hours of some heat with many areas getting into the low 90s today and Sun (6/26). Front comes through early enough Monday (6/27) to spoil the hat trick (heat wave) for many. Friday came close to starting one in many places but tipped out in the upper 80s. Cooler Tue (6/28) - Wed (6/29) before the seasons first official heatwave looks likely, especially for the hot spots sas we end June and open the long July 4th weekend. 850 temps look to range >16c by Thu Jun 30th and >18c Fri Jul 1st and Sat Jul 2nd. 4th of July : GFS gas cool front clearing through Sat night (7/2) into Sun (73) while the ECM is slower and arrives Sun (7/3) lingering into the 4th of July. Will need to work out those details/timing. Beyond there its looking like another blast of the western furnace is on tap by the 7th. First 10 days of July look normal / bas above normal with opportunity for >3 days of 90+ on the current guidance.

Euro a bit warmer/hot now the weekend with extension into Jul 4th, GFS a bit cooler but warm / seasonal normal overall the weekend and into the 4th. Will hone in as we get closer.

Warmer / hottter times ahead this weekend into Monday. 90s for many, especially the hot spots Sat (6/25) and Sun (6/26). Some mid 90s in Sunday in the NE-NJ / C corridor. Trough pushes front through on Mon (6/27) with rain showers/storms lingering into Tuesday (6/28). Cooler/near normal by Wed (6/29). Warmup begins as heights rise to close Jun 6/30, with heat potential to start the long weekend and perhaps into July 4th. Beyond there we'll see how strong or hung up the front gets in the 7/5 timeframe.

Latest guidance Euro has heat just prior to the Jul 4th for the Fri-Sun (weekend 7/1-7/3) then a bit cooler but overall drier look for the 4th. GFS less hot more normal looking.

Clouds / showers SE/ESE flow the next 36 hours, keeping it cool as the furnace remains west of the area. Warmer overall days 3 - 10 as Flow comes back around Fri (6/24)-Sun (6/26) where the heat bleeds in for 60 or so hours Sat and Sun with 90s for the hotspots perhaps others. By Mon (6/27) cold front moves through and back more towards or a bit below normal Tue (6/28) and Wed (6/29) before warmer / some heat returns to close June and open July. Way out there but euro looks hot / perhaps very hot brief surge 6/30 - 7/2 or 3. We'll see how it evolves or if the seasonal tendency keeps wekness along the northeast or the pattern bucks. July 4 forecast time.

Down t 48 last night here and some streaming fast moving clouds NNW to SSE this morning. Warmer / unsettled starting Tuesday pm (6/21) through the week and into this weekend perhaps Sat (6/25). Euro has the cut off backing into the area this weekend while the gfs a bit less impactful. Either way the furnace reached the onshore wall and is halted Tue - Thu, although should we get any clearing 850 temps are in the >16C for a period Wed (6/22) and Thu (6/23) but it looks cloudy. Weekend a bit unknown pending on cut off and any continued unsettledness. Longer range into the close of the month and July - we'll see how it evolves and if the tendencies for ridge being centered too west for any longer blasts of heat or eastward expansion of an overall warm to hot pattern commences and if the W.A.R can hook at some point in July as in prior recent years. http://synoptic.envsci.rutgers.edu/site/imgs/vis_nj_anim.gif

Wall to wall sunshine - water those pots after the wind saturday and low DT's.

Down to 49 last night. Prepping the candy for Halloween. Bright sunshine today and temps upper 70s to near 80 for the warmer spots, Monday (6/20) continues to build on today with temps near or low 80s. Perhaps with full sunshine at the peak of the daylight temps can over perform a bit these next 36 hours. Then into a bit of unsettled as ridge fires in the plains and tries to push east. Storms/clouds will limit the heat Tue (6/21) and Wed (6/22) before we turn more onshore for the period 6/22 into next weekend. Ridge center retreats from near St Louis to the TX/NM border later in the week with ECM cuts off low in the EC weakness and it meanders under into the Coastal Carolinas before moving or dissipating next weekend. GFS more into and off the coastal New England. I guess if there is one day with enough sun then can pull a bit of a sneaky warm to hot it would be Wed but it looks cloudy with some showers and storms around. Beyond there towards the close of June and open of July, the furnace out west has rebuilt and is pushing east with next shot to watch for heat. Onto tracking July 4th weather coming into day 15 on the longer range guidance. Will the W/ Atl Ridge make an appearance.

Coolest since May 9 or 10th on tap this evening. Good night for Monday night football, I mean baseball.

67/51 off a high of 93 yesterday. Clouds pushing into the area from NYS. Cooler 60 hours before warmer/humid and some unsettelled weather moves in Tue (6/21) through next Fri (6/24) as ridge refires into the Plains and we are fringed. Euro cut off a ULL in the weakness along the east coast and its onshore city for 72 hours next week while the low meanders near the coastal Carolinas and we have onshore/clouds and storms. That bucked the prior trend of pushing the heat in for 24/36 hours on previous 6/17 12z guidance. We'll see where we go today but the seasonal tendency would argue another battle with onshore along the NE and EC. Beyond there next weekend 6/25 look to see flow go flatter and some of the heat come through. Plains ridge is a bit flatter as we open July on the longer range guidance so normal/bias warm would be the call as it stands now for the open of July.

We'll see but today's guidance looks similar for next wed (6/22) and Thu (6/23) as today with a blast of heat.