SACRUS

80/ 71 humid transition and warmth following behind. Partly sunny but clouds into PA and storms later into the area. Otherwise warm mid upper 80s stray 90 where and when mostly sunny. Some storms later this PM/evening as trough lifts and splits and piece o energy moves through. Wed (7/26) - Sat (7/29) hot and humid as the W. Atl Ridge retros back and links with the Western ridge and the sw flow directs strong heat into the area. Low to mid 90s Wed and Thu (7/27) with strong heat 850 mb >18c . Heat peaks Fri (7/28) and Sat (7/29) with 850MB near or >20c, upper 90s and only clouds and storms the caveat for the hot spot getting above that. By Sun (7/31) the W. A. R. is contracting and allowing trough to move into the region. Cool back near normal through the opening day or 2 of Aug before turning more humid and warm with strong heat passing near by the region by 8/3. Beyond that the Western Atlantic Ridge is pushing west with trough into the NE pushing back to the GL and Western ridge ejecting continuous spurts of heat. Overall warm, humid and storms chances into the second week with heat at times and strong heat nearby, taking a stronger W.AR to force heights to direct it into the area.

that ne-NJ corridoor will close in on 18 - 20 by Sat. Jun below normal, Jul warm/humid, Aug will be the determinant on the met summer.

7/23 TEB: 89 EWR: 88 LGA: 87 PHL: 86 New Brnswck: 86 BLM: 85 NYC: 85 TTN: 84 ACY: 83 JFK: 83 ISP: 83

breaks in the clouds moving through

Records that could be challenged. Caveat storms, clouds. 850 MB temps forecast 18c - 21c offer near or record potential. Could be close. Fri 7/28 EWR: 101 PHL: 100 LGA: 98 Sat 7/29 EWR: 100 LGA: 97 PHL: 98

Records: Highs: EWR: 102 (2022) NYC: 97 (2010) LGA: 98 (2022) Lows: EWR: 55 (1947) NYC: 56 (1893) LGA: 59 (1992) Historical: 1886 - Rain fell at Lawrence, KS, for the first time in four weeks. Rain fell over much of the state of Kansas that day relieving a severe drought which began in May. The very dry weather ruined crops in Kansas. (David Ludlum) 1936 - A record all time Kansas state high temperature set just 6 days earlier was tied in the town of Alton, located in Osborne County. (US National Weather Service Wichita) 1942 - The temperature at Las Vegas, NV, hit 117 degrees to set an all-time record for that location. The record was tied on July 19, 2005. 1947 - One of the most powerful strokes of lightning ever measured yielded 345,000 amperes of electricity in Pittsburgh, PA. (The Weather Channel) 1952 - The temperature at Louisville, GA, soared to 112 degrees to establish a state record. (The Weather Channel) 1952: The temperature at Louisville, Georgia soared to 112 degrees to establish a state record. The temperature also hit 112 degrees in Greenville, Georgia on August 20, 1983. 1980 - Claudette, a weak tropical storm, deluged southeastern Texas with torrential rains. The Houston suburb of Alvin received 43 inches, a 24 hour record for the U.S. (David Ludlum) 1987 - Twenty-one cities in the eastern U.S. reported record high temperatures for the date. The high of 91 degrees at Beckley, WV, was their hottest reading in 25 years of records, and marked their third straight day of record 90 degree heat. Bakersfield, CA, dipped to 60 degrees, marking their eighth straight morning of record cool weather. (The National Weather Summary) 1988 - Afternoon and evening thunderstorms produced large hail and damaging winds in Oklahoma, and over Nebraska and Wisconsin. Thunderstorms produced wind gusts to 75 mph at Brainerd, NE. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1989 - Afternoon thunderstorms produced some flash flooding in New Mexico. Albuquerque, NM, was deluged with an inch and a half of rain in forty minutes. Evening thunderstorms soaked Whie Pine, PA, with two inches of rain in one hour. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

75 / 66 and mostly cloudy with some showers into P and SNJ. Scattered showers into the region. Low - mid 80s (if enough sun). Tue (7/25) transition back to a very humid and hot is commpleting as the W. Atlantic Ridge expands west and splits the trough. Some potential widespread showers and storms Tue PM. Wed (7/26) - Sun (7/30) the heat is on as sw flow pulls the western heat east 850 mb tmps >18c and near or peaking >20c Fri (7/28) / Sat (7/29). W. Atl Ridge in the classic Bermuda position. Some storms ride the periphery of the ridge to our north but wouldn't rule out some storms in northern sections Fri pm. Peak heat mid - upper 90, we'll see if perhaps enough sunshine and day heating gets the hot spots in NE-NJ or LGA to 100. Will be close. Ridge contracts and trough and front push south Sun (7/30) with like some storms. Cool back near normal to open next month before warming into the first week. Western Atlantic ridge expands west again, Western ridge anchored with trough into the NE backing into the GL, looks to go humid and warm towards the end of the first week of the month. https://cdn.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES16/ABI/GIFS/GOES16-NE-GEOCOLOR-600x600.gif

7/23 EWR: 93 TEB: 89 LGA: 88 New Brnswck: 88 ACY: 88 NYC: 88 PHL: 88 BLM: 87 ISP: 87 TTN: 87 JFK: 86

EWR gets one 7/23 EWR: 93 TEB: 89 LGA: 88 New Brnswck: 88 ACY: 88 NYC: 88 PHL: 88 BLM: 87 ISP: 87 TTN: 87 JFK: 86

Up to 88 but more clouds now and spotty showers into NE PA / NWNJ

Records: Highs: EWR: 102 (2011) - and that day was mainly cloudy if i recall right NYC: 100 (2011) LGA: 100 (1955) Lows: EWR: 55 (1939) NYC: 58 (1890) 6th record low in July for that year 1890 - would love to see the monthly total averages LGA: 59 (1992) Historical: 1788 - A weather diary kept by George Washington recorded that the center of a hurricane passed directly over his Mount Vernon home. The hurricane crossed eastern North Carolina and Virginia before moving into the Central Appalachians. Norfolk, VA, reported houses destroyed, trees uprooted, and crops leveled to the ground. (David Ludlum) 1788: Called the George Washington's Hurricane, this storm originated near Bermuda on the 19th before making landfall in Virginia. It passed directly over the Lower Chesapeake Bay and Mount Vernon, the home of George Washington. This track is very similar to the path of the Chesapeake-Potomac hurricane of 1933. At Norfolk, winds increased at 5 p.m. on the 23rd with the wind originating from the northeast. At 12:30 a.m., the wind suddenly shifted to the south and "blew a perfect hurricane, tearing down chimneys, fences"...some corn was also leveled. Also, large trees were uprooted, and houses were moved from their foundations. Port Royal and Hobb's Hole experienced a violent northeast gale which drove several vessels ashore. In Fredricksburg, vast quantities of corn, tobacco, and fruit were destroyed. Houses and trees fell in significant numbers across Northumberland, Lancaster, Richmond, and Westmoreland counties. Crops were destroyed, and many livestock perished in Lower Mathews County. Many plantations saw their houses leveled. Homes were flooded with water six feet deep, and several inhabitants drowned. Historical figures of the time logged the storm's antics. George Washington noted the sinking of the small ship Federalist and uprooted trees. Colonel James Madison, the father of the future president, experienced the passing of great winds and rains near Orange. In Alexandria, damage to wheat, tobacco, and corn was "beyond description." The information above is from the Weather Prediction Center and noted American historian David Ludlum. 1898 - A two hour thunderstorm deluged Atlanta, GA, with 4.32 inches of rain. More than a foot of water flooded Union Depot. Many street car motors burned out while trying to run through flooded streets. It grew so dark before the afternoon storm that gas lights were needed. (The Weather Channel) 1923 - Sheridan, WY, was drenched with 4.41 inches of rain, an all-time 24 hour record for that location. Associated flooding washed out 20 miles of railroad track. (22nd-23rd) (The Weather Channel) 1987 - Thunderstorms produced a record ten inches of rain in six and a half hours at Minneapolis, MN, including 5.26 inches in two hours. Flash flooding claimed two lives and caused 21.3 million dollars damage. Streets in Minneapolis became rushing rivers, parking lots became lakes, and storm sewers spouted like geysers. A tornado hit Maple Grove, MN, causing five million dollars damage. Baseball size hail was reported at Olivia, MN. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1988 - Thunderstorms produced severe weather in Lower Michigan and northern Ohio, over eastern sections of the Dakotas, and over the Central High Plains Region. Showers and thunderstorms soaked Wilmington, NC, with another two inches of rain, following six and a half inches the previous day. (The National Weather Summary) 1989 - Morning thunderstorms in the central U.S. drenched central Oklahoma with up to six inches of rain. Afternoon thunderstorms produced wind gusts to 85 mph at Fort Smith, AR. Evening thunderstorms over Florida spawned a tornado which touched down three times in south Fort Myers causing nearly three quarters of a million dollars damage. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

81 / 60 with another gorgeous summer day on tap. Party to mostly sunny warm upper 80s and a ew stray 90 readings. Next 48 hours are less humid, warm near normal through Tue (7/25) mid and upper 80s some hot spots could get to 90 to jump start heat legnth. Wed (7/26) the Western Atlantic ridge retros back and pumps heights, splits the trough and brings a more steamy sw flow and start of the seasons hottest period so far with widespread 90s, could be some storms and clouds with transition. By Thu (7/27) strong heat from the western ridge is pushing east 850 MB temps >16c approaching >18c Fri (7/28) and near 20c Sat (7/29). The Western Atl Ridge contracts a bit by next Sat / Sun (7/30) with storms but still overall hot with storm chances to close the month and open next. Beyond into next month looks ovrall warm to start, more humid and similar to earlier in July, storm chances with strong ridge into the west and trough into the GL/NE. The Western Atlantic ridge pulsing back west later in the period. Tropics to be watched SE.

http://www.swellmatrix.com/sst/sst-northeast8day.png

7/22 EWR: 87 TeB: 86 JFK: 86 BLM: 85 PHL: 85 NYC: 85 New Brnswck; 84 LGA: 84 ISP: 84 ACY: 84 TTN: 82

Records: Highs: EWR: 108 ( 2011) the infamous torch rom 12 yrs ago NYC: 104 (2011) LGA: 104 (2011) Lows: EWR: 56 (1944) NYC: 58 (1890) LGA: 62 (1956) Historical: 1918 - A single bolt of lightning struck 504 sheep dead in their tracks at the Wasatch National Forest in Utah. Sheep often herd together in storms, and as a result the shock from the lightning bolt was passed from one animal to another. (David Ludlum) 1986 - Hurricane Estelle passed 120 miles south of the Hawaiian Islands creating a ten to twenty foot surf. The large swells resulted from a combination of high tides, a full moon, and 50 mph winds. The hurricane also deluged Oahu Island with as much as 6.86 inches of rain on the 24th and 25th of the month. (Storm Data) 1987 - Barrow, AK, receives 1.38 inches in 24 hours on the 21st and 22nd, an all-time record for that location. The average annual precipitation for Barrow is just 4.75 inches. Thunderstorms in Montana produced 4 to 6 inches of rain in Glacier County causing extensive flooding along Divide Creek. Missoula, MT, received 1.71 inches of rain in 24 hours, a record for the month of July. (The National Weather Summary) (The Weather Channel) 1988 - Six cities in the south central U.S. reported record low temperatures for the date, including Pueblo, CO, with a reading of 48 degrees. Thunderstorms over the Atlantic Coast Region drenched Wilmington, NC, with 6.49 inches of rain in about eight hours. (The National Weather Summary) 1988: Dust devils are not a unique phenomenon, but usually they stay minimal. This was not the case in Dickinson County, Iowa where a powerful dust devil developed on the edge of Lake Okoboji. It picked up whole sections of several docks and swept away all of the loose dirt in the area. Estimated winds exceeded 60 mph. 1989 - Showers and thunderstorms prevailed across the southeastern third of the country. Afternoon thunderstorms in Florida produced wind gusts to 86 mph at Zephyrhills, and gusts to 92 mph at Carrollwood and Lutz. Thunderstorm winds gusting to 69 mph at Crystal Lake damaged nineteen mobile homes. (Storm Data) (The National Weather Summary) 1993: The levee, holding back the flooding Mississippi River at Kaskaskia, Illinois, ruptures, forcing the town's people to flee on barges. The incident at Kaskaskia was the most dramatic event of the flood. At 9:48 a.m., the levee broke, leaving the people of Kaskaskia with no escape route other than two Army Corp of Engineers barges. By 2 p.m., the entire town was underwater.

79 / 60 and very nice out. Partly to mostly sunny with clouds pressing south. Great stretch of weather and reprieve from the sauna. Near normal the next few days and rain free with lower humidity. Mid / upper 80s could see stray 90 in the hot spots through Tue (7/24). Wed (7/25) the western atlantic ridge is building west and a more humid flow develops along with height rises forcing the trough to lift out and split out so some storms then. By Thu heat is pushing east from the western ridge and a 4 - 5 days, peaking with strong heat by next fri (7/28) into next weekend Sun (7/30). Models have 850 mb temperatures >18c , pushing 20c at times. So hot, humid with a couple days of strong heat. The W/ Atl Ridge contracts towards the 31st/1st with storms and open the next month likely humid and stormy again with the western ridge pumping trough into the GL/NE and the western atlantic ridge expanding back west and retrograding towards the end of the first week o next month.

Milan (not sure how to link or paste a twiiter post) https://twitter.com/rainmaker1973/status/1682473249538560000?s=46&t=Qf9RyQ9OmWnn2YixI_I7hQ

7/21 BLM: 89 EWR: 88 TEB: 88 LGA: 87 PHL: 86 New Brnswck: 85 ACY: 85 NYC: 84 JFK: 83 TTN: 83 ISP: 81

Records: Highs: EWR: 103 (2011) intense heat in 2011 was peaking NYC: 104 (1977) LGA: 100 (2019) Lows: EWR: 58 (1951) NYC: 55 (1890) LGA: 62 (1974) Historical: 1911 - The temperature at Painter, WY, dipped to 10 degrees to equal the record low for July for the continental U.S. (The Weather Channel) 1934 - The temperature reached 109 degrees at Cincinnati, OH, to cap their hottest summer of record. The state record for Ohio was established that day with a reading of 113 degrees near the town of Gallipolis. (David Ludlum) 1975 - Six inches of rain fell across Mercer County, NJ, in just ten hours causing the worst flooding in twenty years. Assunpink Creek crested eleven feet above flood stage at Hamilton and Trenton, the highest level of record. Traffic was brought to a standstill, and railway service between New York City and Washington D.C. was cut off for two days. Flooding left 1000 persons homeless, and caused an estimated 25 million dollars damage. (David Ludlum) 1987 - Thunderstorms produced severe weather from Utah to North Dakota, spawning a dozen tornadoes in North Dakota. Thunderstorms in North Dakota also produced baseball size hail at Clifford which caused four million dollars damage, and high winds which toppled a couple of eighty foot towers cutting off power to the town of Blanchard. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1987: An F4 tornado ravages the Teton Wilderness and Yellowstone National Park in Wyoming. The tornado's violent winds destroy millions of trees on a 24.3-mile track that traverses the Continental Divide at an elevation of 10,170 feet. 1988 - While cool air invaded the central U.S., unseasonably hot weather continued over the western states. The temperature at Spring Valley, NV, soared from a morning low of 35 degrees to an afternoon high of 95 degrees. Fallon, NV, reported an all-time record high of 108 degrees, and Death Valley, CA, reported their sixth straight day of 120 degree heat. (The Weather Channel) (The National Weather Summary) 1989 - Afternoon thunderstorms over Florida produced wind gusts to 92 mph at Jacksonville, damaging thirteen light planes at Herlong Field. Five cities in Texas reported record low temperatures for the date. Corpus Christi, TX, equalled their record low for the date with a reading of 71 degrees, and then tied their record high for the date that afternoon with a reading of 97 degrees. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

71 / 69 rain moved through and clouds starting to break. Could shape up to be a fairly pleasant day but chances of storms continue as front moves through and trough settles in. Brief reprieve before the humid / furnace returns and enters to end the month. Sat (7/22) - Tue (7/25) looks very nice near normal (mid - upper 80s) and mainly dry / rain free through Tue (7/25 AM). Western ridge continues to flex pieces of heat east and as the trough over the northeast lifts out and splits due to the backing Western Atlantic Ridge the warm southwest flow will heat the region up Wed (7/26) to close the month. As the transition occurs return of storms and humidity. Strong heat from the west >18c peaking >20c in the period will bring the hottest weather of the summer so far. We'll see with recent heavy rains if the century mark is feasible or out of the question. Beyond there overall warm and humid a strong heat is nearby and trough is back into the GL/NE. Western Atlantic Ridge will be watched building west into early August.

Records Highs: EWR: 102 (1980) NYC: 101 (1980) LGA: 101 (1991) Lows: EWR: 59 (1997) NYC: 55 (1890) LGA: 61 (1997) Historical: 1915: A record high temperature of 115 degrees occurred in Yosemite Valley at the National Park Headquarters, California (around 4,000 feet elevation). This reading was the warmest day in a streak of 7 consecutive days of 110 degrees or higher at Yosemite Valley from the 19th through the 25th. 1930 - The temperature at Washington D.C. soared to an all-time record of 106 degrees. The next day Millsboro reached 110 degrees to set a record for the state of Delaware. July 1930 was one of the hottest and driest summers in the U.S., particularly in the Missouri Valley where severe drought conditions developed. Toward the end of the month state records were set for Kentucky with 114 degrees, and Mississippi with 115 degrees. (David Ludlum) 1934 - The temperature at Keokuk, IA, soared to 118 degrees to establish a state record. (The Weather Channel) 1953 - Twenty-two inches of hail reportedly fell northeast of Dickinson, ND. (The Weather Channel) 1986 - The temperature at Charleston, SC, hit 104 degrees for the second day in a row to tie their all-time record high. (The Weather Channel) 1977: A flash flood hits Johnstown, Pennsylvania, on this day in 1977, killing 84 people and causing millions of dollars in damages. This flood came 88 years after the infamous Great Flood of 1889 that killed more than 2,000 people in Johnstown. 1987 - Thunderstorms produced severe weather across Minnesota, Wisconsin and Michigan. Thunderstorms produced wind gusts to 87 mph at Mosinee, WI, and strong thunderstorm winds capsized twenty-six boats on Grand Traverse Bay drowning two women. Thunderstorms produced nine inches of rain at Shakopee, MN, with 7.83 inches reported in six hours at Chaska, MN. Thunderstorms in north central Nebraska produced hail as large as golf balls in southwestern Cherry County, which accumulated to a depth of 12 inches. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1988 - The temperature at Redding, CA, soared to an all-time record high of 118 degrees. Showers and thunderstorms produced much needed rains from New England to southern Texas. Salem, IN, was deluged with 7.2 inches of rain resulting in flash flooding. (The National Weather Summary) 1989 - Showers and thunderstorms in the Middle Atlantic Coast Region soaked Wilmington, DE, with 2.28 inches of rain, pushing their total for the period May through July past the previous record of 22.43 inches. Heavy rain over that three month period virtually wiped out a 16.82 inch deficit which had been building since drought conditions began in 1985. Thunderstorms in central Indiana deluged Lebanon with 6.50 inches of rain in twelve hours, and thunderstorms over Florida produced wind gusts to 84 mph at Flagler Beach. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 2005: Hurricane Emily made landfall in northern Mexico. When the central pressure fell to 29.43 inches of mercury, and its sustained winds reached 160 mph on the 16th, Emily became the strongest hurricane ever to form before August, breaking a record set by Hurricane Dennis just six days before. It was also the earliest Category 5 hurricane ever recorded in the Atlantic basin, beating Hurricane Allen's old record by nearly three weeks.

7/20 TEB: 92 EWR: 88 PHL: 88 NYC: 88 New Brnswck: 87 TTN: 86 LGA: 85 ISP: 85 JFK: 84 BLM: 83 ACY: 83