SACRUS

63 / 59 orr a low of 57. Very nice morning (windows open). Warmer today as the robustico ridge builds into Kansas city and s craping of the heat moves into the region for 36 hours. Quick warm up to mid / upper 80s and the warm spots touching 90. Low 90s tomorrow , capped by nearby clouds. Enough sun and perhaps a stray mid 90s. Flow comes around as ridge pumps west, and cool N/NE low through Wed/Thu. By Fri (8/25) the flow is coming back around but likely coincides with next shot at rain and upper trough. Rockies ridge keeps the SW how and dries out the flooded desets. Period 8/27 - 8/30 looks somewhat near normal with trough into the NE likely backing west or cutting off towards months end so likely turn more humid to close the month after a few more dry days.. Way beyond We'll see if the warm Atlantic can push and break the seasonal tendency with EC trough.

8/19 EWR: 82 LGA: 81 ACY: 81 PHL: 81 JFK: 79 TEB: 79 New Brnswck: 79 BLM: 79 ISP: 78 NYC: 78 TTN: 78

Records: Highs: EWR: 96 (2002) NYC: 94 (2002) LGA: 94 (1966) Lows: EWR: 54 (1958) NYC: 55 (1924) LGA: 59 (1979) Historical: 1788 - A small but powerful hurricane inflicted great havoc upon forests along a narrow track from New Jersey to Maine. A similar storm track today would cause extreme disaster in the now populated area. (David Ludlum) 1890: An estimated F3 tornado hit South Wilkes-Barre, Pennsylvania. About 400 buildings were destroyed in the industrial and more impoverished residential section of town. The death toll was 16 and damage was estimated at $400,000. 1896: The famous Cottage City (Oak Bluffs) waterspout occurred off Martha's Vineyard, Massachusetts. The vortex was 3,600 feet high, formed three times, and was well photographed. 1969 - 'Never say die' Camille let loose a cloudburst in Virginia resulting in flash floods and landslides which killed 151 persons and cause 140 million dollars damage. Massies Hill VA received 27 inches of rain. (David Ludlum) 1986 - The temperature at San Antonio, TX, soared to an all-time record high of 108 degrees. (Sandra and TI Richard Sanders - 1987) 1987 - Thunderstorms moving out of southeastern Nebraska spread severe weather into eastern Kansas and western Missouri during the day. Thunderstorms in Nebraska produced hail three inches in diameter at Albion, and high winds which downed a large tent at Waterloo injuring a dozen persons. Thunderstorms in Kansas produced baseball size hail northwest of Topeka, and wind gusts to 80 mph at Fulton. Ten persons were injured in a thunderstorm at Princeton KS, and damage to crops in southern Franklin County KS was estimated at 3.5 million dollars. (Storm Data) (The National Weather Summary) 1988 - Raleigh, NC, reported a record hot temperature reading of 103 degrees. Afternoon thunderstorms in Oklahoma produced wind gusts to 75 mph in southern Pittsburgh County. Thunderstorms in Indiana produced 4.50 inches of rain at Morgantown. (Storm Data) (The National Weather Summary) 1989 - Early morning thunderstorms deluged southeastern Delaware with six to ten inches of rain in four to six hours, with local reports of 13 to 20 inches of rain. Twenty-six major roads were closed or damaged, and fourteen bridges were washed out. Flooding caused nearly four million dollars damage to local businesses. (Storm Data) (The National Weather Summary)

73 / 53 sunny low humidity and low 80s. Warmer but still dry Sun (8/20) mid / upper 80s the warm spots to 90. Mon (8/21) pending on when clouds arrive most spots to 90, with enough sun mid 990s in the warmer spots. The 600 DM ridge axis over KS/MS and wanes as HIllary pumps the western side of the ridge. Flow goes around N/NE by Tue afternoon (8/22). Cooler Wed - Thu (8/24). Fri (8/25) - Sat (8/26) flow comes back around to the SW warmer more humid, showers / storms and clouds could limit temps. Beyond there near normal through D10 with most heat staying south and westt fo the area. The tropics come around swinging. https://cdn.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES16/ABI/SECTOR/eus/02/GOES16-EUS-02-1000x1000.gif

8/18 EWR: 85 ACY: 84 PHL: 84 BLM: 83 LGA: 83 JFK: 83 ISP: 82 TEB: 81 New Brnswck: 81 TTN: 80 NYC: 80

Records: Highs: EWR: 97 (2002) NYC: 94 (2002) LGA: 95 (2002) Lows: EWR: 52 (1941) NYC: 55 (1915) LGA:59 (1941) Historical: 1925 - During the late morning hours a severe hailstorm struck southeastern Iowa completely destroying crops along a path six to ten miles wide and 75 miles long. The hail also injured and killed poultry and livestock, and caused a total of 2.5 million dollars damage. The hailstorm flattened fields of corn to such an extent that many had to leave their farms in search of other work. It was one of the worst hailstorms of record for the nation. (The Weather Channel) 1983 - Hurricane Alicia ravaged southeastern Texas. The hurricane caused more than three billion dollars property damage, making it one of the costliest hurricanes in the history of the U.S. Just thirteen persons were killed, but 1800 others were injured. The hurricane packed winds to 130 mph as it crossed Galveston Island, and spawned twenty-two tornadoes in less than 24 hours as it made landfall. (The Weather Channel) (Storm Data) 1987 - Thirteen cities in the eastern U.S. reported record high temperatures for the date, including Orlando FL with a reading of 98 degrees, and Portland ME with a high of 94 degrees. Newark NJ reached 90 degrees for the thirty-sixth time of the year, their second highest total of record. (The National Weather Summary) 1988 - Twenty-two cities, from the Carolinas to the Upper Ohio Valley, reported record high temperatures for the date, pushing the total number of daily record highs since the first of June above the 1100 mark. Afternoon highs of 102 degrees at Greensboro NC and 105 degrees at Raleigh NC equalled all-time records. Evening thunderstorms in Montana produced wind gusts to 75 mph at Scobey. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1989 - Thunderstorms over the Middle Atlantic Coast Region and the Upper Ohio Valley produced torrential rains in eastern Virginia during the late morning and afternoon hours. Totals ranged up to twelve inches at Yorktown. Williamsburg VA was deluged with 10.78 inches of rain between 6 AM and 10 AM, with 6.72 inches reported in just two hours. Flash flooding caused nearly twelve million dollars damage in Accomack County VA. Early evening thunderstorms in the Central High Plains Region produced walnut size hail and wind gusts to 80 mph around Casper WY. Thunderstorms produced locally heavy rains in the Yellowstone Park area, causing fifteen mudslides. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

Sun now and 82 / 60. Drier air working in.

off NYC/NJ topic- but a useful satellite view/loop in the coming weekebd for Hillary. High res visibility, https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES/sector_band.php?sat=G16&sector=psw&band=GEOCOLOR&length=24

69 / 66 0.87 in the bucket. Trough coming through and front should clear by later this afternoon after more showers and storms become isoltated. Gorgeous weekend on tap. Sunny dry dew points into the 50s. Highs Sat (8/19) - low - mid 80s. Sun (8/2) mid - upper 80s, warm spots could touch 90. Robustico ridge builds to 604 DM near KS with Hurricance Hillary pumping the western side of the ridge. Ridge shoots a piece of quick heat into the area Mon (8/21) low / mid 90s southern areas. 850 MB temps to >16c in the area with the strong heat south. By Tue the flow is coming around to the NW-N-NE and it drops back to the 80s. The rest of the week looks spectacular Wed - Thu (8/24). Flow comes around more Westerly by Fri (8/25) into the following weekend 8/26 , 8/27 with warmer and next shot at quick heat. Beyond there ridging into east with tropics active SE / GOM. Overall warmer finish to this month but sustained heat is south and west as it looks now.

8/17 PHL: 87 TTN: 85 ACY: 84 EWR: 82 New Brnswck: 81 BLM: 80 LGA: 80 TEB: 79 NYC: 79 JFK: 76 ISP: 75

Short lived but that time Mon (8/21) looks to be in the low / mid 90s based on current forecasts. I knew when the GFs and Euro showed the ridge axis centered in Ohio the seasonal trend would be south /west of there. Huge ridge pumped by Hillary on the west side forcing a N/NE flow by .ater Tue / Wed but flow comes around NW/W again by late next week for another day/2 of some heat. We'll see. Summer is similar to 2017 ish vs the other sustained heat recent years.

It dont rain in southern california?

Records: Highs: EWR: 97 (2015) NYC: 95 (2015) LGA: 94 (1944) Lows: EWR: 55 (1979) NYC: 56 (1979) LGA: 58 (1979) Historical: 1899: Hurricane San Ciriaco set many records on its path. Killing nearly 3,500 people in Puerto Rico, it was the deadliest hurricane to hit the island and the strongest at the time, until 30 years later when the island was affected by the Hurricane San Felipe Segundo, a Category 5 hurricane, in 1928. It was also the tenth deadliest Atlantic hurricane ever recorded. San Ciriaco is also the longest lasting Atlantic hurricane in recorded history, continuing for 28 days. On August 17, the hurricane turned back to the northwest and made landfall near Hatteras, North Carolina on the following day. San Ciriaco remains the strongest hurricane to make landfall on the Outer Banks since 1899. 1915 - A hurricane hit Galveston, TX, with wind gusts to 120 mph and a twelve foot storm surge. The storm claimed 275 lives, including forty-two on Galveston Island, with most deaths due to drowning. Of 250 homes built outside the seawall (which was constructed after the catastrophic hurricane of 1900), just ten percent were left standing. (The Weather Channel) 1946: An estimated F-4 tornado killed 11 people and injured 100 others in the Mankato, Minnesota area around 6:52 PM. The deaths and most of the injuries occurred in the complete destruction of the 26 cabins at the Green Gables tourist camp, 3 miles southwest of Mankato. A 27-ton road grader was reportedly hurled about 100 feet. Another tornado an hour later destroys downtown Wells, Minnesota. 1969 - Camille, the second worst hurricane in U.S. history, smashed into the Mississippi coast. Winds gusted to 172 mph at Main Pass Block LA, and to 190 mph near Bay Saint Louis MS. The hurricane claimed 256 lives, and caused 1.3 billion dollars damage. Several ocean going ships were carried over seven miles inland by the hurricane. The hurricane produced winds to 200 mph, and a storm surge of 24.6 feet. Complete destruction occurred in some coastal areas near the eye of the hurricane. (David Ludlum) (The Weather Channel) 1969: The music festival, known as Woodstock, should have ended on this day. Jimi Hendrix, the last act to perform, was delayed due to rain on Sunday evening. Jimi Hendrix took the stage at 8:30 am Monday morning. 1987 - Evening thunderstorms produced severe weather in the Northern and Central Plains Region. One thunderstorm spawned a tornado near Fairbury NE, along with baseball size hail and wind gusts to 100 mph, causing severe crop damage west of town. Ten cities in the eastern U.S. reported record high temperatures for the date. Syracuse NY hit 97 degrees for the first time in twenty-two years. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1988 - Fifty-five cities, from the Middle Mississippi Valley to the Middle Atlantic Coast Region, reported record high temperatures for the date. Beckley WV reported an all-time record high of 96 degrees, and Baltimore MD hit 104 degrees, marking their thirteenth day of the year with 100 degree heat. Chicago IL equalled a record with 46 days of 90 degree weather for the year. Thunderstorms produced severe weather from Wisconsin to New Jersey. Thunderstorms in New Jersey produced high winds which gusted to 92 mph at Wrightstown, and blew down a circus tent at Lavallette injuring fourteen persons. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1989 - Morning thunderstorms produced three to six inch rains in Oklahoma, and the Arkalatex area of Arkansas, Texas and Louisiana. Tom OK was soaked with 5.98 inches of rain, and Foreman AR received 5.55 inches. Evening thunderstorms produced high winds in the Wasatch Front of northern Utah. Thunderstorm winds gusted to 66 mph at Salt Lake City, and flash flooding caused up to two million dollars damage to a marina on Lake Powell. (Storm Data) (The National Weather Summary)

Wonder if flow comes back around by the 8/25 with 1/2 days of some heat next week. Also signs more ridging to the EC beyond D10.

80 / 72 and partly/m cloudy. Scattered/ isolated showers, storm as trough pushes front through the next 36 hours. By Sat (8/19) - Sun morning, NW flow dry and very nice. Low 80s day 60s perhaps 50s at night. Mega ridge builds over Kansas to 600 DM and pushes heat into the region Mon (8/21) / Tue (8/22) 850 MB temps >16c - 18C. The strongest heat looks just south before ridge wanes and NW-N-NE flow arrive at some point Wed (8./23). Hurricane Hillary pumps the western side o the ridge before pulling trough into the Pacific NW later next week. Flow goes back more westerly and another blast of heat looks to arrive later next week. Beyond there, heights look elevated into the EC, we'll see the seasonal trend fade with more ridging into the EC. Overall warm and perhaps tropics bring in some new threats to the EC/GOM. https://cdn.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES16/ABI/GIFS/GOES16-NE-GEOCOLOR-600x600.gif

8/16 PHL:87 EWR: 85 New Brnswck: 85 TTN: 85 ACY: 83 TEB: 82 NYC: 82 JFK: 81 LGA: 80 BLM: 80 ISP: 80

Records: Highs: EWR: 99 (1944) NYC: 96 (1944) LGA:96 (1997) Lows: EWR: 57 (1945) year to year records both ways NYC: 55 (1880) LGA: 58 (1979) Historical: 1777 - The Battle of Bennington, delayed a day by rain, was fought. The rain delayed British reinforcements, and allowed the Vermont Militia to arrive in time, enabling the Americans to win a victory by defeating two enemy forces, one at a time. (David Ludlum) 1909 - A dry spell began in San Bernardino County of southern California that lasted until the 6th of May in 1912, a stretch of 994 days! Another dry spell, lasting 767 days, then began in October of 1912. (The Weather Channel) 1916 - Altapass, NC, was deluged with 22.22 inches of rain in 24 hours to establish a state record. (The Weather Channel) 1987 - Afternoon and evening thunderstorms developing along a cold front produced severe weather from Oklahoma to Wisconsin and Lower Michigan. Thunderstorms in central Illinois produced wind gusts to 80 mph at Springfield which toppled two large beer tents at the state fair injuring 58 persons. Thunderstorms also drenched Chicago IL with 2.90 inches of rain, making August 1987 their wettest month of record. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1988 - Thunderstorms developing along a slow moving cold front produced severe weather from North Dakota to Lower Michigan during the day. Nine tornadoes were sighted in North Dakota, and thunderstorms also produced hail three inches in diameter at Lakota ND, and wind gusts to 83 mph at Marais MI. Thirty-seven cities in the northeastern U.S. reported record high temperatures for the date, including Rockford IL with a reading of 104 degrees. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1989 - Late afternoon and evening thunderstorms in the Central High Plains Region produced golf ball size hail at La Junta CO, Intercanyon CO, and Custer SD. Afternoon thunderstorms over South Texas drenched Brownsville with 2.60 inches of rain. Fair skies allowed viewing of the late evening full lunar eclipse from the Great Lakes Region to the Northern and Central Plains Region, and across much of the western third of the country. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1992: One of the most destructive United States hurricanes of record started modestly as a tropical wave that emerged from the west coast of Africa on August 14. The wave spawned a tropical depression on August 16, which became Tropical Storm Andrew the next day.

75 / 69 and cloudy. Should clear out by the noon time sunny and warm low-mid 80s. Back to more clouds tomorrow Thue (8/17)ahead of the advancing trough with showers / storms Fri (8/18) but does not look very widespread at this point. Beyond there Sat (8/19) - Wed (8/23) ridge builds over KS peaking at 594 - near 600 DM. NW flow turns warm- hot by Mon (8/21) - Tue (8/22) before more N/NE flow pushes back heat. The strongest heat looks to skim the area Mon - Tue with brunt of the 850MB >20c mostly south and west of the area. Later in the month war / humid overall with rising heights and tropics active.

8/15 ACY: 92 PHL: 91 BLM: 90 New Brnswck: 86 TTN: 86 EWR: 84 JFK: 81 ISP: 80 NYC: 80 TEB: 79 LGA: 78

Records: 8/15 Highs: EWR: 99 (1988) NYC: 97 (1988) LGA: 97 (1985) Lows: EWR: 54 (1964) NYC: 54 (1964) LGA: 59 (1964) Historical: 1787 - Tornadoes were reported in Connecticut, Rhode Island, Massachusetts, and New Hampshire. Wethersfield CT was hard hit by the tornado outbreak. (David Ludlum) 1946 - Saint Louis, MO, was deluged with a record 8.78 inches of rain in 24 hours. (The Weather Channel) 1967 - The sundance fire in northern Idaho was started by lightning. Winds of 50 mph carried firebrands as much as ten miles in advance to ignite new fires, and as a result, the forest fire spread twenty miles across the Selkirk Mountains in just twelve hours, burning 56,000 acres. The heat of the fire produced whirlwinds of flame with winds up to 300 mph which flung giant trees about like matchsticks. (David Ludlum) 1983: Hurricane Alicia formed on this day and was the costliest tropical cyclone in the Atlantic since Hurricane Agnes in 1972. It struck Galveston and Houston, Texas directly, causing $2.6 billion (1983 USD) in damage and killing 21 people. This storm was the worst Texas hurricane since Hurricane Carla in 1961. Also, Alicia was the first billion-dollar tropical cyclone in Texas history. 1987 - Thunderstorms developing ahead of a sharp cold front produced severe weather in the Upper Midwest during the afternoon and evening hours, with Minnesota and eastern South Dakota hardest hit. A thunderstorm in west central Minnesota spawned a tornado at Eagle Lake which killed one person and injured eight others. A thunder- storm in eastern South Dakota produced softball size hail at Warner. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1988 - Thirty five cities in twenty states in the north central and northeastern U.S. reported record high temperatures for the date, including Lamoni IA and Baltimore MD, where the mercury hit 105 degrees. Temperatures 100 degrees or above were reported in twenty-two states. Pierre SD was the hot spot in the nation with a high of 114 degrees. Bluefield WV reported eight straight days of record heat. (The National Weather Summary) 1989 - Evening thunderstorms in eastern New Mexico produced wind gusts to 66 mph at Clovis. Evening thunderstorms in West Texas produced baseball size hail around Hereford, Dimmitt, Ware and Dalhart. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

77 / 71. Warm and humid with clouds. Some isolated showers otherwise cloudy with some breaks of sun. Mid 80s warmer i there are longer breaks in the sun. Warm and humid Wed (8/16) and Thu (8/17) with some isolated showers and storms before trough and front move through Fri (8/18) with next shot at more widespread storms. Sat (8/19) - Wed (8/24) ridge builds into the GL and OV with center peaking at 594 - 600 DM. Strongest heat looks south of the areas but a warm - hot NW flow and strong heat may push through for a day 8/23 - 8/24. Rideg looks impressive with a broil under the axis. Beyond there warm overall and perhaps seasonal trend breaks with more ridging centered into the NE.

8/14 BLM: 90 EWR: 90 ACY: 89 PHL: 89 TEB: 88 LGA: 88 New Brnswck: 88 TTN: 87 NYC: 86 ISP: 85 JFK: 83

Records: Highs: EWR: 98 (2005) NYC: 99 (1988) LGA: 98 (2016) Lows: EWR: 50 (1941) NYC: 54 (1964) LGA: 69 (1964) Historical: 1936 - Temperatures across much of eastern Kansas soared above 110 degrees. Kansas City MO hit an all-time record high of 113 degrees. It was one of sixteen consecutive days of 100 degree heat for Kansas City. During that summer there were a record 53 days of 100 degree heat, and during the three summer months Kansas City received just 1.12 inches of rain. (The Kansas City Weather Almanac) 1953: Hurricane Barbara hits North Carolina as a Category 2 hurricane. Damage from the storm was relatively minor, totaling around $1.3 million (1953 USD). Most of it occurred in North Carolina and Virginia from crop damage. The hurricane left several injuries, some traffic accidents, as well as seven fatalities in the eastern United States; at least two were due to electrocution from downed power lines. Offshore Atlantic Canada, a small boat sunk, killing its crew of two. 1969: Hurricane Camille, a powerful, deadly, and destructive hurricane formed just west of the Cayman Islands on this day. It rapidly intensified, and by the time it reached western Cuba the next day, it was a Category 3 hurricane. Hurricane Camille was spawned on August 5th by a tropical wave off the coast of Africa. The storm became a tropical disturbance four days later on the 9th and a tropical storm on the 14th with a 999-millibar pressure center and 55 mph surface winds. 1987 - Slow moving thunderstorms deluged northern and western suburbs of Chicago IL with torrential rains. O'Hare Airport reported 9.35 inches in 18 hours, easily exceeding the previous 24 hour record of 6.24 inches. Flooding over a five day period resulted in 221 million dollars damage. It was Chicago's worst flash flood event, particularly for northern and western sections of the city. Kennedy Expressway became a footpath for thousands of travelers to O'Hare Airport as roads were closed. The heavy rains swelled the Des Plaines River above flood stage, and many persons had to be rescued from stalled vehicles on flooded roads. (13th- 14th) (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) (The Weather Channel) 1988 - Eighteen cities in the northeastern U.S. reported record high temperatures for the date, and the water temperature at Lake Erie reached a record 80 degrees. Portland ME reported a record fourteen straight days of 80 degree weather. Milwaukee WI reported a record 34 days of 90 degree heat for the year. Afternoon and evening thunderstorms resulted in about fifty reports of severe weather in the northeastern U.S. One person was killed at Stockbridge MI when a tornado knocked a tree onto their camper. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1989 - Afternoon thunderstorms in Illinois soaked the town of Battendorf with 2.10 inches of rain in thirty minutes. Evening thunderstorms in Montana produced wind gusts to 66 mph at Hobson. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

82 / 67 and partly/mostly cloudy. Showers and storms later / overnigh and into Tue (8/15)t with the worst more north. Wed (8/16) - Fri (8/18) warm and more humid by Thu with next round of storms / showers with trough on Friday- Sat. Beyond there models correcting with the mega ridge centered in the southern plain peaking 600 DM. Worst of the heat looks to stay south of the region but even the NW flow 8/20 - 8/23 looks warm with shot at 90. NW flow goes more N/NE for a periodas the ridge periphery wanes south and west. Overall warm with strongest heat just south. The Midsection and southeast look to broil. Tropics alive by day 9/10. Should ridge correct north - east hotter scenario. EC ridging does showup in the way beyond but seasonal tendeny would need to break to put much stak in it. https://cdn.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES16/ABI/GIFS/GOES16-NE-GEOCOLOR-600x600.gif