SACRUS

60 hours of some heat with many areas getting into the low 90s today and Sun (6/26). Front comes through early enough Monday (6/27) to spoil the hat trick (heat wave) for many. Friday came close to starting one in many places but tipped out in the upper 80s. Cooler Tue (6/28) - Wed (6/29) before the seasons first official heatwave looks likely, especially for the hot spots sas we end June and open the long July 4th weekend. 850 temps look to range >16c by Thu Jun 30th and >18c Fri Jul 1st and Sat Jul 2nd. 4th of July : GFS gas cool front clearing through Sat night (7/2) into Sun (73) while the ECM is slower and arrives Sun (7/3) lingering into the 4th of July. Will need to work out those details/timing. Beyond there its looking like another blast of the western furnace is on tap by the 7th. First 10 days of July look normal / bas above normal with opportunity for >3 days of 90+ on the current guidance.

Euro a bit warmer/hot now the weekend with extension into Jul 4th, GFS a bit cooler but warm / seasonal normal overall the weekend and into the 4th. Will hone in as we get closer.

Warmer / hottter times ahead this weekend into Monday. 90s for many, especially the hot spots Sat (6/25) and Sun (6/26). Some mid 90s in Sunday in the NE-NJ / C corridor. Trough pushes front through on Mon (6/27) with rain showers/storms lingering into Tuesday (6/28). Cooler/near normal by Wed (6/29). Warmup begins as heights rise to close Jun 6/30, with heat potential to start the long weekend and perhaps into July 4th. Beyond there we'll see how strong or hung up the front gets in the 7/5 timeframe.

Latest guidance Euro has heat just prior to the Jul 4th for the Fri-Sun (weekend 7/1-7/3) then a bit cooler but overall drier look for the 4th. GFS less hot more normal looking.

Clouds / showers SE/ESE flow the next 36 hours, keeping it cool as the furnace remains west of the area. Warmer overall days 3 - 10 as Flow comes back around Fri (6/24)-Sun (6/26) where the heat bleeds in for 60 or so hours Sat and Sun with 90s for the hotspots perhaps others. By Mon (6/27) cold front moves through and back more towards or a bit below normal Tue (6/28) and Wed (6/29) before warmer / some heat returns to close June and open July. Way out there but euro looks hot / perhaps very hot brief surge 6/30 - 7/2 or 3. We'll see how it evolves or if the seasonal tendency keeps wekness along the northeast or the pattern bucks. July 4 forecast time.

Down t 48 last night here and some streaming fast moving clouds NNW to SSE this morning. Warmer / unsettled starting Tuesday pm (6/21) through the week and into this weekend perhaps Sat (6/25). Euro has the cut off backing into the area this weekend while the gfs a bit less impactful. Either way the furnace reached the onshore wall and is halted Tue - Thu, although should we get any clearing 850 temps are in the >16C for a period Wed (6/22) and Thu (6/23) but it looks cloudy. Weekend a bit unknown pending on cut off and any continued unsettledness. Longer range into the close of the month and July - we'll see how it evolves and if the tendencies for ridge being centered too west for any longer blasts of heat or eastward expansion of an overall warm to hot pattern commences and if the W.A.R can hook at some point in July as in prior recent years. http://synoptic.envsci.rutgers.edu/site/imgs/vis_nj_anim.gif

Wall to wall sunshine - water those pots after the wind saturday and low DT's.

Down to 49 last night. Prepping the candy for Halloween. Bright sunshine today and temps upper 70s to near 80 for the warmer spots, Monday (6/20) continues to build on today with temps near or low 80s. Perhaps with full sunshine at the peak of the daylight temps can over perform a bit these next 36 hours. Then into a bit of unsettled as ridge fires in the plains and tries to push east. Storms/clouds will limit the heat Tue (6/21) and Wed (6/22) before we turn more onshore for the period 6/22 into next weekend. Ridge center retreats from near St Louis to the TX/NM border later in the week with ECM cuts off low in the EC weakness and it meanders under into the Coastal Carolinas before moving or dissipating next weekend. GFS more into and off the coastal New England. I guess if there is one day with enough sun then can pull a bit of a sneaky warm to hot it would be Wed but it looks cloudy with some showers and storms around. Beyond there towards the close of June and open of July, the furnace out west has rebuilt and is pushing east with next shot to watch for heat. Onto tracking July 4th weather coming into day 15 on the longer range guidance. Will the W/ Atl Ridge make an appearance.

Coolest since May 9 or 10th on tap this evening. Good night for Monday night football, I mean baseball.

67/51 off a high of 93 yesterday. Clouds pushing into the area from NYS. Cooler 60 hours before warmer/humid and some unsettelled weather moves in Tue (6/21) through next Fri (6/24) as ridge refires into the Plains and we are fringed. Euro cut off a ULL in the weakness along the east coast and its onshore city for 72 hours next week while the low meanders near the coastal Carolinas and we have onshore/clouds and storms. That bucked the prior trend of pushing the heat in for 24/36 hours on previous 6/17 12z guidance. We'll see where we go today but the seasonal tendency would argue another battle with onshore along the NE and EC. Beyond there next weekend 6/25 look to see flow go flatter and some of the heat come through. Plains ridge is a bit flatter as we open July on the longer range guidance so normal/bias warm would be the call as it stands now for the open of July.

We'll see but today's guidance looks similar for next wed (6/22) and Thu (6/23) as today with a blast of heat.

6/17 PHL: 96 ACY: 96 EWR: 95 JFK: 94 BLM: 93 LGA: 92 New Brnswck: 91 TTN: 91 TEB: 90 ISP: 90 NYC: 88

6/17 PHL: 96 ACY: 96 EWR: 95 JFK: 94 BLM: 93 LGA: 92 New Brnswck: 91 TTN: 91 TEB: 90 ISP: 90 NYC: 88

1PM roundup time : clouds have cooled off here 90 down to 86 PHL: 93 EWR: 92 ACY: 91 TTN: 89 BLM: 89 LGA: 88 New Brnswck: 88 TEB: 88 NYC 86 JFK: 83 ISP: 80

10 hours of summer heat then a taste of cooler weather this weekend. Next week the Plains / MW ridge rebuilds and tries to make eastward expansion Tue (6/21) through Sat (6/25) but a weakness and tendency for onshore flow and storms firing around the periphery of the ridge should limit heat in the period. The flow does look to flatten some by next weekend (6/25-26) and may allow for a blast of heat. Beyond there into the final week of June 6/27 and open of July we'll see if the WAR can push west and link to send a longer period of heat into the region.

Rainy days and Monday's / Here's that Rainy day playing on the radio. Showers, some storms moving through N - S the next couple of hours. Much cooler and a somewhat kinda gloomy today where we are likely locked in clouds beyond the rain into mid/late afternoon before the surge (brief) of the Plains/MidWeest furnace blasts through the area Friday (6/17). Most will see near or low 90s, could be a few stray md 90s in the hot spots. The weekend while cooler for sure looks great (California Style) sunny both days NYC/NJ metro highs 70s Saturday near 80 Sunday with lows 50s / 60s. A bit warmer by Mon (6/20) but still looks splendid. The models build the ride east but again (cooler mid range) as onshore influences and weakness into the northeast create rain / onshore tendencies through 6/24. We'll see if things trend warmer again and we can see some heat in the Wed - Fri period. Beyond Fri (6/24)- The heat is building into the plains and Mid west and longer range now showing the blast into the area Sat 6/25 - flatter flow / higher heights end June into July. We have seen many (most) Junes with limited (2-5) 90 degree days, some had none and then a heat surged the last 3-4 days and into July so this isnt anything unnormal from the past 10/12 years of so. EWR June 90 degree daya: 2021 : 13 2020: 5 2019: 4 2018: 5 2017: 5 2016: 3 2015: 4 2014: 2 2013: 4 2012: 6 2011: 4 2010: 13

Could go Rick Astley or Beach Boys with multiple hits between 6/22-6/25

Weekend looks marvelous upper 70s / low 80s day and 50s/60 night. Monday too. Change to warmer and hooter coming Tuesday seems to be the progression. Still need to work out ridge axis and any storms.

New Brnswck : 84 yesterday.

Buffered from the strong heat the next 36 hours (6/15-6/16) before a quick fringe blast on Friday (6/17). The weekend (6/18 and 6/19) looks fantastic with sunny /dry and temps near 80 and lows in the 60s and cooler inland. Monday (6/20) will remain on the normal/cooler side before a transition to warmer / hotter by Tue (6/22). Euro brings in strong heat through the 24th/25th with further eastward expansion of the ridge.

EWR is influence by a "cooling" southerly flow component from Newark Bay. LGA and other places saw their temp reach the 90s those times and EWR was stalled in the 80s those days. In recent years as the WAR built in this occrured. Bluewave pointed that out when LGA had the stronger positive temperature departures.

Good reference 93 had some flooding too https://ftpgeoinfo.msl.mt.gov/Documents/Projects/Yellowstone_River_Clearinghouse/Events_Occurrences_Final_Report_111708.pdf

2013 had that tremendous surge with the W Atlantic RIdge in July then petered out beyond there. 2009 / 2004 in the 20 year expansion as well with 2003 also kind of below the norm. The signal for that ridge being anchored into the Plains and GL/MW is more reminiscent of the warmer ones where chuncks of the heat come east in longer durations as the summer progresses.

EWR number of 90(+) days in June back to 2010. Friday should notch the 2nd and between 6/22 and 6/30 would be the question of how much heat can bleed or push east from the west. But even in 2016 with 3 the summer turned in July. EWR: June: 2021 : 13 2020: 5 2019: 4 2018: 5 2017: 5 2016: 3 2015: 4 2014: 2 2013: 4 2012: 6 2011: 4 2010: 13