SACRUS
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Everything posted by SACRUS
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0.89 in the bucket last night. Now 74 / 66 and DT dropping. Looks like a spectacular weekend shaping up. On to August thread for longer range ideas cool - humid/wed (8/5)- humid-heat-wet (8/7)
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Seeing the same trends and the model progression of the W . Atl Ridge expansion is one that looks to transition from cool/dry to humid/wet (Aug 5) then humid/hot/wet (Aug 8)
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On to August : Open 3 - 4 days cooler than normal, coolest open to August since 2013. The western atlanic ridge continues to be hinted at expanding west in the 8/5 and beyond timeframe. So the progression and extent of the westward movement will need to watch. Transition from dry and below average to humid and above normal and then some heat looks likely as we move into the next weekend (8/6). The ridge may build back slower and need to watch the boundary for hung up storms / rain before the heat.
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The dog days of summer coming in with a miniature Maltese this year. Cooler for a week or through 8/4. Once past today's rains it looks mostly dry and very pleasant. Fantastic summer weather. On to August : Open 3 - 4 days cooler than normal, coolest open to August since 2013. The western atlanic ridge continues to be hinted at expanding west in the 8/5 and beyond timeframe. So the progression and extent of the westward movement will need to watch. Transition from dry and below average to humid and above and then some heat looks likely as we move into the next weekend (8/6).
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7/28 EWR: 87 PHL: 86 ACY: 85 New Brunswck: 84 TTN: 84 JFK: 83 LGA: 82 TEB: 82 NYC: 81 BLM: 81 ISP: 81
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Friday would be the only outside chance for a 90 in the warmer spots if the advance (push) of the warmer air was delayed vs what models are showing. They show a push of 850 temos >16c overnight Thursday (7/29) into Friday (7/30) morning before the front comes through and dries us out / coold off. Then into the trough and coolest stretch (5 days) since May against the mean average. Onto August thread but both GFS and ECM continue second and third model cycle with humid / warm-hot pattern returning with the westward expanding W/ Atl Ridge in the 8/5 and beyond period with next potential chance at 90s. Its a matter of how that evolves to see how hot it can get. Right now the center of the ridge is anchored of the EC in the long range with a warm / humid Southerly flow. Id bet on humid and wet at this stage and temps bias warm before we can hone in on any spike in heat.
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7/27 EWR: 94 PHL: 94 ACY: 93 New Brnswck: 93 LGA: 91 TTN: 91 BLM: 91 TEB: 91 ISP: 89 NYC: 89 JFK: 88
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7/27 EWR: 94 PHL: 94 ACY: 93 New Brnswck: 93 LGA: 91 TTN: 91 BLM: 91 TEB: 91 ISP: 89 NYC: 89 JFK: 88
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7/26 EWR: 93 New Brnswck: 91 ACY: 91 PHL: 91 BLM: 90 JFK: 90 LGA: 90 TTN: 89 TEB: 89 ISP: 89 NYC: 88
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7/26 EWR: 93 New Brnswck: 91 ACY: 91 PHL: 91 BLM: 90 JFK: 90 LGA: 90 TTN: 89 TEB: 89 ISP: 89 NYC: 88
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Some of the urban/metro and CNJ areas should add 3 or more 90 degree days by Aug 1, but it is a fine line with the strongest heat just south and between the hotter days N'rly flow will cool/dry the area. ECM the opposite next week Aug 1 - 5 with one warm-hot day then some below normal days. Its 7-10 days away so we will see how it trends and if the stronger heat can bring more mid 90s to the hotter spots Tue (7/27). It seems when the heat comes by way of the Western Atlantic Ridge building west, there is a period of normal to below when the ridge retreats east, thats what we are in now between the Rockies ridge and the W. aTl Ridge. We'll see if EC ridging can make a come back and push the summer to the hotter side overall. 90 degree days are still on par with 2016/2012 tallies to this points so Junes big numbers helping in that department.
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Seems like a good forecast. Currently looking a bit back and forth with a fine line between some hot days and more /drier seasonal this week bias warm. Once to the weekend 7/31 through the first 5-6 days of August looks bias cooler than normal with a day or two mixed in hot. Beyond that the western ridge looks to expand east and perhaps the Wsetern Atlntc ridge noses west again.
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7/25 PHL: 88 BLM: 86 EWR: 87 ACY: 86 New Brnswck: 86 TTN: 85 TEB: 84 LGA: 84 NYC: 83 ISP: 80 JFK:80
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I am not sure if the image is cached (24 hours prior) for some reason but none the less some breaks in the mostly cloudy conditions approaching the area
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Next weekend looks interesting as the 00Z ECM 24 hours later has heat just south of the region and temps near 90 on Sunday 8/1 for a brief period. With still a week out you wonder if it trends more cooler (troughy) or if it corrects warmer.
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74/68 and .27 in the bucket from the earlier rains. Satellite does show more breaks in the clouds so we will see how warm it gets today. Warmer pattern today through Thu (7/29), with Tue perhaps being the hottest day with 850 temps >16c in parts and may allow the warmer spots mid to perhaps upper 90s range in the extreme. We are skirting the north edge of the heat and bit more ridging would mean stronger heat and cooler if the flow pushed more northerly. So could see a day (wed) back near normal before warmup ahead of the front. Beyond there a bit back and forth next weekend Fri (7/30) - Sun (8/1) where there looks to be cooler air followed by a brief return (12-24) hours of some heat and that looks like Sunday (8/1). Could be interesting with such a contrast of the heat and cooler weather near the regios. Beyond there Aug looks to open cooler before more heat from the west pushes east and we'll see if the W. Atlantic ridge builds west in the Wed 8/4 and beyond period.
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7/24 PHL: 86 EWR: 85 New Brnswck: 85 ACY: 85 NYC: 84 TTN: 83 TEB: 83 LGA: 83 JFK: 82 ISP: 81 BLM: 80
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Of the 2010, 99, 88, 77, 66, 55, 44, 33, 22,11 batch 2021 so far on the lower side after a strong start in June early July, culd make a comeback in Aug/Sep. EWR could get to 35(+) 90 degree days and other spots could get closer to 25-30. We'll see no strong / sustained heat (95+) the next 7 - 10 days, even though some warmer spots may grab a 95 this coming week.
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80 / 58 and a very nice summer day. Reminds me of the So Cal warmth. Tomorrow once we get through any storms shoudl start an (overall) warmer - hot period Sunday (7/25) - the next week. 850 temps looks to rise to >15c and some guidance brings in spatters of 18c in the period. On e rim of the ridge and heat spread from the west. Warmer spots should notch at least 4 90 degree days but the strongest heat is south of the region for the most part. There will be some interruptions of heat with the n/nnw flow mid week or late week before another brief surge of warmer to hot air later next weekend 7/30 and into early August. Then need to watch the W Atlantic Ridge and if the Rockies ridge can surge more heat east. Till then today should be a enjoyable one!
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7/23 EWR: 86 PHL: 85 New Brnswck: 85 BLM: 84 JFK: 84 NYC: 83 LGA: 83 ISP: 83 ACY: 83 TTN: 82 TEB: 81
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81/ 52 just tremendous weather right now.
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Great summer weather Fri / Sat before we warm back up Sun (7/25) - Thu (7/29) Strongest heat nearby (plenty of it feeding in from the Rockies ridge) but still plenty of >15C temps and W/NW flow should yield more 90s and perhaps one stronger heat day where the hot spots could touch mid / upper 90s. Beyond there cooler end to the month and we'll see if the W. Atlantic Ridge builds back west into the EC.
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7/21 ACY: 89 PHL: 86 EWR: 85 JFk: 85 BLM: 85 New Brnswck: 84 ISP: 83 TTN: 82 LGA: 82 TEB: 82 NYC: 80
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No the Western/Plains ridge will expand east and the immense heat will spread into the region. Strong heat (95+) with 850 MB temps ?18c will need to be tracked next week / end of July. In the extreme it could progress into an Aug 2001 opening,
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Judy Collins western smoke got in the way today 7/20 EWR: 90 LGA: 89 TEB: 89 ACY: 89 PHL: 88 New Brnswck: 88 BLM: 87 NYC: 86 JFK: 86 ISP: 86 TTN: 85
