SACRUS

9/26 PHL: 78 ACY: 77 LGA: 77 ISP: 76 JFK: 76 TEB: 76 TTN: 75 EWR: 75 New Brnswck: 75 NYC: 74 BLM: 73

71/60, mostly cloudy with some breaks of sun, mainly east and showers to the west in WNJ and EPA. More clouds and some breaks of sun today will make it tough to crack 80 unless some spots see longer stretches of sun (could happen like it did yesterday in EWR/LGA). Sunday - less showers but some lingering clouds and dew points coming up more, highs again in the mid 70s to low 80s in the warmer sunnier spots. More of the same Mon and Tue but with any longer breaks of sun we can see sneaky low to mid 80s. Brunt of the cool stays west through this period as trough dings down the plains and GL into the south. Rain followed by cool. Front will crawl along the east cost Tue - Thu with a wave of low pressure riding up through the areas on Thu (10/1) could see heaviest rain since Sep 11th. Beyond that cooler air flows in 10/2 - 10/6. Coldest temps likely 10/4 - 10/6 before we warm up by 10/7 and into the second week of the month. West coast ridge does look to want to rebuild, need to watch but trough looks poised to stay into the plains/ GL, warmer along the coast. Way beyond WC ridge should get displaced east to close the last 1/3 of the month. 9/26 - 9/30: Warmer than normal, minimal rain, max low 80s warm minimums +5 to +7 above normal 9/30 - 10/1: Rain >inch possible (first time since 9/11). 10/2 - 10/6 : cooler than normal, inland frost 10/5 - 10/6? 10/7 : warming up

9/25 LGA: 80 EWR: 80 TEB: 79 New Brnswck: 78 NYC: 77 BLM: 77 TTN: 76 ISP: 76 PHL: 75 JFK: 75 ACY: 73

58/58 here foggy/misty and clouds above the fog. Looks mostly clouds through early afternoon before we can see some sun around 1PM. With enough sun it should poke into the upper 70s perhaps low 80s. Warm again tomorrow and partly to mostly cloudy but little if any rain. Sun - Tue with enough sunshine and 850 MB temops >15C will see max temps in mid perhaps an upper 80 in the warm spots but clouds look plentiful with night time lows in the 60s perhaps a 70 spread in between in LGA/JFK / upper 60s NYC/EWR. Front comes through at some point Tue (9/29) and Wed (9/30). Cooler 10/1 - 10/6 but again not likely as cold as this past period 19th - 23rd. Brunt of cold is west of the region into the Plains, GL and OV down into the Mississippi valley. A piece of the deeper cool does look to come through Oct 4 - 6th in a moderated fashion. West cast ridge looks to break down even if for a period by Oct 7th with warmer times in store. Way beyond does ridge relocate or rebuild in the west? 9/25 - 9/30 : Much warmer than normal mainly drier. Max temps Sun (9/26) - Tue (9/29). 10/1 - 10/6: Cooler to much cooler (10/4 - 10/6). Still think the coldest stays west of the area. Rain chances 10/1-10/2 with reinforced front/ trough moving through.

9/24 EWR: 79 LGA: 78 ISP: 76 JFK: 76 New Brnswck: 76 TEB: 76 NYC: 75 BLM: 75 PHL: 75 TTN: 74 ACY: 73

63/55 and mostly cloudy. Cloudy today should keep temps below or near 80 but still dry. Warmer than normal continues through Mon (9/27) with Sun 9/27 being potential warmest day of past 3 weeks. The next front and deep trough into the GL and then east coast 9/30 - 10/6. Front swings though Tue 9/29/ Wed (9/30) some heavy rain possible especially northern areas as it looks now. Coldest looks to stay mainly west of the area with the brunt of the chilliest readings probably coming through the area 10/3 - 10/5 before moderation. 9/24 - 9/28 : warmer / drier than normal. Warmest days 9/25, 9/27 9.29 - 9/30: front (rain) potential heavy rain ,, first in 3 weeks or since 9/10-11. 10/1 - 10/6 : cooler than normal, coldest readings likely west with 1-2 days 10/3-10/4 before moderation. 10/7 : warmer times ahead

9/23 EWR: 83 JFK: 82 LGA: 81 BLM: 81 New Brnswck: 81 PHL: 81 TEB: 81 TTN: 81 ISP: 80 ACY: 80 NYC: 79

66/48 off a low of 44. On the way to 80(+) for the first time since Sep 10th. Warmer times ahead the next 6 days before we cool down to end the month. Weekend - would keep an eye to see if any rains get here and if clouds linger Saturday, otherwise warm and dry. Sun (9/27) and Mon (9/28) sneaky warm ahead of the front which looks to come by Tuesday 9/29. Cooler air 9/30 - 10/5. Jury still out on the brunt of the cool and if we see it for more than a day or so but think we are not as cool as this past airmass. Warmer times beyond 10/6 with west coast ridging breaking down and heights coming up into the east. Have to see if models are right and this change is sustained. 9/23 - 9/30 : dry and warmer than normal warmest days (9/23, 9/25, 9/27) 10/1 - 10/6 : Cooler than normal coldest days (10/3 - 10/5)

ECM has similar type cold on 12z guidance while prior runs and ensembles keep the brunt of the cold to the west in the 0ct 1 - oct 5th period with maybe a day of the real chilly air coming in.

9/22 EWR: 75 LGA: 74 JFK: 74 New Brnswck: 74 PHL: 74 BLM: 73 ACY: 73 TEB: 73 TTN: 72 NYC: 71 ISP: 70

Coldest night/morning here at 37.5 and likely the coolest readings through at least Oct 4th. Clouds from Teddy reaching LI and offshore NJ. Warmup underway as breach the 70s today and get near ot into the 80s Wed - Fri. Weekend may be more cloudy thh an initially though and perhaps wetter too - will need to see. By early next week Mon - Tue (9/28 / 29) front and trough approaching but ahead of that warmer humid and rainy . Loos like the real cool air arrives Oct 4 but may the brunt of the cool/cold may stay west and not match this recent cool in the area other than a day. Warmup quickly behind the trough towards the week of the 5th. 9/22 - 9/29 : Warmer than normal 9/30 - 10/3 : cooler 10/4 - 10/6 : Much cooler 10/7 : warmer times ahead.

down to 46/42 here .

9/21 EWR: 67 JFK: 67 New Brnswck: 67 PHL: 67 LGA: 66 TEB: 66 ACY: 65 TTN: 65 NYC: 65 ISP: 64 BLM: 63

51/37 off a low of 40 (no frost again). Coldest temps now past us till at least Oct 5th. Wam-rup underway slowly today and more pronounced Wed (9/23) - Tue (9/29). Max temps likely in the mid / upper 70s most days but 80 - 85 range best chance Thu (9/24) and more sneaky warmth Mon (9/28 and Tue 9/29). Lots of Southerly and onshore in the period then clouds may limit warmth later this weekend and early next week. West coast ridge builds in the 9/26 - 10/2 period and forces a trough into the Plains, Mid West, GL coldest staying west of the area in this period. The trough does look to split into the southeast and a piece swings through the east coast 9/30 - 10/2 which could see the first meaningful rain since 9/10. Way beyond West Coast has dibs on ridging with troughing into the mid section could mean a wetter forst week or two of next month but overall near or warmer than normal. Going from a 3 week dry period to very wet seems a logical progression for us,

9/20 PHL: 66 ACY: 65 EWR: 65 New Brswck: 65 JFK: 65 NYC: 65 LGA: 64 TEB: 64 TTN: 63 ISP: 63 BLM: 62

June 1st was only down to 46 here. Dont recall that but interesting.

Look to go 16 days between measurable precip (as it looks now) Sep 10 - Sep 25/6. We'll see if the rains can get up here next weekend or is it more towards the 28th/29th.

58/33 from a low of 40.4 (no frost). 36 more hours of this very cool airmass before moderation on Tue. Much warmer Wed - Fri (low 80s in the warmer spots). Flow may go predominantly more southerly later next weekend into next week (9/27). Deep trough into the GL, MW, MV and swinging through the southeast and east coast towards the beginning of next month but moderated airmass wont be nearly as cool as this for next 2 weeks.

Is the gfs too warm later this week/ next weekend? either way once past monday , much warmer starting Wed. Might be the coolest for a long while.

43 here already happy november

9/19 JFK: 66 PHL: 66 LGA: 65 EWR: 65 ACY: 65 New Brnswck: 65 BLM: 64 ACY: 65 TEB: 64 NYC: 63 TTN: 63 ISP: 63

Updated last few days 9/17 EWR: 77 LGA: 77 ACY: 77 TEB: 76 ISP: 76 PHL: 76 New Brnswck: 76 NYC: 75 BLM: 74 JFK: 74 TTN: 74 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 9/18 EWR: 73 JFK: 72 PHL: 72 LGA: 71 TEB: 71 BLM: 71 New brnswck: 71 ACY: 71 NYC: 70 TTN: 70 ISP: 69

Down to 43 last night and up to a chilly but sunny 60 now. Cool next 3 days as well highlighted here. Warm up by Wed (9/23) and overall warmer near or above normal looks likely to take us to the end of the month. We'll see how much of the stronger warmth can get into the east timing -wise that looks between Friday (9/25) and Mon (9/28).

Coldest should be Sun night - Monday. 850s forecast at <0C. Temps rebound by 9/23 - 9/25 before next cool down 9/26-9/27. Back and forth with chance for cutoff ULL towards next month into the MW.

9/17 LGA: 73 EWR: 73 New Brnswck: 73 ACY: 73 PHL: 73 JFK: 72 BLM: 72 TTN: 71 ISP: 71 TEB: 71 NYC: 70