SACRUS

Western Atlantic Ridge slipping east and with it comes 2-3 days of storms and some heavy rains. Clouds about an hour to two away, storms coming in this PM and period of storms and rain next 48 - 72 hours should put up some nice totals. Saturday looks cloudy and much cooler where highs could be stuck in the 60s and in the extreme EWR 103 (Wed) and maybe mid 60s (Sat) a near 40 degree difference. Models still showing an unsettled Sunday morning but overall Fourth of July looks like light / widely scattered shower AM and then some in the evening. The last day of the of fourth of July weekend (Monday) starts a return to warmth and heat / humidity as heights come up. Piece of the western heat which the southwest / rockies heat dome pulses up, pushes east Jul 6 - 9, humidity returns as heights increase with more 90s likely. Tues and Wed look very hot. More widespread pop up storms Tue night (7/6) - Wed (7/7) and Thu (7/8) before we watch remnants or possibly intact Elois. Overall warm to hot pattern.

Saturday high may be 40 degrees cooler than today

That ridge may steer tropical antics towards the SE coast / Florida. Overall warm to hot continues. S

12z ECM / GFS continue with theme of improving second haf of the weekend for the Fourth and Monday (observed). Still a bit unsettled Sun but looking like scattered showers earlier and improving throughout the day.

6/30 EWR: 103 LGA: 100 NYC: 98 New Brnswck: 98 TEB: 98 BLM: 98 PHL: 97 TTN: 96 ACY: 94 JFK: 90 ISP: 90

6/30 EWR: 103 LGA: 100 NYC: 98 New Brnswck: 98 TEB: 98 BLM: 98 PHL: 97 TTN: 96 ACY: 94 JFK: 90 ISP: 90

Jul 17-18 2013: 97, 98 EDIT September , 8 2015: 97 96 in both 2015, 2016

95/73 here, outside chance of 98--99 or 100 CNJ

I haven't peaked at the 12z packages but last night trended towards more scattered showers / mainly dry for the fourth, even Sat didnt look that bad. Outside of clouds.

Hot Town Summer Sizzling in the city Noon roundup EWR: 98 LGA: 95 NYC: 94 BLM: 93 New Brnswck: 93 TEB: 93 ACY: 91 JFK: 90

Hot town summer in the city. Mid / upper 90s on tap today. High launch pad may get LGA 100 or > and EWR again. Western Atlantic ridge begins to move offshore today with one more day of high heat. Storms should be more prevalent today as heat dome is displaced where it peaked at 598DM ridge . Slow to move front and storms Thu (7/1) - Sun (7/4) - morning should bring heavy rains over the 60 - 72 hour period 2 - 4 inches of rain. Models kinder for the fourth of July as brunt of the rain and storms falls Thu - Sat morning, then unsettled showers Saturday and sunday morning. At this point models may be lining up to salvage the 4/5th. Not completely rain free / but looks more scattered and light. July 6 and beyond - heights and heat rise and resume with more 90s and humidity the work week as piece of the high heat out west bleeds east ahead of the Western Atlantic Ridge expansion. Need to watch some tropical system near FL early next week and if the re-expanding W . Atl Ridge steers it up the EC. Overall warm to hot summer continues.

6/30 records (LGA, EWR chances) PHL: 100 (1964) EWR: 99 (1964) JFK: 99 (1964) NYC: 99 (1964) TTN: 98 (1964) LGA: 97 (1964) New Brnswck: 97 (1964)

850 temps shooting to >20c tomorrow PM and Thu (pending on clouds) can make for more chances at EWR and LGA for the century mark.

12z ECM has brunt of rain Thu-Fri with storms and rain along the main front, then unstable as cut off ULL closes over PA and bring showers. May be able to salvage fireworks as the rain tapers off later in the moring / early afternoon, but a far cry from the true summer heat / beach weather we are currently experiencing. Monday the 5th looks much nicer then back to the heat by Tue

6/29 EWR: 102 LGA: 98 TEB: 98 PHL: 95 NYC: 95 BLM: 95 New Brnswck: 95 ACY: 93 TTN: 93 JFK: 90 ISP: 88

6/29 EWR: 102 LGA: 98 TEB: 98 PHL: 96 NYC: 95 BLM: 95 New Brnswck: 95 ACY: 93 TTN: 93 JFK: 90 ISP: 88

Dome (high pressure) Clockwise flow is very visible on the vis loop

Noon Round up EWR: 95 LGA: 94 New Brnswck: 93 NYC: 92 TEB: 91 BLM: 91 ACY: 90 TTN: 89 JFK: 89 PHL: 89 ISP: 86

overall warm to hot pattern break 7/1 - 7/4 then back to the heat next week once the front / ULL clear through.

Once passed the front/ ULL Jul 1 - 4th, heat rebounds by Jul 6th and it looks very warm - hot into the second week of Jul from this distance.

Heat is on and only looks like a break between next surge of ridging / heat. Mid / upper 90s today and tomorrow, perhaps 100 in EWR / LGA, may be close. Pop up storms possible later and more chances Wed. ECM and GFS now bring front through on Thu - Sat with cut off low staying west of the area and brining shower/ storms Sun (fourth). Still have to work out the timing but the RIdge is stubborn and that means extended unsettled weather 7/1 - 7/4. Not sure its a complete washout Sunday but looks very unstteled. Beyond there the heat returns next week as ridging and heat from the heat factory in the rockies and northwest traverses east. More 90s by Tuesday (7/6) with 850 temos >16 - 18C.

Hot in the city tonight 2200 LGA: 89 EWR: 88 NYC: 85 PHL: 85

6/29 Records EWR: 100 (1959) NYC: 101 (1934) LGA: 100 (1934) TTN: 100 (194) JFK: 99 (1959) New Brunswick: 98 (1959)

yes will do that over the weekend. If you can provide prior years that would be best.

12z ECM / GFS continue with brunt of storms/ rain coming throgh Fri - Sat. Fourth as of now looking potentially dry outside some morning storms. Fri - Sat not the best