SACRUS

TEB was running warmer by a few degrees on the sunnier days about 2/3 years ago and we may be seeing the same at EWR. Today would be a good example if that is the case.

Down to a very pleasant 57 last night and now jumping to 72/61. Warm week ahead with a very mid summer feel. Bright sunshine today with highs jumping to the upper 80s perhaps some 90s on the warm spots. widespread 90s on Tue (7/12) and Wed (7/13) ahead of some storms on Tuesday night. Pending on clouds Wed could be the hottest day of the week. Continues warm as another piece of the western furnace ejects east this coming weekend Sat (7/16) and Sun (7/17) into next week. Overall above normal regime. Wild card will be tropics and potential tropical storm Danielle. Longer range continues to show overall nation wide warmth and the Western Atlantic Ridge shifting westward to perhaps link with the WUS ridge.

7/10 Highs TEB: 85 EWR: 85 TTN: 84 New Brnswck: 84 PHL: 83 NYC: 83 LGA: 82 JFK: 81 ISP: 81 ACY: 80 BLM: 76

58/48 low overnight noe 74/56 with NNE flow. Lining up to be a gorgeous day and a very mid summer week with some heat and maybe some storms. A piece of the furnace will eject east by Mon (7/11) and roast the area Tue (7/12) and Wed (7/13) where 850 MB temps are forecast to be >18c to 20C. Highs in the mid / upper 90s with some of the hotter spots approaching the 100 marker. Storms may time to arrive later Tuesday and overnight tuesday into Wednesday. Wednesday should clear and heat up. Overall hot with temps near 90 Thu (7/14) and Fri (7/15). The latest overnight runs have kept the tropical low threat from the gulf away from the area - Euro shifts it east, GFS keeps it offshore and away from the area. Longer range : The Western Atlantic Ridge is continuing to look like a westwards retrograding extending into the coast and setting up and overall all nationwide above normal regime,

7/9 EWR: 89 TEB: 86 JFK: 86 ISP: 85 NYC: 85 New Brnswck: 85 LGA: 84 TTN: 80 BLM: 79 PHL: 76 ACY: 74

Shower/Clouds pushing south dividing NJ in half. Should turn out to be quite pleasant today for much of the area. Sunday should see areawide very sunny and near normal before warming begins on Mon (7/11) as the furnace ejects heat into the region. Overall hot next week with Tue (7/12) and Wed (7/13) looking to see mid / upper 90s. Storms look possible Wed. Thu (7/15) Euro has low eject out of the gulf up the EC with some decent rains skimming the area. GFS keeps it warm - hot and dry (mainly). Loner range still offers warmer look to end the month. Will need to see if the Western Atlantic High builds west or the Rockies ridge pushes east with a trough into the PNW/WC by the 19th.

7/8 EWR: 91 BLM: 88 PHL: 88 New Brnswck: 87 TTN: 86 LGA: 86 ACY: 86 TEB: 84 NYC: 83 JFK: 81 ISP: 81

http://synoptic.envsci.rutgers.edu/site/imgs/vis_nj_anim.gif

73/67 here. Partly sunny now but plenty of clouds around. Should we get into longer breaks of sunshine we should see plenty of mid/upper 80s and some of the hotter spots get to 90. Euro was the first with the weekend being mixed- Saturday cloudy and scattered storms, more widespread rains look mainlys south of the NYC/NJ metro areas into the southern half of NJ. Should dry out later Saturday and give way to a very nice Sunday. Sunny , dry and exceptional. Rockies ridge shoots a piece of the furnace east Mon (7/11) - Wed (7/13). Temperatures at >18c (850) by Tuesday could push mid / upper 90s into the area and hot spots 98/99. Likely see more showers/storms later Wed (7/13) and Thu (7/14). Longer range - Rockies ridge anchored through the middle of the month - W/ ATlt Ridge may push west and allow for more sustained ridging and heat later in July.

7/7 NYC: 84 PHL: 84 EWR: 84 JFK: 82 LGA: 82 TEB: 82 ISP: 81 New Brnswck: 81 TTN: 79 ACY: 76 BLM: 75

Clouds today with rain splitting the southern 2/3 of NJ. Rain should move out over the next couple of hours and more partial clearing into the afternoon. Friday (looks much like yesterday where/when it's sunny it should push temperatures into the mid-upper 80s and some warmer spots near 90. Saturday (7/9) looks to have rain and storms move through in the morning with brunt of the precip staying south of the nyc/nj metro areas. By Sunday (7/10) is looking very clear and sunny. Western Ridge lodges over the Rockies sends a piece of the heat down around the trough into the EC Tue (7/12) - Wed (7/13). Assuming its sunny it could be very hot for 36-48 hours as Euro and GFS pushing >18c - 21C 850 MB temperatures in the period. Longer range continues to show ridge building into the east coast linking at times with the retrograding Western Atlantic High. http://synoptic.envsci.rutgers.edu/site/imgs/vis_nj_anim.gif

7/6 ACY: 92 EWR: 91 PHL: 90 JFK: 89 BLM: 89 TTN: 87 New Brnswck: 87 TEB: 87 LGA: 86 ISP: 85 NYC: 85

Partly sunny and warm / hotter today. Should see plenty of upper 80s / low 90s. Models pushing brunt of the rain south Thu (7/7) and Fri (7/8). Will see if any of the more widespread showers and rain can push into the region. Otherwise, looking cloudy Thursday and 80s and perhaps stormier on Fri. The weekend currently looks dry and sunny but the 06z euro did bring a batch of showers into the region. Rockies Ridge on roids through mid month, yet despite the trough into the GL and NE, a warm southerly flow on days that are dry should push temps near 90 early next week Mon (7/11) - Wed (7/13). Would think with such a trough that rain chances should increase. Beyond that the Western Atlantic Ridge is on the move west. Will see how it progresses but a much warmer finish to the month may be instore.

7/5 EWR: 91 PHL: 89 New Brnswck: 88 TEB: 88 LGA: 88 NYC: 87 BLM: 86 TTN: 86 ACY: 84 JFK: 84 ISP: 82

Tue (7/5) More clouds than sun with some showers/storm later today into tonight. Mostly mid 80s If we get longer breaks of sun perhaps an outside shot of some upper 80s 87- 90 in the warmer spots. Not a whole lot of rain. Wed (7/6) looks like the drier/warmer day this work week with increasing clearing and partly sunny and warm upper 80s / low 90s. Th (7/7) and Fri (7/8) a bit unsettled with showers each day with a larger widespread rainfall on friday morning. We'll see how much rain we can cash in on. The weekend looks very nice on the latest modeling and next week a warmer / humid with temps hovering in the mid / upper 80s and with enough sun spots will break 90 especially by the 12-14. Some hints now that the W. A.R will build back in the mid month timeframe perhaps pulling a longer sustained fringe of the western furnace into and up along the east coast to end July on a hotter note. We will see how it progresses.

7/4 ACY: 93 EWR: 91 PHL: 88 LGA: 87 TEB: 86 New Brunswck: 86 JFK: 85 TTN: 85 NYC: 85 ISP: 82 BLM: 82

Blue Skies - nothing but blue skies Good Vibrations kind of day

Happy Fourth of July A tremendous day on tap. Sunny, dry and warm - its been a while since we had one of these. Down to 57 here. Now 70/49. Parts of the central / NE - NJ may get 90(+) again for 6 straight days as heights remain elevated into the EC, otherwise mid / upper 80s for the area. Great fireowrks viewing dry and in the 60s. Warmer overall through Wed with push of more warm/hot Tue (7/5)and Wed (7/6, where only storms, showers or clouds will prevent more 90s, especially in the warmer spots. Still a matter of timing any pop up and more areawide rain/ showers. Tue/ Wed look to see mainly pop up / scattered storms before Thu (7.7) /Fri (7/8) more widespread. Ridge remans anchored into the Rockies with heat dome centered near the mile high city through the week of Mon 7/11). Trough builds into the G/L and North east wrap around E/NE flow keeping it near or below normal. By the Tue (7/12) / Wed (7/13) a chuck of the Denver doozie is heading east and may scrape the area for a 2 day blast of stronger heat, before next front. Looking in the way beyond and Western heat may expand and link with Western Atlantic Ridge near the other side of mid July.

7/3 EWR: 93 PHL: 91 New Brnswck: 89 NYC: 88 TEB: 88 LGA: 88 TTN: 87 JFK: 86 ACY: 85 ISP: 85 BLM: 82

7/2 EWR: 96 PHL: 94 BLM: 92 New Brnswck: 91 ACY: 91 TEB: 91 LGA: 91 TTN: 91 JFK: 87 NYC: 87 ISP: 84

7/2 EWR: 96 PHL: 94 BLM: 92 New Brnswck: 91 ACY: 91 TEB: 91 LGA: 91 TTN: 91 JFK: 87 NYC: 87 ISP: 84

Forecast was more scattered storms today, more widespread later this PM. The timing of the front came into view later this week. The quicker forecasts and slower were wrong and the front timing was a compromise. If we get to 90 it'll be day 4 for some in NE - NJ with outside shot at 90 on Sun and Mon. Probably then need to assess but temps look capped sub 90s Jul 5 - Jul 11th.

Some bigger breaks of the clouds now and partly sunny.