SACRUS

https://cdn.star.nesdis.noaa.gov//GOES16/ABI/SECTOR/EUS/GEOCOLOR/GOES16-EUS-GEOCOLOR-1000x1000.gif

Little cut off system still spinning around and round. 79/67 here in CNJ and now partly sunny. Up to upper 80s in the warmer spots today not too influenced by onshore / clouds. The the heat is on (hottest 5 day Aug period since 2016 perhaps). Tue (8/10) through Sat (8/14) 90s for most mid to upper 90s in the hot spots and in the extreme an isolated century mark or two but id say chances are low. ECM has 850s peak at >18c Wed (8/11) and then near or >20c by Thu (8/12) - Sat (8/14). Sunday (8/15) front comes through but it looks warm/humid overall and more heat potential beyond there as E ridging rebuilds.

http://synoptic.envsci.rutgers.edu/site/imgs/vis_nj_anim.gif

74/64 NE winds and some breaks of sun. Cool visible satellite loop with system off shore spinning causing the onshore flow clouds and rain. The system should slowly pull north this afternoon. Pending on sunshine , highs should reach near or low 80s. Still some what of a NE flow stubborn tomorrow (Mon (8/9) but inland areas should see temps closing in on 90 in CNJ/NE-NJ etc. The heat is on Tue (8/10) through Sat (8/14) looks hot and humid with low 90s Tue (8/10) to mid 90s in the warmer spots as 850 temps peak >18c Wed (8/11) and neat 20c on Thu (8/12) through Fri and Sat(8/14). A cold front looks to come through next Sat evening / Sun (8/15) and break the heat for a couple of days, but overall warm to hot pattern looks to return mid month as ridging builds into the EC.

8/7 EWR: 91 New Brnswck: 90 LGA: 89 TEB: 88 BLM: 87 PHL: 87 TTN: 87 NYC: 87 ISP:85 ACY: 84 JFK: 83

8/7 EWR: 91 New Brnswck: 90 LGA: 89 TEB: 88 BLM: 87 PHL: 87 TTN: 87 NYC: 87 ISP:85 ACY: 84 JFK: 83

Warm - Humid - Hot pattern (Florida-style) the next 7 days or more. Clouds may muddy up and limit 90s today but the humidity is here. Tomorrow (8/ ) and Monday (8/9)are onshore a bit from weak upper low traversing through a weakness in the ridge but inland areas can grab some 90s. Tue (8/10) through Sat (8/14) wide spread 90s and high humidity. Peak of the heat looks Thu (8/12) through Sat (8/14) wit h 850 temps >18c and near 20C. Beyond there a cold front comes through next Sunday (8/15). But warming behind it looks likely.

8/6 EWR: 92 New Brnswck: 90 PHL: 90 LGA: 89 TTN: 89 ACY: 89 NYC: 88 BLM: 88 TEB: 88 ISP: 85 JFK: 84

8/6 EWR: 92 New Brnswck: 90 PHL: 90 LGA: 89 TTN: 89 ACY: 89 NYC: 88 BLM: 88 TEB: 88 ISP: 85 JFK: 84

81/65 and sunny. Should see 90s in the warmer spots again since July 27th. Some clouds tomorrow will likely limit 90s before clearing on Sunday but a weakness in the ridge may cause some onshore flow Sun and into Monday. As mentioned the warmer spots with less E/ NE flow will get to 90. By Tuesday (8/10) through Sat (8/13) looks to see the peak of this coming weeks heat. 850 tempx >18c by wed and near or >20c Thu (8/12) and Fri (8/13). Beyond there overall humid to warm with potential more heat in to the following week.

Book ends heat may make or break the summer towards the hotter ones. 90 degree days will get closer to the 2012, 2015, 2016, 2018 totals if the pattern evolves as being forecast.

Winds onshore today but a sTransition to Florida style pattern beginning. Progression is one thats a more southerly flow with humid / warm to hot but plenty of rain chances is a good bet. Friday (8/6) warmer on latest guidance and now 90s likely in the warmer spots. Trough lifts out saturday (8/7) and with it come clouds and some rain before sunday (8/8) if we clear out in time 90s are possible. Mon (8/8) through the next work week, Humid - Hot and id suspect routine storm chances - we'll have to see and hone in on the more active days in subsequent days. ECM and GFS have 805 temps >18c by Tue - Wed and peaking >20 Thu as the flow flattens and the heat out west breaks east for a period. Beyond there we'll need to watch the tropics. August looks to roll on warmer as we get to and beyond mid month.

Clouds and Easterly flow. Cool and cloudy next two days but we should start getting more southerly wind as the Western Atlantic ridge backs west and flow is much more humid 8/5 - 8/8/ Florida style pattern till Mid August starts Thursday. Progression remains the same Western ridge pushing trough into the east as the western atlantic ridge backs west 8/5 and beyond. Humid warm to hot with rain chances . Trough lifts out and flow flattens a bit and turns more SW by 8/8 and into next week. Last night guidance shows hint of smaller cut offs which can cause lots of rain and onshore flow that could limit the strong heat. Seems to be one NC/VA coast on some guidance Mon-Wed so will need to watch. Otherwise the heat from the west comes east and could offer the hottest temps since late June or in the extreme of the season . Multiple 90s chances and the overall warmth looks to continue into Mid month as of now.

67/59 after a low of 57. Another gorgeous day shaping up before the migration back towards a Florida style feel. Migration continues to look like cooler than normal 8/2 - 8/4 with Western Ridge forcing a tough into the EC. The Western Atlantic ridge is expanding west starting 8/5 and a warm / southerly humid flow develops. Trough / boundary is forced west of the area (close by) but still expect dew points to climb and daily rain chances through the coming weekend 8/8. Trough lifts out and flow flattens as ridging build along the EC and allows heat from the western heat factory to come east 8/8 through next week. ECM showing seasons longest and perhaps strongest heat signal next week. We'll see where the W. Atl Ridge positions and if rain / clouds muddy up a return to a sustained warm to hot pattern. Otherwise chance of 90s / heat starting 8.8.

https://cdn.star.nesdis.noaa.gov//GOES16/ABI/SECTOR/EUS/GEOCOLOR/GOES16-EUS-GEOCOLOR-1000x1000.gif

Cool down EWR: 7/30: 87/67 7/31: 81/61 JFK: 7/30: 86/66 7/31: 76/59 LGA: 7/30: 85/68 7/31: 79/64 NYC: 7/30: 82/67 7/31: 77/60

77/61 and clouds moving in. Back to some terrific weather Monday before a slow transition to much more humid weather returns mid / late week. West Coast Ridge gone wild pushing trough into the EC. Western Atlantic Ridge flexing back west and the EC or just west of there stuck in the middle between the two with a boundary hung up. That should translate to the progression; 8/4 - 8/8 : humid/ warm and wet with daily storm/rain chances and likely clouds - Florida-like 8/8 - next week : Trough lift but still some weakness and have to watch for some sor te of cut off , but with a flatter flow some of the heat from the west comes east into the area and offers the next shot at heat/90s. Some high heat index values and continued rain chances. Florida style back into the region. Tropics likely kick into return gear. SO once past the 4th of the below normal start it looks humid , wet and warm with some potential heat mixed in.

Current dewpoint : 48F

August 2016, 2014, 2013 all opened with a cooler than normal August. 16 saw heat come back week 2 and remain most of the rest of the month. 13 / 14 remained near or below normal with no signficant heat.

August to open cooler than normal and probably the coolest since 2013. This year's summer will be remembered by what happens in August after the hot start in June/early July then more wet/cooler last week or two and this coming week. Progression on guidance remain consistent and both the gfs and ecm are persistent with cooler opening Sun (8/1) through Wed/Thu (8/4) with strong Rockies Ridge and trough into the EC. Then as the Western Atlantic ridge expands west in the Thu (8/5) to Sun (8/8) period more southerly tropical flow with humidity and rain chances as the boundary is over or just west of the area as heights come up on the EC. SO more warm/humid and wet to very wet this period. By next weekend Sun (8/8) the trough is lifting out and the flow flattens and the western heat comes east and offers our next chance of heat / 90s. We'll see how humid and wet it remains but guidance still showing that second week of August with a transition back towards the heat.

Down to 52 last night with some California-like natural airconditioning over night. Some clouds moving through the area with mostly cloudy conditions in SNJ and more breaks C/N-NJ/NYC. IT should clear for most in the mid morning and make way for a glorious day and farewell to July. Low 80s dry and sunshine. BBQ - beach and pressure washing weather.

7/30 ACY: 88 PHL: 87 EWR: 87 JFK: 86 BLM: 86 ISP: 85 New Brnswck: 85 LGA: 85 TTN: 84 TEB: 82 NYC: 82

August looking to open cooler and drier through Thu (Aug 5) perhaps the coolest opening Aug since 2013. The W. Atlantic Ridge relocates west offshore and pumps southerly flow, so humid and warmer by the 5th and with it the boundary is left over or just west as the Western / Rockies Ridge roars and pushes the trough into the GL/OV. The W. Atl Ridge currently modeled to build west but not as far as the Jun / Jul progressions. So wet / humid Florida-like pattern for a few several days 8/5 - 8/8. The trough lifts out and flow flattens and the second week of August looks to offer the next chance at some 90s/heat but suspect we remain humid and with rain chances.

0.89 in the bucket last night. Now 74 / 66 and DT dropping. Looks like a spectacular weekend shaping up. On to August thread for longer range ideas cool - humid/wed (8/5)- humid-heat-wet (8/7)

Seeing the same trends and the model progression of the W . Atl Ridge expansion is one that looks to transition from cool/dry to humid/wet (Aug 5) then humid/hot/wet (Aug 8)