SACRUS

76 /60 and quite a great summer day. Mid and upper 80s on NW flow with 850 MB Temperatures 12C- 14C. Thu (8/10) clouds and storms move in by the PM a widespread near or > 1 inch amounts. Beyond there a more humid/warm weekend with storms chances Sat night and perhaps into Sun morning. A similar progression to early Jul. Warm and humid and where/when sun is out it warms up quickly and possible chance near 90. Mon (8/14) warm and drier before Trough moves through and out Tue (8/15) - Wed (8/16). The western Atlantic ridge builds west to a point much less than initially modeled but a trough does come down into the WC with heights coming up into the east or an overall warm / humid to hot at times period 8/17 - late month. Strong heat is nearby and could make it to or just near the area. Looks above normal or the period perhaos ridge moves over and forced onshore later in the period. Tropics of course need to be watched with strong W. Atl Ridge near by forcing storms west.

8/8 EWR: 84 PHL: 84 ISP: 83 JFK: 82 TEB: 81 LGA: 81 ACY: 81 BLM: 80 NYC: 80 New Brnswck: 78 TTN: 77

16 years ago tornado in Staten Island and Bay Ridge Brooklyn

Records: Highs: EWR: 101 (2001) - heat dome was estabished NYC: 99 (2001) LGA: 98 (2001) Lows: EWR: 56 (1989) NYC: 54 (1903) LGA: 59 (1989) Historical: 1874: Swarms of Rocky Mountain locust invaded Denver, Colorado. Millions were seen cruising through the air. The insects were picked up by a thunderstorm gust front and carried into the city. The grasshoppers ravaged crops in surrounding counties for the last month. 1878 - The temperature at Denver, CO, soars to an all-time record high of 105 degrees. (The Weather Channel) 1881 - A cloudburst and flash flood occurred at Central Springs, CO, and Idaho Springs, CO. (David Ludlum) 1882 - An August snowstorm was reported by a ship on Lake Michigan. A thick cloud reportedly burst on the decks covering them with snow and slush six inches deep. Snow showers were observed at shore points that day. (David Ludlum) (The Weather Channel) 1983 - The temperature at Big Horn Basin, WY, reached 115 degrees to establish a state record. (The Weather Channel) 1987 - Thunderstorm rains in eastern Nebraska sent the Wahoo River and Ithica River above flood stage. Thunderstorm rains in western Iowa sent the Nishnabotna River over flood stage. Up to seven inches of rain deluged the Council Bluffs area Friday evening and Saturday morning. Thunderstorms produced 4.4 inches of rain in three hours Friday evening, along with golf ball size hail. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1988 - Thunderstorms developing along a slow moving cold front produced severe weather from central Kansas to southern Wisconsin late in the day. Thunderstorms in Iowa produced hail three inches in diameter at Vinton, and produced wind gusts to 75 mph at Donohue and near Mount Pleasant. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1989 - A total of ninety-nine cities in the central and eastern U.S. reported record low temperatures for the date, including Alpena MI with a reading of 40 degrees. Mount Mitchell NC was the cold spot in the nation with a morning low of 35 degrees. Early evening thunderstorms around Las Vegas NV produced wind gusts to 116 mph. The high winds damaged or destroyed about eighty- two aircraft at Henderson Sky Harbor Airport and McCarran International Airport, causing fourteen million dollars damage. (Storm Data) (The National Weather Summary)

73 / 69 about 0.75 in the bucket the last 30 hours or so. pmostly cloudy now but some breaks in the clouds later today after some scattered / isolated showers move through. Clearing out and drying out Wed (8/9) / Thu (8/10). Warm mid upper 80s. 850s are about 12C-14C so perhaps a stray 90 with enough sun but likely upper 80s does it. By Thu evening the next round of storms is moving through as trough moves east and butts up against the W Atlantic Ridge. Storms Fri (8/11) morning then clearing with a warmer weekend and looking mainly dry although scattered storms wouldnt surprise me coming back into the forecast, The western atlantic ridge hit a delay west of Bermuda and the latest forecasts dont have the westward push prior runs had. Mon (8/14) - Tue (8/15) trough moves through and lifts out. Strong heat skirts by the area to the south in pulses 24 hours out and repeat afew days later. Beyond that 8/17 and onwards later in the month - overall warm to hot (at times 90s a day or two), humid and storms chances. The way beyond has the EC ridging but we'll need to track the seasonal tendency to adjust that west and the W. Atlantic Ridge nearby.

8/7 Records: Highs: EWR: 100 (2001) NYC: 104 (1918) LGA: 99 (2001) Lows: EWR: 57 (1948) NYC: 57 (1994) LGA: 61 (1975) Historical: 1904 - A flash flood near Pueblo, CO, washed a train from the tracks killing 89 passengers. A bridge, weakened by the floodwaters sweeping through the valley below, gave way under the weight of the train dashing all but the sleeping cars into the torrent drowning the occupants. Rail service was frequently interrupted in the Rocky Mountain Region and southwestern U.S. that summer due to numerous heavy downpours which washed out the railroad beds delaying trains as much as five days. (David Ludlum) (The Weather Channel) 1918 - Philadelphia, PA, established an all-time record with a high of 106 degrees. New York City experienced its warmest day and night with a low of 82 degrees and a high of 102 degrees. Afternoon highs of 108 degrees at Flemington NJ and Somerville NJ established state records for the month of August. (The Weather Channel) (Sandra and TI Richard Sanders - 1987) 1924: A tornado caused estimated F4 damage moved southeast from south of Osseo, WI to Black River Falls, WI. One person was killed as a home was leveled and a boy was killed running to the storm cellar near the start of the path. Two people died as farm homes were swept away near the northeast edge of Black River Falls. Damage totaled $200,000 as 50 farms were hit and buildings were unroofed in the town of Northfield. The tornado followed the present route of Interstate 94. 1984 - El Paso, TX, normally receives 1.21 inches of rain in August. They got it in forty-five minutes, with four more inches to boot, during a storm which left Downtown El Paso under five feet of water. (The Weather Channel) 1986 - A rare outbreak of seven tornadoes occurred in New England. One tornado carved its way through Cranston RI and Providence RI causing twenty injuries. Rhode Island had not reported a tornado in twelve years, and three touched down in 24 hours. (Storm Data) (The National Weather Summary) 1987 - Morning thunderstorms drenched Goldsboro, NC, with 3.37 inches of rain. Late morning thunderstorms in Arizona produced dime size hail, wind gusts to 50 mph, and two inches of rain, at Sierra Vista. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1988 - A dozen cities in the central U.S. reported record high temperatures for the date, including Waco, TX, with a reading of 107 degrees. The record high of 88 degrees at Marquette, MI, was their twenty-third of the year. Afternoon and evening thunderstorms produced severe weather in Nebraska, Minnesota and Wisconsin, with wind gusts to 81 mph reported at McCool, NE. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1989 - Forty cities in the central U.S. reported record low temperatures for the date, including Valentine, NE, with a reading of 40 degrees, and Belcourt ND with a low of 37 degrees. Martin SD was the cold spot in the nation with a morning low of 30 degrees. Unseasonably hot weather prevailed over Florida and Washington State, with record highs of 100 degress at Daytona Beach, FL, 101 degrees at Walla Walla, WA, and 103 degrees at Hanford, WA. (The National Weather Summary)

8/7 PHL: 88 New Brnswck: 85 TEB: 85 EWR: 84 TTN: 84 LGA: 82 BLM: 82 ACY: 82 NYC: 81 JFK: 79 ISP: 79

low level clouds burning off and sun into NJ

76 / 71 and 0.59 in the bucket between 3Am and 450AM. Mainly cloudy but already breaks in the clouds and could see some sun and a push into the 80s before the next round of storms this afternoon and evening. Tue looks cloudy with isolated showers / storms before drying out Wed (8/10). Ridge anchored out west and trough into the NE. The Western Atlantic ridge builds west in phases, foirst by the end of this week and into the weekend butting up against the trouh and keeping the boundary front nearby with storms chances. By 8/14 / 8/15 the ridge is further expanding albeit not as strong as previous forecasts and likely more like late July where core of the ridge keep the strongest heat south but warm to hot , humid and likely storms chances as we push over into the second half of the month. The way beyond - looks like the trough is in / out before ridging into the east.

8/6 PHL: 89 EWR: 87 New Brnswck: 87 NYC: 87 LGA: 86 TEB: 86 TTN: 86 BLM: 84 ACY: 84 ISP: 83 JFK: 81

3PM Roundup New Brnswck: 87 NYC: 87 (have they cleaned the park or just recent dryness?) EWR: 86 PHL: 86 EWR: 85 TEB: 85 TTN: 84 LGA: 84 ACY: 84 BLM: 83 ISP: 81 JFK: 80

Yes it does look good for wed. May be thw way worded or read through Tue into Wed . Wed looks like this past Wed.

Records: Highs: EWR: 97 ( 2001) start of that record heat, also a low record high for EWR NYC: 97 (1955) LGA: 95 (2018) Lows: EWR: 54 (1934) NYC: 56 (1869) LGA: 57 (1994) Historical: 1890 - Thunderstorms left four inches of hail covering the ground in Adair County and Union County in Iowa. The hail drifted into six foot mounds, and in some places remained on the ground for twenty- six days. (The Weather Channel) 1918 - Unusually hot weather began to overspread the Atlantic Coast States, from the Carolinas to southern New England. The temp- erature soared to an all-time record high of 106 degrees at Washington D.C., and Cumberland and Keedysville hit 109 degrees to establish a state record for Maryland. Temperatures were above normal east of the Rockies that month, with readings much above normal in the Lower Missouri Valley. Omaha NE reached 110 degrees. (David Ludlum) 1959 - A bucket survey showed that thunderstorms dropped 16.70 inches of rain on parts of Decatur County IA. The total was accepted as Iowa's 24 hour rainfall record. (The Weather Channel) 1986 - Evening thunderstorms produced wind gusts to 100 mph at Winner SD damaging two hundred homes. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1987 - Afternoon thunderstorms deluged Milwaukee, WI, with 6.84 inches of rain, including more than five inches in two hours, breaking all previous rainfall records for the city. Floodwaters were four feet deep at the Milwaukee County Stadium, and floodwaters filled the basement of the main terminal at the airport. Flooding caused 5.9 million dollars damage, and claimed the life of one person. Death Valley, CA, reported a morning low of 97 degrees. A midday thunderstorm deluged Birmingham AL with nearly six inches of rain in one hour. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1988 - Severe thunderstorms produced large hail and damaging winds in Pennsylvania and New York State. A cold front crossing the northwestern U.S. produced wind gusts to 66 mph at Livingston MT. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1989 - Thunderstorms developing ahead of a cold front produced severe weather from northwestern Texas to the Southern Appalachians, and in the northeastern U.S. There were 136 reports of large hail or damaging winds during the day and evening. Thunderstorms in the Southern Plains Region produced tennis ball size hail northwest of Buffalo OK, and wind gusts to 100 mph at Pampa TX. (Storm Data) (The National Weather Summary) 1993: Virginia experienced its worst tornado outbreak ever as 18 tornadoes ripped through the state in 5 hours. The most devastating tornado caused severe damage in the historic part of Petersburg. The storm then moved on to Pocahontas Island and into Colonial Heights. There, the storm ripped apart a WalMart store, killing three people and injuring nearly 200. The F4 twister was the first known violent tornado in Virginia history. It killed a total of 4 people and injured 246 along its 12-mile path. Total damages were near $50 million.

77 / 61 and partly cloudy. Warm and less humid and perhaps less cloudy than Saturday. Mid / upper 80s. Mon (8/7) - Wed (8/9) warm , humid and very stormy. There doesnt seem to be enough breaks in any of the clouds to offer a few hot spots 90, but airmass is warm enough. Rain could add up 1 - 2 inches widespread with heavier amounts >3 inches. Beyond there the western Atlantic ridge is building west in phases, first bumping against the trough and establishing boundary by late week into the weekend Fri (8/11) - Sat (8/12), perhaos a vigorous piece of energy with storms / heavy rain.. By Sun (8/13) and into Mon (8/14) heights and humidity are risging but still storms chances. By early next week the W. Atl Ridge is pushing 594 DM into or just south of the area (similar to late July) and the next shot at some stronger heat. Overall - warm / humid with some heat in the way beyond with tropics setup to come alive.

8/5 EWR: 88 NYC: 87 BLM: 86 New Brnswck: 86 PHL: 86 LGA: 85 TEB: 85 ISP: 85 JFK: 84 TTN: 84 ACY: 82

Records: Highs: EWR: 102 (1944) NYC: 101 (1944) LGA: 100 (1955) Lows: EWR: 57 (1951) NYC: 56 (1951) LGA: 57 (1972) Historical: 1843 - A spectacular cloudburst near Philadelphia turned the small creeks and streams entering the Delaware River into raging torrents. As much as sixteen inches of rain fell in just three hours. Flooding destroyed thirty-two county bridges, and caused nineteen deaths. It is believed that several small tornadoes accompanied the torrential rains, one of which upset and sank more than thirty barges on the Schuylkill River. (David Ludlum) 1875: Several tornadoes moved across northern and central Illinois. One of the stronger tornadoes touched down in Warren and Knox County where it destroyed 25 homes and killed two people. Another in a series of tornadoes touched down near Knoxville and moved east into northern Peoria County. This estimated F4 tornado injured 40 people and was described by eyewitnesses as looking like a "monstrous haystack." 1961 - The temperature at Ice Harbor Dam, WA, soared to 118 degrees to equal the state record established at Wahluke on the 24th of July in 1928. The afternoon high of 111 degrees at Havre, MT, was an all-time record for that location. (The Weather Channel) 1987 - Severe thunderstorms raked eastern South Dakota. The thunderstorms spawned half a dozen tornadoes, produced softball size hail at Bowdle, and produced wind gusts to 90 mph south of Watertown. Hot weather continued in eastern Texas. Afternoon highs of 100 degrees at Houston and 106 degrees at Waco equalled records for the date. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1988 - Thunderstorms produced severe weather from Indiana and Lower Michigan to Pennsylvania and New York State during the day. Thunderstorms in Michigan produced wind gusts to 80 mph at Ashley, Hastings and Lennon. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1989 - Thunderstorms produced severe weather in Oklahoma, and from Iowa to the Upper Ohio Valley, with 216 reports of large hail or damaging winds between early Saturday morning and early Sunday morning. Thunderstorms moving across Iowa around sunrise produced extremely high winds which caused ten million dollars damage to crops in Carroll and Greene Counties. Thunderstorm winds at Jefferson IA reached 102 mph. Afternoon thunderstorms produced tennis ball size hail at Bay Mills, WI. (Storm Data) (The National Weather Summary)

77 / 67 and partly cloudy. Continue the Puppy days of summer the next two days with a gorgeous weekend enroute. Warm southerly flow Mon (8/7) - Wed (8/9) humid, warm with storms. When and where the sun is out it'll heat up quickly - this is like early Jul, so some chances at 90 in the sunnier / clearer spots and humid. Thu (8/10) - Sat (8/12) transition as trough lifts and the western Atlantic ridge builds west more storms chances by the end of the week and weekend 8/12. Beyond there The W. Atl Ridge builds back into the EC anchoring in a warm humid flow with some heat. Will go more into the pure dog days then. We'll have to see the progression and strength vs the late July projections. But overall warm and humid and likely storms chances (more if the boundary is nearby and more scattered / isolated if stronger W.A.R).

8/4 EWR: 79 (first below 80 high since June 23rd) TEB: 79 LGA: 78 ISP: 78 New Brnswck: 77 PHL: 77 NYC: 77 JFK: 76 BLM: 76 TTN: 75 ACY: 72

Records: Highs: EWR: 100 (1993) the summer heat continued to roll on on NYC: 100 (1944) LGA: 99 (1944) Lows: EWR: 58 (1945) NYC: 55 (1874) LGA:62 (1964) Historical: 1882 - A vivid aurora was visible from Oregon to Maine, down the east coast as far as Mayport FL, and inland as far as Wellington KS. Observers at Louisville KY noted merry dancers across the sky, and observers at Saint Vincent, MN, noted it was probably the most brilliant ever seen at that location. (The Weather Channel) 1930 - The temperature at Moorefield, WV, soared to 112 degrees to establish a state record, having reached 110 degrees the previous day. Widespread drought after April of that year caused some towns to haul water for domestic use, and many manufacturing plants were barely operational. (The Weather Channel) 1961 - Spokane, WA, reached an all-time record high of 108 degrees. Kalispell, MT, set an all-time record with a reading of 105 degrees. (The Weather Channel) 1980 - A record forty-two consecutive days of 100 degree heat finally came to an end at the Dallas-Fort Worth Airport. July 1980 proved to be the hottest month of record with a mean temperature of 92 degrees. There was just one day of rain in July, and there was no measurable rain in August. There were 18 more days of 100 degree heat in August, and four in September. Hot weather that summer contributed to the deaths of 1200 people nationally, and losses from the heat across the country were estimated at twenty billion dollars. (David Ludlum) (The Weather Channel) 1987 - A cold front brought relief from the heat to a large part of the Midwest, while hot weather continued in the south central and eastern U.S. Morning thunderstorms in Nebraska deluged the town of Dalton with 8.71 inches of rain, along with hail three inches in diameter, which accumulated up to four feet deep near the town of Dix. (Storm Data) (The National Weather Summary) 1988 - Thunderstorms produced severe weather from eastern Iowa to Lower Michigan during the afternoon and evening hours, producing golf ball size hail and spawning several tornadoes. A thunderstorm at Maquoketa, IA, produced wind gusts to 75 mph. (Storm Data) (The National Weather Summary) 1989 - Thunderstorms produced severe weather from eastern Nebraska and northeastern Kansas to the Great Lakes Region, with 150 reports of large hail or damaging winds during the afternoon, evening, and nighttime hours. Thunderstorms produced tennis ball size hail at Claremont, MN, and wind gusts to 75 mph at Milwaukee, WI. Thunderstorms representing what once was Hurricane Chantal produced five inches of rain at Grant, MI, and deluged Chicago, IL, with more than three inches of rain in three hours. (Storm Data) (The National Weather Summary)

74 / 66 and mostly cloudy. Humid with some scattered storms today make way for a very nice weekend. By Mon (8/7) warm southerly flow will bring humidity and more widespread storms chances. Overall warmer and turning more humid and hot towards the end of next week as the trough lifts out back into the GL with the expanding western Atlantic ridge. Storms chances along the boundary - similar to early July but perhaps stronger ridge pushes the hevaiest west of the area.

8/3 Records Highs: EWR: 101 (2006) heatwave continued NYC: 97 (2005) LGA: 100 (2006) Lows: EWR: 57 (1953) NYC: 55 (1927) LGA: 59 (1953) Historical: 1885 - A tornado hit Philadelphia and Camden along its eight mile path. (David Ludlum) 1970 - Hurricane Celia struck the coast of Texas producing wind gusts to 161 mph at Corpus Christi, and estimated wind gusts of 180 mph at Arkansas Pass. The hurricane was the most destructive of record along the Texas coast causing 454 million dollars damage, and also claimed eleven lives. (David Ludlum) (The Weather Channel) 1987 - A severe thunderstorm moved across Cheyenne, WY, during the mid afternoon. The thunderstorm produced hailstones up to two inches in diameter causing more than 37 million dollars damage. The eastern U.S. sweltered in the heat. A dozen cities reported record high temperatures for the date, including Paducah KY with a reading of 102 degrees. Beckley WV established an all- time record with an afternoon high of 93 degrees. (Storm Data) (The National Weather Summary) 1988 - Thunderstorms developing ahead of a slow moving cold front produced severe weather from the Central High Plains to the Upper Great Lakes Region. Thunderstorms around Fort Collins, CO, produced wind gusts to 74 mph along with marble size hail. Sixteen persons were injured in the storm, most of whom were accidently locked out of their office building, having evacuated it when the fire alarm went off, apparently triggered by lightning. (Storm Data) (The National Weather Summary) 1989 - Thunderstorms representing what remained of Hurricane Chantal drenched Wichita, KS, with 2.20 inches of rain in four hours during the early morning. Thunderstorms developing in Minnesota produced wind gusts to 85 mph at Baudette during the afternoon, and softball size hail at Lake Kabetogama, during the evening. Jamestown, ND, reported a record hot afternoon high of 103 degrees. (Storm Data) (The National Weather

8/3 EWR: 81 PHL: 81 LGA: 80 New Brnswck: 80 NYC: 80 BLM: 79 TEB: 79 TTN: 79 ACY: 78 JFK: 78 ISP: 77

71/ 57 partly cloudy and very nice out. Last of these below normal days. Transition to a warmer / humid pattern by Fri (8/4) with storms chances Fri and Sat (8/5) with dewpoints comning back to 60s. Warm Sun (8/6) but with isolated storms chances. Mon (8/7) - Thu (8/10) warmer with next shot at 90s in the warmer spots, storms chances. The western Atlantic ridge is building west by next weekend 11/12th and thr trough is backing into the GL. Overall warm, humid into mid month with storms chances as boundary setting up south / west of the region but still more tropical (similar to early Jul). Tropics time by mid month with burgeoning Western Atlantics ridge steering towards SE / GOM.