SACRUS

6/28 EWR: 99 LGA: 96 TEB: 95 BLM: 94 New Brnswck: 94 PHL: 94 TTN: 92 NYC: 92 ACY: 90 JFK: 86 ISP: 85

6/28 EWR: 99 LGA: 96 TEB: 95 BLM: 94 New Brnswck: 94 PHL: 94 TTN: 92 NYC: 92 ACY: 90 JFK: 86 ISP: 85

Western Atlantic Ridge pumping heights and heat / humidity. So far much more clear than Saturday and it looks to be off to the races and full steam ahead the next days. Mid - upper 90s (in the warmer spots). 850 temps >18c through Thu pm. 81/72 here. Pop up showers (Florida style) the next few days could produce some scattered heavy rains between the high heat. Most area should tack on 3 or 4 more 90 degree days. GFS and ECM still not fully aligned on timing and extent / duration of the front but both bring the brunt of the storms into the area by Fri (7/2) and into Sat (7/3) as the Western Atlantic Ridge is pushed east and subsequent front and cold front come through. Jul 4th could be mainly storm or rain free but still a bit unstable. Some heavier rains and will all be dependent if the ridge is stubborn to move out and front gets hung up or if it can clear and stall in the south (GA/N-S C) Longer range heights look to balloon again towards the middle of next week. Looks to be warm to hot again with more 90s by Jul 8th.

12z ECM continues to show the front coming through Fri - Sat as the ridge is tugged east with rain Fri and Sat. GFS seems to be trending slower with the front and now has rain in two parts Sat and Sin night (late) and monday. Still plenty of time to track this front. Otherwise looking warm but stormy

Rare day with 90 at NYC and 89 at LGA. South winds and clouds muddied LGA. Full 'steam' ahead.

6/27 EWR: 95 TEB: 92 BLM: 91 PHL: 91 New Brnswck: 91 NYC: 90 TTN: 90 LGA: 89 ACY: 86 JFK: 82 ISP: 82

6/27 EWR: 95 TEB: 92 BLM: 91 PHL: 91 New Brnswck: 91 NYC: 90 TTN: 90 LGA: 89 ACY: 86 JFK: 82 ISP: 82

More breaks now but till plenty of clouds around. 11AM 84 / 73 CNJ.

1966 was blazing away on this date with more 100s around the city and NJ 101 in EWR

Between the pop up deluges and the slow front (7/2 - 7/3) could see some hefty totals by 7/4.

Low level clouds burning off now. 78/72 here should be a fast rise once we get into the sun. http://synoptic.envsci.rutgers.edu/site/imgs/vis_nj_anim.gif

Likely a break from 90s 7/2 - 7/6

Season of the Western Atlantic Ridge commencing. The heat is on and humidity. Florida weather for the next 5 days Sun (6/27) - Thu (7/1). Pop showers and rain could out some heavy amounts scattered around the area over the next 5 days. Look for sun showers too. But while sunny temps low to mid 90s and perhaps upper 90s in the warmer spots. Dewpoints in the low 70s or higher should yield lows in the upper 70s and 80s in LGA, NYC, JFK potentialluy. Winds will be mainly S-SW. GFS and ECM now a bit more aligned as the W Atlantic Ridge pushes east with subsequent front in the 7/2 - 7/4 period. Right now both clear the area by late on Saturday (7/3) and allow for a mainly dry warm/nice Jul 4th. Beynond there heights resume to build as ridging builds back into the East coast and we may be soaring again with heat and humidity by the 8th. Overall warm to hot but plenty of precip mixed in between.

8 days away ECM and GFS have the W Atlantic ridge backing east between 7/2 - 7/5 and with it a subsequent front and possible cut off low. Timing to be narrowed down as these ridges can be stubborn to retreat and hung up front tendencies. OH Valley and GL area look to be the wettest but front will need to clear by some point and right now at this 8 day range both models show the brunt of the rain and showers 7/2-7/3 and Sunday the fourth drying out.

6/26 EWR: 86 TTN: 85 PHL: 85 New Brnswck: 85 LGA: 85 BLM: 83 TEB: 83 NYC: 83 ACY: 82 JFK: 80 ISP: 78

Some showers now south to north

Florida style pattern has arrived. Dewpoints into or near 70s. Clouds probably in the way of many 90s today but more sun starting Sunday will get most there. Season of the Western Atlantic Ridge. Ridge backs west over the area through early July with high heights and 850 temps >18c, plenty of mid 90s and some upper 90s on the sunnier days, but expect (much like Florida) storms to fire each day Sun (6/27) - Thu (7/1). Beyond there, a split and a reverse ECM now maintains ridging stronger and front and any closed off low well west into the Ohio valley, while the GFS has the ULL come through between 7/2 - 7/4. Id say take the compromise, thie W Atlantics ridge means business and beyond the July 4th weekend it looks to remain warm to hot overall.

Transitioned from a Southern California style weather to a Florida like one has begun with much more humid flow developing today. Western Atlantic Ridge builds west over the area Sat (6/26) - early July with the highest heat/humidity looking like Mon (6/28) Thu (7/1). Storms likely popup routinely each day, similar to Florida, but the heat is on. Mid / upper 90s in the hotter spots. Beyond there split with the ECM and GFS in the W Atlantic Ridge shifting east in the 7/2 - 7/5 period. GFS maintains strong ridge with trough. and subsequent front much further west into the Ohio valley/ GL. ECM has the W Atlantic ridge moving east and torugh closing off and passing through the area 7/2 - 7/5. Beyond there it looks to return to a warmer to hot flow. Right now a compromise between the GFS and ECM may be best with the ridge holding the trough back towards PA/OH.

Thanks. Funny timing on the reply at the same time. Looks like 1933 / 1911 were also perhaps like 2013 type short but strong heat. 22 the exception. This year looks poised to join the bunch. Perhaps long duration as well.

Do we have any monthly summaries from those earlier summers 33,22,11,00? Jun - Jul - Aug averages.

9 days away. 12z guidance ECM would imply cut off and rain Jul 2-3 before clearing on the 4th and warming up the rest of the week. GFS has the cut off further into the Ohio valley much more west than the ECM. its a matter of the western atlantic ridge pulsing and if the front is stuck west or closes off and slides east into the area. Right now looking warm and potentially stormy but id side more with the gfs or middle ground with worst of the steady rains west of the area,

I think we looking at mid 90s next week perhaps 97 or so at EWR. We'll see how it trends but could be some clouds and storms fairly routinely. Mean while back at the ranch - just a truly nice day today 75 and sunny at 1:20

California weather one last day before we head to a Florida-like pattern tomorrow. The season of Western Atlantic Ridge is coming. ECM / GFS have a very warm S/SW flow through their runs and what should see pieces of the western heat factory merge east in the later part of the runs. It looks to transition warm to humid Friday and Saturday and pending on clouds and storms some 90s starting Saturday (6/26). Sun (6/27) - Thu (7/1) low to mid 90s 850 temps surging to >18c Tue (6/29) / Wed (6/30). With such a humid flow storms can popup each day. Way beyond the pattern looks to remain warm to hot into early July including the 4th of July weekend.

48 hours of California like weather before Miami pattern arrives. Dry, sunny and very nice out mid 70s to near 80 today (wed) and Thu (6/24). Transition to a more southerly / humid flow and warmer temperatures. Western Atlantic Ridge builds back west 6/27 into July. Humid and warm - hot a times. 90s potential 6/28 into July. Increased rain / storms chances in a Miami style pattern. Way beyond it continues to look overall warm to hot as the W Atalntic Ridge looks to grow along the east coast, need to watch as pieces of the western heat migrate east and merge with the eastern ridge.

Jul 14 - Jul 21 , 2013 saw 7 days of mid 90s - low 100s in the area. That expansion saw the ridge push to 600DCM into the area.